Phillies Prospect Lists

[allentown]

Nothing's going to be perfect. They could set a minimum bonus for anyone signed or a minimum bonus by draft slot. They could give the international kids a repeat year on draft, but I don't see that being a huge help, because then they are like college seniors, who seldom receive much. I like the idea of each team getting a pot of money and minimum bonuses per slot, which add up to about 80% of the allocation.

[andyb]

I trust Law more than Bowden, but this list has Painter at 26 and Abel at 45:

Top 50 MLB prospects: Jordan Walker, Zac Veen top Jim Bowden's rankings

[flyers19rw]

Where di these two "experts" have Ranger Suarez in the spring of '21?

[andyb]

Well that would be Ranger's 4th MLB season (2021) so he was not on any prospect lists then.....

Back in 2017-2018 he was seen as a fringe prospect. He got better. It happens.

[Matt_Winkelman]

As pointed out, he graduated during the 2019 season. Baseball America had him as their 11th ranked prospect in 2018 and 8th in 2019. I had him 14th heading into 2019. Most reports had him as a near MLB ready back end starter (with noted good defense). He then added a little velocity and just got incrementally better across the board. This year he has totally changed up his pitch mix, dropping his slider for a curveball and adding a cutter. There were some who really like him, he did hit like his 99th percentile outcome, but like a 75th percentile, above projection, but not above what people thought was possible.

In the Spring of 2021 generally there was bemoaning that he missed 2020 due to COVID he couldn't test negative for, and that had he been in the bullpen they would have probably made the playoffs. I think there was generally more sentiment at the time he was trending towards good multi inning reliever, but then he was better than that and carried the velocity and other gains into the rotation.

Prospect lists miss on guys all the time, I would say when it came to Ranger they generally have been there along his strange journey adapting with the changes.

He was a fringe prospect back prior to the 2017 season because he was like 88-93 and during his disgusting 2014 in the VSL he was 85-87.

[zambonir]

8th isn't exactly chopped liver, even in the Phillies system at the time. Would be great if Sanchez - who already started with more stuff - became a similar surprise (or just solid enough to make the Mead thing sting a little less. Of course Mead still has some ways to go himself).

[andyb]

It looks like we missed on Cole Irvin too. It is really hard to know which players can succeed on command and control. It did help that Ranger picked up a couple of mph on his fastball, but he has really turned out better than anyone could have anticipated in his minor league days (even in the upper minors).

Plassmeyer has less stuff than Ranger so he isn't ranked anywhere. I see they just optioned him instead of DFA'ing him, so I imagine they see some promise there even as a change of pace reliever.

[Austinfan]

Pitchers surprise all the time b/c small changes can have big impacts.
Fix mechanics and add 1-2 MPH above the increase that comes from physical maturity.
Tweak a grip and a mediocre slider becomes a plus pitch, and a two pitch starter becomes a three pitch starter.

I think the key with Ranger is he doesn't use a lot of energy in his motion, the max effort guys tend to get injured, lose command as they tire, and make mistakes. Ranger is more like a machine, same with Nola when he's on.

Sanchez hitting 93-94 on a regular basis is promising, just tweaking his secondary pitches for an incremental improvement could result in a big jump, since he has decent command and good velocity for LHP.

[schillingfan]

I saw Irvin pitch against the Rail Riders. The scoreboard didn’t show a single pitch over 90. I didn’t see him as a big league pitcher. Nothing about his time with the big club suggested he could succeed. I thought he was the quintessential AAAA pitcher.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Cole Irvin at home - 83.1 IP 1.94 ERA 4 HR 14 BB 61 K
Cole Irvin on the road - 59.0 IP 4.88 ERA 13 HR 12 BB 3 K

Baseball Prospectus' DRA which is probably the most weighted for parks metric out there has him at 4.62 this year after 6.05 last year. He is very much a product of his home ballpark.

[andyb]

I did not say he was a big miss. Just meant he is a useful arm. It was more looking at Plassmeyer (whose stuff may be a notch below Irvin much less Suarez). Plassmeyer could be a useful arm to have around. If we have a predominantly right-handed starting half it is useful to have a 2-3 inning left-handed long reliever in the bullpen. Sanchez is more likely that guy now (as Falter seems better suited to starting), but it is nice to have options. Can't imagine Plassmeyer will make it through the offseason on the 40, but we probably should have tried a little harder to keep Irvin when we had him.

