Phillies Prospect Lists

[zambonir]

He placed us 7th, not that that is much consolation.

[allentown]

No, actually he did not. He picked us 7th among the teams who drafted in the top 10. If you read the second last sentence of his comments in response to Snapper Beans' question, he also placed 3 teams (Dodgers, Astros, Cardinals) who didn't pick in the top 10 slots ahead of us.

[nycphils]

Brutal

[zambonir]

Ah, gotcha. I was only reading my own quote! (Which I tried to shorten up so as not to be overcopying.)

That doesn't really bother me as much though. It stands to reason that a couple of teams in each tier of the draft is going to beat you. It stands to reason that LA, Houston and St. Louis will out-draft us every time. Still not good, but to be expected! And a mid-late team with one lucky pick (whether it's a Trout or Ryan Howard) can pass a lot of teams.

At 1-1 though, obviously, you want to at least be one of the three or four best drafts in the Top 10.

Thing is you can spin this reality either way, I think. With such poor drafting and trading in 2015-2016, was it reasonable to actually expect winning teams just two-three years later? Alternately, with such poor drafting and trading in 2017, they should have given up on the internal rebuild even sooner, since no cavalry was coming.

And why the heck did they win so many games in 2016? The Braves and Padres - two teams that are killing us prospects-wise - both drafted ahead of us in 2017, as did the Reds.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Why? Because this is not an exact science but we have seen enough to realize our drafting is not a strength.

We need to improve. Improving through free agency alone will not do it.

Not to be too negative because the draft has provided us with good players. When I look overall at our position players, we are actually in decent shape. And I think our RP can come from the draft. We need pitching.

[allentown]

Yes, starting pitching is the obvious weakness. 3B isn't great, but I'm hopeful Bohm will come up sometime in 2020 and do a good job at 3B for at least 3-4 seasons. On the other hand, no way I can squint at the quality of SP in the system and see a good rotation without a couple of FA. Howard should help, but that still leaves 2-3 rotation holes. Who else looks to be significant help over the next 3 seasons? I don't see anyone. RP should be able to come from the draft and, counting SP on the big league team and upper minors who look unlikely to make it as other than #5 MLB starters, we seem to have a lot of bullpen possibilities in the next season or three.

The lack of SP on the farm is the primary reason I wonder what the heck MacPhail does. He says he wants the Phillies to grow their own pitching and acquire hitters in FA and outside the system, but during his tenure with the Phillies we have expended piddling draft and international resources on pitching. The emphasis has been overwhelmingly on the position player side. The last #1 pick we used on pitching was Nola. That was also our last clearly outstanding first rounder, so why the unwillingness to use another #1 on a pitcher. We have spent second rounders and so far so great with Spencer Howard. Our biggest international bonuses have also gone to hitters, although we did sign Morales. We have tried AF's approach of signing a lot of projectable young pitchers for lesser bonuses, but it demonstrably hasn't worked.

[flyers19rw]

Where does Kevin Gowdy fit in the prospect list? He would have been a first round pick in the '16 draft but slipped to the second because everyone knew the money that the Phillies were going to give to him. Coming out of H.S. he was as good of a pitcher as there as in SoCal. Of course there then came the TJ surgery. This coming season he should be ready to go full bore. With the talent that he was supposed to have pre TJ surgery, he should be a fast riser in the system.

[andyb]

The word from last year was that the stuff did not rebound. Poor command (which is expected), but more importantly not throwing harder than upper 80s most of the time. I doubt he is top 30 any more unfortunately.

[flyers19rw]

I saw those reports as well; not exactly something to get excited about. Some guys take two years to recover from the surgery (see Smyly this year). It may well be that the Phillies were taking things slow with him and having him work on certain aspects of his pitching. Have there been any statements from the organization one way or the other about his '19 season?

[nycphils]

We can hope; maybe he rebounds. Haven’t heard anything either way. However, my anecdotal recollection says most of the time, the velocity comes back the first year or it never does. We shall see.

[zambonir]

I don't think MacPhail has ever really expressed a belief in or intent to "grow the pitching," it's just something he said years ago, and he's also expressed an unwillingness to spent on older FA pitchers. While it's true they haven't expended enough resources at the amateur level, you can't say they haven't stuck to their guns on the pro roster! They just forgot that what you grow has to actually be good.

Seems like they just had more of a BPA philosophy in the drafts, and an understandable aversion to HS arms (you could have talked some of us into taking Groome in 2016 right?). Development seems like a bit of a culprit too; of all the guys who started for AAA in the past two years I don't think anyone expected zero hits (in terms of a legit major league starter). And before that, three of our alleged best hopes were Thompson, Eshelman and Appel.

