Phillies Prospect Lists

[zambonir]

It is just indisputable though that Klentak started with a good system and now has one that is universally below average.

I don't see how you can put that on Klentak though. In fact, he inherited a 20th-ranked system (BP 2015, up from 24th in 2014) that was ranked 4th in 2016 because:

the Phillies added six new top-ten prospects in the last calendar year between the 2015 draft and the Ken Giles and Cole Hamels trades.

Your Top 10 that year:

SS J.P. Crawford
OF Nick Williams
RHP Jake Thompson
RHP Franklyn Kilome
OF Roman Quinn
OF Cornelius Randolph
RHP Mark Appel
C Jorge Alfaro
C Andrew Knapp
RHP Ben Lively

2017:

SS J.P. Crawford
C Jorge Alfaro
OF Nick Williams
OF Mickey Moniak
RHP Franklyn Kilome
RHP Adonis Medina
RHP Sixto Sanchez
OF Roman Quinn
LF Cornelius Randolph

What we have to conclude here is not that Klentak wrecked a good system but that the rankings of the system in 2016 and 2017, were extremely, extremely wrong, if only in hindsight. (And he did in fact trade away three of the nine best players from 2017 (there was no 10th on that list, Kingery, Hoskins, Gowdy and Cozens were the "wild cards"). They were three of the Top 4 in 2018.

He will be judged on 2017-2020 at the end of the day. I do give him a mulligan on 2016 given the weak draft and the reliance on previous regime.

[andyb]

I bet if you looked at the top 100 list today, 90% of them were acquired by their team since October 2015. It does not matter if the 2016 and 2017 rankings were correct except to say our system was considered above average at the time.

The system today has been built largely by Klentak and is now considered below average. That was done with the benefit of high draft picks, and until last year, above average international spending.

How is that NOT on Klentak? We have not produced a single international top 100 prospect on his watch. Morales is decent and I have high hopes for Rojas. But there probably have been 40+ top 100 prospects identified by other organizations in the same time period. And the 2016 draft has produced no top 100 prospects at the time. 2017 and 2018 look better, but Bohm should be there and Howard is our lone example of draft results above the pick level (Haseley was about what was expected).

Our top prospects from 2016-2017 don't really matter that much when you consider the system today. It is the output from the past 4 years that has been subpar.

[zambonir]

Obviously it's not what it should be. But it appears the good system Klentak inherited was only good at the top because of trades. What he inherited in terms of drafting and development was bottom-third stuff (and epically bad for several years before 2014). And I suppose Jordan shares the blame for some of the guys in those highly-ranked classes not panning out.

And then you have to wonder about Sal. Is he unfirable because of his long history here? Has Minnitti done anything to revamp international or do they just leave it alone? I have a hard time crediting any big international signing to the GM, but obviously whatever the Braves have going on (including development) beats us handily. I don't think analytics or domestic scouting infrastructure helps you there. Clearly Minnitti and Bonifay have revamped their departments; has Sal?

Another reason the system has gotten worse is the free agents. Howard and Seabold were our 2/3 picks in 2017; the disappointing but still significant Gowdy and Stobbe in 2016. We sat out those rounds in 2018 and gave up our 2nd last year and this year That's an area where the failure of the major league team also makes the minors worse. This is the real issue, I think - we're behaving like the Amaro-era teams without sniffing the playoffs, and the bill will once again come due. But Klentak is insulated from that to some extent, IMO, because his boss probably doesn't care about the minors any more than Gillick or Giles did. Klentak will be gone long before we wish we still had Sixto or Crawford (if that's how it goes), or he'll still be here because he has a ring.

[Austinfan]

Klentak probably didn't have the people he wanted in place until after 2017, and even then, it takes time to install changes up and down a minor league organization, much more complex than for example, changing the pitching coach at the ML level. You need to get everyone on the same page, make sure there are sufficient resources to implement things like sophisticated video analysis, etc.

And they didn't have much to work with, the paucity of talent this year at Clearwater and Reading reflects signings and draft picks 3-4 years before, only the college players rapidly advance (and are rapidly identified as top 100 picks).

