Phillies Prospect Lists

[andyb]

Hans Crouse 6th? It really takes these guys years to change their perception of a prospect. He really looked like a reliever when he was up briefly last year. Then a year of not pitching and his ranking is essentially unchanged?

As we have noted, there is a big dropoff in this system after the top 5. I'd consider Hao Yu Lee 6th. Liking Muzziotti much more of late too. Rickardo Perez also seems ranked a little low considering his performance.

[Taudawg]

I would have Alexeis Azuaje a little higher - I'm keeping in eye on his box scores. Prospect lists don't seem to favor true 2Bs. Right now, I feel as though Azuaje is above Luis Garcia who is somehow still ranked #16... based on his 2018 season in rookie ball (still)

[andyb]

Garcia is a year older than Azuaje and a level higher. He also has much better BB/K ratios at that higher level. Is considered as true SS as opposed to likely 2B. Lots of reasons Garcia should be ranked higher though neither really projects as a great prospect these days unfortunately. Garcia was actually pretty good last year too (780 OPS at Clearwater).

[Aquapong]

These lists are kind of strange. Why not have a top 10 and then a bunch of honorable mentions? Or a group that could be starting pitchers, starting 9, or high leverage bp and then a group of guys that could be contributors.

[Austinfan]

I'd withhold judgment on Garcia, he had a rough start healthwise, very good plate discipline, matter of adding enough strength to be an effective line drive hitter, but he's a plus fielder, so anything over .700 OPS makes him a starter.

[andyb]

That is kind of what I was saying. He still does some good things and has some tools. He also has been getting hurt and not improving at the rate he should. So a ranking for him around 16 is probably where he belongs now, though he could be better. He has actually been better the last few weeks. 777 OPS the last 15 games with as many walks as Ks (15). 400+ OBP.

He was really bad after his injury. But if he is a 700 OPS guy at Jersey Shore now when healthy that is pretty good given the extreme pitcher's park it is. Could easily see him as a 750-800 OPS guy next year at Reading if he finishes the year the way he has been playing lately. Then he'd rank top 10 again.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Maybe a dumb question but how is Darik Hall only ranked 17?

[zambonir]

I assume because he's old and still has a limited ceiling. He'll also come off the list pretty quickly no?

[Florida_Sunshine]

No disrespect to you but I am not buying that. He has been ignored in previous rankings, gets called up, plays stellar, produces great WAR. This is a flaw in the rankings.

Cut him and see how many teams want him.

[zambonir]

I am no expert (especially about prospect rankings) but I have seen a fair amount of skepticism about him still - that the league will catch up to him, and that he ultimately is just a bench bat or platoon DH (though both of those things certainly valuable as a LHB).

But it also seems to me they don't actually pay very close attention to the most recent developments, or to major league performance? Vs just incorporating the new draft picks and minor league stats?

Of course he just got the Phillies back into tonight's game.

[BostonRoss]

The people doing the rankings value potential upside rather than expected major league value. Most of the players on the list above Hall will end up with zero major league value, but they all have potential. No doubt Hall was underrated as a prospect (even by the Phillies before his callup). His WAR projected to 162 games is 4.5, but it seems unlikely he'll be a 4.5 WAR player each year.

[DurhamBull]

I think some of the skepticism around Hall comes from remembering what an amazing first season Rhys Hoskins had (his major league debut was five years ago yesterday), and comparing that to his subsequent performance. He's never approached that first season OPS again. I don't mean that as an argument for or against keeping Hoskins or even a criticism of him, just as an observation about why people might be hesitant to believe that Hall's performance will continue at this level.

Rhys Hoskins Stats | Baseball-Reference.com

[andyb]

It is probably a misnomer to say that Hall has played to a 4.5 WAR pro-rated. He is being platooned and he has significant platoon splits. In a platoon role he'd get about 120 starts so his pace is more in the 3.0-3.5 WAR range.

That is good, of course, but whenever an older player puts up a higher OPS in the majors than he was in AAA one has to consider small sample sizes and first time around the league effects.