[Austinfan]

I think one reason for the organizational shakeup the last two years is disappointment in player development.

We simply had too many good arms in the Lehigh rotation for one or two not to develop with good coach, you don't need to throw 95+, any pitcher who can average 92 can be a solid back of the rotation guy with command and two secondary pitches - and while some of that is innate, a lot of that, improving mechanics, refining your secondary pitches, is also good coaching. How often do we read about some AAAA guy in his mid-20s learning a new pitch or grip and suddenly making a big jump?

Same with hitting, while some of plate discipline is eyesight, reaction time, and eye to hand coordination, a lot of it is simply understanding how to work a count, read a pitcher, and know your own tendencies (learning not to chase high FBs and low sliders out of the zone).

[allentown]

The current issue of BA -- the one with the Phillies Top 10 -- has a very nice write-up on Lindow, It is so positive, one wonders how he missed the top 10 -- surely he will be 11 or 12. The write-ups on the Top 10 make our system seem weak, so it is especially surprising for Lindow to not rate #10. They are very high on Howard -- plus tool grades across the board, including a 70 FB, but from there it is questions: Bohm probably not a 3B for even 200 games, Stott will have to work very hard at conditioning to stay at SS, Morales has great stuff but likely future is 2-pitch reliever, Medina could be a solid #3/4 starter but change hasn't developed and LH murder him, Marchan has plus defense but has to be super plus because his offense is that bad, Garcia has plus contact skills but is too weak for that to matter, Delossantos has below average FB command and his change is fringe-average, Moniak has no plus tools and "it's hard to see him posting even league-average on-base percentages and some scouts say he has no hope of playing CF -- I'm not that pessimistic, but in the 6-7 games I saw him play there I was not impressed by the jumps he got on balls and he lacks the above average speed to make up for that, Nick Matos needs to gain strength and is more a super-make-up guy with average bat speed, average range guy with a plus arm as his only plus skill.

[zambonir]

Bohm probably not a 3B for even 200 games

I don't completely understand the part where Bohm starts at 3B and doesn't stick, though we certainly keep hearing it. They just think he'll turn out to be so bad at it that the Phillies will have no choice but to move him? They think he'll be adequate but still so average that he'll age out more quickly than most? Wouldn't you hope he actually improves at 3B the more he plays it in the pros? Including, perhaps, a full season in AAA instead of calling him up and watching him put up a .750 OPS with bad defense in July.

I mean, how bad is he supposed to be, we've had a terrible defensive 3B for the last five years? And are we really sure he even has a 1B/LF-caliber bat?

Obviously the Phillies believed in him as a 3B when they took him and still believe in him now (though I guess we can't say that for sure until the hot stove's over). If they do sign Moose (see, easy to avoid the spelling issue that way), even for just two years, does Bohm move to LF in AAA?

[andyb]

If you look at the video in the article (in the winter thread) it shows Bohm's HR which was a really good opposite field stroke. And the announcers are talking about some defensive misplay that he had done the previous inning. SSS of course, but those 10 seconds capture all the conventional wisdom about him. I am actually OK with a slightly below average fielding 3B if he can hit and play for low dollars for a few years.

[LoneStarPhan]

Gosh, I don’t think I have heard so much negative talk about a prospects inability to field his “projected” position in the majors since Chase Utley was coming up.

[zambonir]

Well, that'd be great, but I also remember when Cody Asche was going to be the next Chase Utley (in the best possible scenario) and force Franco's big bat to 1B.

Bohm's long-term future will take care of itself. I'm just not counting on him in July, just like Kingery and Williams' rookie seasons would not have been acceptable on a team with 90-win ambition.

[Florida_Sunshine]

Lets not box ourselves in here. Case in point is Pete Alonso of the NY Mets

Wasn't 2019 his first year in the majors?

Bohm is in a similar position.

[bigegypt0417]

Well, that'd be great, but I also remember when Cody Asche was going to be the next Chase Utley (in the best possible scenario) and force Franco's big bat to 1B.

Bohm's long-term future will take care of itself. I'm just not counting on him in July, just like Kingery and Williams' rookie seasons would not have been acceptable on a team with 90-win ambition.

Simply throwing out a lazy comp of two players that were no where near the same pedigree isn't going to make your point.

Bohm and Asche are nowhere near the same pedigree or anywhere near the same level of expectations.

[zambonir]

I wasn't the one who compared Bohm and Utley. Yeah, Asche and Franco weren't high picks but by the time they got to AA they were highly regarded.

As for Pete Alonso, he had 573 ABs between AA and AAA, with a .975 OPS. Bohm has 270 at AAA only, with an .850 OPS.

If he puts up even a .900 OPS in 300 ABs with the Pigs, by all means...