[Philsmania]

Cole Irvin at home - 83.1 IP 1.94 ERA 4 HR 14 BB 61 K
Cole Irvin on the road - 59.0 IP 4.88 ERA 13 HR 12 BB 3 K

Baseball Prospectus' DRA which is probably the most weighted for parks metric out there has him at 4.62 this year after 6.05 last year. He is very much a product of his home ballpark.

Caveat emptor!

[andyb]

I missed that Hao Yu Lee was the Best Batting Prospect for the FSL as well. https://t.co/VpOVybw0Kq

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) September 1, 2022

Baseball America is doing their best tools pieces. Andrew Painter obviously dominated the SAL and FSL best pitcher categories. On the interesting side, Tommy McCollum took home best RP for the FSL, and Arturo De Freitas best defensive C.

— Matt Winkelman ( @Matt_Winkelman ) September 1, 2022

[Austinfan]

McCollum is an under the radar FA signing from 2021 who had a really good season in the FSL, and at 22 could rise rapidly if he repeats at higher levels. 6-5 260, 94-96, t 98, splitter, curve and cutter, so he has the raw materials for a RP.

[zambonir]

It must say something about what a lost cause he'd already become that nobody here (in any thread) has even bothered to lament the DFA of Luis Garcia.

[BaseballCat]

All glove with little hit. He is a nice kid and still young. While I doubt anyone picks him up, he will get another look somewhere. Even the Phils

[andyb]

I guess I lament it a bit, but now my biggest thought is that it might be greater than 50-50 he clears waivers. Was definitely skeptical of the small offensive improvement last year. He did show good fielding tools in spring training, but he really has not hit well at an age-appropriate level since GCL. It is not his fault he got rushed then missed a year because of the pandemic, but the reality is it hurt his offensive development.

I do hope he clears waivers. Then next season he could play without too much pressure. If he clears waivers now there is zero pressure to put him back on the 40 later.

The bigger question of course is the Latin American team that justified the $2.5 million bonus in the first place. To me at the time it seemed like a dramatic overpay for a defensive shortstop without loud offensive tools (i.e. speed and power). I have the same concerns about Bergolla too. Now these concerns are not about signing him in the first place. He was a decent prospect that most likely just did not develop. It is more about whether we should be paying $1 million for a guy like him instead of $2.5 million. If we are going to buy near the top of the market we should be getting the tools to justify that price. The fact is, the guys without tools tend not to develop. Or if they do they are often AAAA type utility players. If I invest a million dollar bonus I want a chance at someone who could be an above average starter.

[zambonir]

For sure, the lamentation is inseparable from the bonus. And he was still listed by MLB as a Top 15 prospect. The bright side is the Phillies can afford to lose him at this point (and were willing to eat the $2.5 million, as it were).

[allentown]

the Phillies can afford to lose him at this point (and were willing to eat the $2.5 million, as it were).

But they can't afford it. That's exactly the point. When you pop huge $ for guys with limited tools (Ortiz basically batting practice power from a guy who was big for his age at the time -- likely a future MLB player, but not a guy worth the $4 million bonus) you don't have money left to sign a truly strong prospect and are left filling out that draft from the bargain basement. If you are spending well over half of your international bonus allocation (in some cases 90% of it) on a single player and failing year after year to turn that spending into an impactful MLB player, then something is seriously wrong with the baseball professionals responsible for finding and signing talent. I agree with AF that we do fine on the small $ signings, but 75% of the international and draft games is getting your top $ signing right. With at least Nola/Painter/Abel we've made strides in fixing our first-round draft pick woes. Still no sign of significant progress on the international front and same guy heading the effort.

[andyb]

Before the season I might have agreed that Garcia had a higher upside than Stott. Not now though. Stott has shown advanced strike zone recognition and power at upper minor league levels. While Garcia has more defensive upside I think the gap on offense is much wider now. Stott could be a really good hitter for a middle infielder. I just don't see Garcia doing anything close to that offensively.

I think I was right about this December comment...

Of course this discussion started when BA omitted him from their top 10 list and I thought he might have snuck on the end of the list over guys like Vierling and Marchan. Not sure Vierling or Marchan are great prospects, but clearly they are better than Garcia (though BA was touting Hunter Markwardt in their chat, so nobody is perfect).

Bottom line is Garcia needed to hit this year and he didn't. Even if he hit .250 with some walks it would have been enough to protect him one more year.