Kingery, drafted 2015, ranked 2018
Velasquez, signed in 2010, ranked in 2015
Quinn, drafted in 2011, ranked 2013
varies from player to player, some get ranked quickly, some only after they emerge in the high minors

[nycphils]

I could see a huge bounce-back year for the system if things go right.

No question - if even one of JoJo and Medina regain their luster, or Garcia gets back on track with a very good season, if Moniak can control the strike zone, of Rojas can really hit, if Erik Miller really has discovered his command/control after college, etc., the system could look much better - for example, even a good season that takes Stott to AA, a bounce back repeating LWD for Garcia and Miller looking good over a full season I think we’d have 3 Top 100 prospects next year.

However, the converse is also possible - Bohm and Howard are very likely to graduate and unless something goes right this year that didn’t last year, we could have zero Top 100 prospects and a very grim situation.

[Austinfan]

That's why the next two years are the litmus test for Klentak's changes, if players start improving in substantial numbers, then they've upgraded development, if not, the decade is doomed and a rebuild is in the offing in a few seasons.

To me, the key prospects are those with real upside:

LHV: Bohm and Howard of course, Stephen and Moniak. Both are only 22 in AAA.
Wilcard: Pujols.
Reading: Medina, Sanchez
Clearwater: Stott, Muzziotti, Ortiz, Morales, Miller
Lakewood: Aparicio, Simmons, Garcia, Rojas, De La Cruz, Gowdy, Pipkin, Ben Brown, Schultz

The rest of the system is mostly 5th starter, middle relief, backup catchers, IF and OF types.
A few might surprise, but are unlikely ever to crack a top 100 list (the late bloomers will probably be in Philly before they make a list)

Don't need to hit the majority, a couple each of the next few years (and that includes the next wave such as Castillo) would go a long way.

[allentown]

That's why the next two years are the litmus test for Klentak's changes,

I remember you saying the same thing about Jordan.

[zambonir]

Well, he wasn't wrong!

[Austinfan]

Unfortunately!

[Austinfan]

Sunday NYT, Reds have hired the founder of Driveline. Then the reporter noted the firing of three analytic oriented pitching coaches, showing confusion over two very different approaches.

Driveline focuses on high speed video to analyze pitcher mechanics (and hitters), which is a powerful coaching tool.

Analytics focuses on the use of statistics to discover undervalued strategies, swing angle, FBs high in the zone.
The problem with analytics is that most people who use them don't have the statistical and modeling background to use them properly, and that includes many people with an academic background in statistics.

Correlation is not causation, and it's important to develop a "story" that explains correlations, then go back and test that story with additional data, taking into account that in a "game" the underlying parameters may change their "true" value over time as opponents adjust their strategy. Then you use that story in coaching your players.

A "one size fits all" approach is a good sign that the coach didn't have a clue.

Driveline (Phillies have hired some of their employees) is a totally different matter, using high speed video to analyze player mechanics is simply applying technology to what coaches have always done, now it can be done in a systematic fashion, i.e., release points, landing spots (for pitchers' feet), swing angle, speed, etc.

[andyb]

That's why the next two years are the litmus test for Klentak's changes,

I remember you saying the same thing about Jordan.

It is kind of laughable that one could say that years 5 and 6 under Klentak are the litmus test. It is like he gets a pass on years 1-4. The picks at the top of the draft and the strategy of the draft and the international investments were all things that Klentak had more than a passing involvement in years 1-4. It would be like conducting a Presidential election and saying an incumbent has not had enough time in 4 years to implement change so they get a pass on everything that happened under their watch.

Hopefully Kentak's latest changes are good. It just took him 4 years to do it, and it was after several other waves of changes. He is responsible for the current state of the system. Hopefully it improves with the changes. I just don't have much confidence it will improve.

[bigegypt0417]

I could see a huge bounce-back year for the system if things go right.

This is really where I am.

If a few players take a step forward, I think the system will look better than it does right now.

If we see positive steps forward out of this group we may see an uptick:

Garcia
Morales
Romero
Moniak
Simmons
Santos

[BostonRoss]

It does not matter if the 2016 and 2017 rankings were correct except to say our system was considered above average at the time.

By that logic, say a week ago we were predicted to get six inches of snow, but it turned out sunny and pleasant. Tomorrow we are supposed to get two inches of snow. So tomorrow's weather is better than a week ago?