Hall HAS improved the last 2 years, however. He really does look like he could be a second division starter at 1B (i.e. ranked in the 16-30 range of all starters). Maybe there is even a place for him in Philly if Hoskins were dealt, most likely part of a platoon (where a right-handed bat like Castellanos or Realmuto or Bohm would play 1B against LHP) designed to save money to pay for other needs on the roster.

It is admittedly hard to rank him since his minor league performances only looked like a top 30 prospect last season. Before that he looked like a typical minor league slugger that struck out too much to be a real prospect. He won't be eligible in a couple of weeks so the point is moot. He is playing like someone who should have been closer to our top 10, but that is also in a system where everyone after the top 5 is really not that great.

[BostonRoss]

I wasn't saying Hall would put up 4.5 WAR in an actual full season. I just read the number off baseball-reference.com, which pro-rates to a 162-game season. Almost no one plays 162 games, of course.

[andyb]

The comment was as much about the splits as the playing time. He is 0-6 against LHP so far. They have really been careful to avoid that, pinch hitting for him sometimes. In AAA this year he has a 1017 OPS against RHP and 567 against LHP and his career splits in the minors are also large. He might be a negative WAR player against LHP.

Though he is still good enough to hold down a platoon role against RHP and be productive in that role. He just has Hoskins in his way at 1B and a host of other characters at DH including Harper. I hope they make him one of the 2 extra September players because I do think he is a weapon pinch hitting. Otherwise he probably goes to the minors when Bryce comes back because there is really no role for him on the roster absent another injury.

[allentown]

This discussion prompted a thought about how little the Phillies have thought critically about how they do and can succeed in he draft and prospect development in the not-too-distant past. We developed Ryan Howard, Ruf, Hoskins, and now Hall -- and yet we wasted a #1 pick on LGJ and $4 million on Ortiz. We seem to have a real knack for spotting and developing collegiate sluggers on the super cheap. With so much success going the low-cost route, why stretch for iffy, expensive. LGJ was an inexcusable choice (besides falling in love with batting-practice, nobody picked up on his total lack of drive to succeed as an MLB player -- kid undoubtedly a good family man, but pocketed the money, got married, instantly ate himself out of any chance of success and didn't seem to feel sad about that -- not everyone is equipped for all of the out-of-town and travel of MiLB and to a lesser extent MLB. The scout needs to learn that about a #1 pick).

[zambonir]

It doesn't really seem like Hall is being platooned, because there just aren't that many LH starters (it doesn't even feel like they PH for him that often).

In the old NL his bench job would probably be safe, though of course he also wouldn't have a DH job. Thomson said he expects it to be a tough transition for him to playing less (but that implies he sticks around).

At this point Harper might not be back before roster expansion anyway so they probably keep both Hall and Maton w/o ever optioning one of them. But I guess we'll see. Certainly Hall over Munoz or Camargo as the extra piece.

His presence does add a twist to the Hoskins debate, if it really is one. You definitely could get by with Hall as the LHB and a cheap RH slugger (in addition to the guys the Phillies already have) if he's for real, but also probably can't know that before next season.

One caveat on LGJ - he wasn't a true #1 pick. Obviously still a huge bust, and obviously lots of guys taken from 30 to 60 or 70 (he was 39) still work out, but I'm sure he's also someone they never would have taken at 1-20, maybe even not 25 (I guess had they had a real pick that year it would have been around there).

[Austinfan]

If they want a cheap RH hitter for the bench/DH platoon, Sands might be a possibility.

I'd send him to winter ball to play 1B, corner OF and even 3B - as a 3rd C/DH who could fill in a multiple spots, he'd have a lot of value. He just has to be good enough to fill in for a couple innings to provide flexibility in the late innings.

[zambonir]

I don't think Rhys is actually going anywhere. His last-year arb salary will be a good value, and having him in the line-up/the comp pick is also good value. The only way it happens at this point is if the combination of your trade return and what you spend his $ on is unexpectedly good (which probably means a top of the rotation starter or the prospect capital to help get it, plus Turner or the equivalent in free agency).

[Aquapong]

What do you guys have against Louis Gossett Jr?