Phillies Prospect Lists

[andyb]

I have heard the changes will be more environmental as in consistent humidors. Though to me it would make sense to standardize the manufacturing, perhaps at a deadened level close to what the older ball did.

[allentown]

It is a strange list, but everyone from #15 on is the category of 'expect nothing beyond middle reliever or UT role) or don't expect to ever see them on a 40-man roster. So, it's really just the top 14 who matter in his view. Pujols is a very strange choice for inclusion among those 14.

[Austinfan]

Prospect puts up following numbers:
19 at Lakewood, wRC+ 80
20 at Clearwater, wRC+ 95
21 at Reading, wRC+ 115

Some people might see progress.

[andyb]

That means little. There is something odd about the Reading stats that makes me think the park adjustment was not done. Josh Stephen is 140. Cornelius Randolph 114. Bohm (146) and Haseley (144) were better of course. There is just not much about Moniak's season that screams prospect. 4th OF maybe, but not really prospect. 115 is just not that special on that team.

[phillychuck]

Reading didn't play as much as a hitters' park last year as it usually does, so the adjustment was less.

Moniak IS showing progress--he went from looking like a total bust in Lakewood to a possible 4th OF in Reading IF the progress continues. It's possible his ceiling is higher; it will depend on whether those numbers keep trending UP with level. 135 at Lehigh Valley would change the projection significantly.

[Austinfan]

wRC+ of 135 at Lehigh at age 22 would make Moniak an elite prospect.
wRC+ of 120 would make him a solid starter candidate.

One thing that makes this tricky to project are the baseballs, AAA ball was weird b/c young pitchers struggled with the ML baseball, so hitters were getting a lot of wounded ducks (breaking balls that didn't break with the tougher grip) to hit.

[phillychuck]

wRC+ is adjusted to league average so the baseball changes are irrelevant.

[andyb]

Nick Williams put up numbers in the 130-150 range. 120 would be more of a 4th )F/below average regular. Your 135 would be more of a solid starter. Moniak would need something 140-150 to be seen as elite or a top 100 prospect. And he has never gotten close to that no matter what progress you see.

Moniak is a prospect. Just not a terribly good one at this point. Maybe in the 10-15 range in our system. Top 300-400 in baseball. He needs to be significantly better to be seen as a solid starter.

[allentown]

Moniak is not going to develop into an elite prospect. He lacks a carrying tool. He does nothing especially well. He can play CF, but he is not a plus defensive CF. He is not a plus runner. He is far from having plus power. The hit tool was supposed to be his carrying tool, when we drafted him 1.1. It has not shown up. At Reading last season his OBP was only .301. That's not a fluke, it's also his career OBP. It's not nearly good enough for the sort of player he is.

[bigegypt0417]

It weird that moniak isn't that much of a prospect but when you look at his stats vs. others in the eastern league, he's in the top 10 in hits, doubles, triples, RBI's and total bases.

top 20 in HR's.

He may not be a prospect but is an awfully productive 21 year old.

[allentown]

Perhaps an off year for hitters in the EL. Moniak has an impressive number of 2Bs and 3Bs, but if 11 HRs puts you in top 20?

[andyb]

More likely few top prospects stay in the league all season (like Bohm). Counting stat rankings really don't mean too much.

[Squire]

His numbers are not meaningless but counting numbers in the mid-minors are less meaningful because the top prospects get promoted out of the league (or into it mid-year)

[andyb]

It is really interesting looking at him against Josh Stephen who almost nobody considers any sort of top prospect (like in our top 10). They are close to the same age (Stephen is a half year older). Stephen had by far the better OPS (826 vs 741). More power. Better walk rate. Better road splits. Moniak has a bit more speed and more value defensively, but one could argue that Stephen is as good or better offensively.

Moniak is the better prospect because of his tools. He should also have 20 HR potential (not much in today's game but at least something). Maybe Stephen is underrated a bit but I doubt he is considered more than a 5th OF/bench type by many. He is not really a 4th OF because that person can generally play a little CF. This is why I think the wRC+ stats are just off this year for Reading. The ballpark advantage is still there. I think it got hidden by the overall mediocrity of the team though. These adjustments are all relatively small sample size and they probably are somewhat dependent on the roster and luck.

[bigegypt0417]

I agree with the fact that he's not near the top of the prospect but it's hard to ignore that as a 21 year old, he more than held his own at AA.

[Austinfan]

Hey, I have an idea, let's see what both Moniak and Stephen do in AAA at age 22.
That's pretty young for that level, so any kind of solid performance is a good sign.

[zambonir]

Sounds good! But this is a prospect lists thread, so it's entirely about ranking them now based on the information we have now. And totally meaningless/for fun. We could just as easily say, "why try to guess if the Phillies can win 88 games this year, let's just see how they do!"

[Taudawg]

What fun is it to wait and see when we can speculate about it now?

[phillychuck]

OPS+/wRC+ numbers are adjusted by the performance of all teams in the park compared with their performance in all other parks. Having a mediocre or excellent team doesn't change them.

[andyb]

OPS+/wRC+ numbers are adjusted by the performance of all teams in the park compared with their performance in all other parks. Having a mediocre or excellent team doesn't change them.

Since park effects are calculated with 50% of the sample size (the home team) being one set of players, they single year effects are highly variable based upon the quality of the team.

The Eastern League had an average OPS of .677 last year. Reading had the highest OPS of .704 and they were not really that good an offensive team. Moniak at 741 really seems someone who should have maybe a 105 wRC+ than 115 and that difference is captured in these park effects. It is still there in Reading. They just did not have the home club to take much advantage of it last year.

I look at Moniak having the same OPS as Cornelius Randolph and come away unimpressed with his offensive stats. He is a year younger so a better offensive prospect, but that is in comparison to someone who is a non-prospect these days. Moniak also is worse on the OBP side of the equation, so that is also not encouraging. He is probably somewhere in the 10-15 range in our system. He probably has the tools to be better than that, but not sure he has the tools to be better than a below average regular.