[Austinfan]

The Phillies were a consistent bottom ten, maybe bottom five in terms of homegrown talent.
Just because a one year flurry of trades added six of ten top prospects (all of whom graduated and/or flopped in a 2-3 year period) doesn't change that reality.

To turn around a bottom feeder organization takes 5-6 years because you have to build depth at every level, and the 16-18 year old LA/HS players take that long to get to AA and AAA ball. The donut at A+/AA this season reflects that, the stronger AAA team is primarily college players outside of Moniak and Stephen.

If the donut isn't filled the next two years and overall talent increased, then it's time to PANIC.

[andyb]

By that logic, say a week ago we were predicted to get six inches of snow, but it turned out sunny and pleasant. Tomorrow we are supposed to get two inches of snow. So tomorrow's weather is better than a week ago

Except in my analogy we have some control of the weather. 80% of the prospects in our system have probably been added under Klentak. 90% of the real prospects as AAAA players don't really count. If I had 80% control of the weather, I'd have an idea of whether it was going to snow and if that mattered.

[allentown]

No, you don't need to build depth at every level, nor does it take 5-6 years to build a quality farm. If you have a future star caliber player at every level, you have a premium farm. Look at how fast even H.S. draftees who become stars move through systems. It doesn't take 6 years. Except for catchers, taking 6 years is pretty much a determinant that you are going to be an All Star. So, if I accept your take that the farm was just about as bad when Klentak joined the organization as it is now, that means Klentak hasn't improved the situation. The mass of guys who can become less-than-average MLB performers really don't add a lot to an organization's ranking.

[allentown]

If we see positive steps forward out of this group we may see an uptick:

Garcia
Morales
Romero
Moniak
Simmons
Santos

Romero is certainly one I will be focusing on. My number one guy is Medina, then the young catchers, Rojas, and Ortiz. Also Morales and Garcia. I haven't been nearly as high on Stott as many who have ranked our farm have been, so I will watch him very closely. If I had to name 6 with the potential to give our farm rating an uptick, in order they would be: Medina, Stott, Romero, Marchan, Garcia, Rojas, Ortiz. I have the least faith in Ortiz, but if he improves pitch recognition/contact he could make a huge impact. I guess that's 7 guys and Ortiz is a bonus nomination.

[zambonir]

It doesn't take six years, but these next two years will definitively determine whether 2017-2019 was any good. We already know 2016 was a disappointment if not a bust (ditto Ortiz but that's not on Klentak either), and we already know everything before that was too (most notably the trade acquisitions who made the farm look good in 2016).

We also already know that Klentak knows his system and depth isn't great, or he would have been more active trade-wise at different points. The pressure to re-sign Realmuto still has to be great.

[andyb]

It is probably just as important to note that the 2016-2019 international classes have yet to yield a top 100 prospect. I think Morales is the closest. Or Luis Garcia (who might have hit the tail end of a couple lists a year ago). The cumulative set of prospects from those classes is just underwhelming so far compared to what other teams have signed and includes one year where we had the number one overall pool (though others obviously surpassed that limit).

One of Klentak's biggest mistakes IMO was not spending a huge amount internationally (like $75-$100 million) when it was possible and we had a low major league payroll. The biggest opportunity was in his first full season, but again, a new GM is judged on results and being timid in their first year of international spending is part of his record.

[zambonir]

It's a more than fair and correct criticism, I'm just more inclined to give him a pass in 2016. I blame the Phillies and MacPhail for not being more decisive in 2015. It's ridiculous that Gillick and the old regime was still in charge until October, especially after MacPhail was hired in June. They made a deliberate decision to spin those wheels for five months and then they made another one to treat 2016 as a "get to know the organization" year for everyone.

Generously, I'd say the front office was in chaos (since the only reason they really made a change was because Monty got cancer). Less generously, Middleton was simply doing as every Phillies owner has done, and his very green, brand new GM was unable to get his bosses to act with more urgency, and spend more money, in what was a once-in-an-era year having the 1-1. Of course we'll never know who Sal could or have wanted to sign, or if he was actually kept from doing so. But by the time Klentak got there most of that class (or lack thereof) would have been in place and there wouldn't really have been a huge window for Klentak to say, "go find me more."