Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[flyers19rw]

Well, it's only a "tax" if the house that's sponsoring the gambling is a government at some level (lotteries, etc.). If it's private... that's just another part of capitalism; in this case, selling the dream of winnings that may not (and in the long run, will not) materialize.

If winning at gambling was so easy to do Las Vegas would be a deserted cross roads

[phillychuck]

Mainly a response to Julio:
Lotteries are a regressive tax, run by the government and heavily slanted toward lower-middle-class and poor participants. Other gambling, including sports gambling, is also a regressive tax, since the earnings of Fan Duel and Draft Kings (etc) are pretty heavily taxed, so a decent portion of the gambling winnings also pass along to the government. And current advertising scares the heck out of me; implying that you need to wake up every morning thinking about what "play" you're going to make today so you can get more money (and we know that at least statistically, that doesn't work). Not to mention that the advertising is heavily slanted toward minority gamblers. I know everyone has free will, but we make choices in a motivated, restricted landscape, and advertising sculpts that landscape. We are sculpting a gaming-addicted population, or at least a portion of the population that is in danger of that addiction. I'd give you 9:2 we're are headed for trouble.

[Austinfan]

Well, at least the government won't break your legs if you don't pay your gambling debts.
The Maifa was less forgiving than the bankruptcy courts.
Though that might change under Musk.

[Callison]

Really a bad time for Wilson to get injured. Had enough good ABs to make you think he can hit, but just when he gets his shot, he's injured. Opens a shot for others.

IMHO, the Phils are late in giving Sosa a shot in the OF. IMHO, he should also be given a shot at SS because he might be the best IF on the team. If he doesn't get beat out by the phenom. Turner's speed in LF would be a great asset. Has anyone asked Turner to play LF? The Phils are late asking that, though if Turner has just gotta play ss, that's OK. But the Phils could be stronger with him in LF. I guess the decision has been made to just hand LF to Kepler, expensive and questionable, but the Phils sometimes see talent where others can't.

Biggest ST question is $36M Walker. He's surely been motivated to get stronger over 4 months. Anxious to see if Walker can come back, but the Phils are real anxious.

[andyb]

Silver lining is that a 6 week recovery plus 30 day rehab after that (he's had no Spring Training at all) means they can get a 40-man roster spot if they need one for the last spot on the bench or the bullpen. This should be an easy 60-day IL stint and the clock starts now and not at the beginning of the season so Wilson could be ready to go in late April or early May.

The last spot on this bench will actually not play a whole lot if they want to give Marsh and Kepler an opportunity to play full time. With Rojas around you only have to play one of them against LHP anyway. The team also has a 5th OF in Schwarber in an emergency too. A day to day injury to one of the starting OF would actually be a good excuse to rotate the DH spot for a week. Wilson rarely got more than 1 start a week anyway as the last man on the roster last season.

[Austinfan]

We're talking the last spot on the bench, look for Kemp to get OF time (has the speed and arm to be credible), Stevenson and Crawford in Lehigh.
We'll see if Kennedy/Clemons get claimed.
They'll probably add a AAA plus OF before breaking camp, shouldn't cost much, might just be a waiver claim after ST cuts.

Probably the easiest slot to fill is a RH platoon corner OF, b/c they only get 200 or so PA teams don't put a great deal of value, even if they're plus platoon hitters.

The player to watch is Walker, if he really has his velocity back and his splitter is working, 2-3 good ST starts could make him prime trade bait (2x18 is affordable for some teams) or make Ranger available. With Painter in their back pocket, aren't going to break camp paying for 6 SPs if they can avoid doing so.

[allentown]

I hope we are looking VERY hard at Waiver wires and low end trades that could be made.

No. The loss of Wilson for 6 weeks is not close to being an injury which necessitates trading for a replacement. First, we don't even know at this point that he's good enough to win a job. Second, if we trade for your low-end starter as the bench guy then Wilson is out of a job going forward. New or old roster construction approach, this simply isn't a significant enough position to trade someone to refill, especially since we have other guys who are likely comparable to Wilson. Plus, 6 weeks, including ST, is such a short period of time. The guys competing for the roster spot against Wilson are perfectly capable of filling in.

[allentown]

We'll see if Kennedy/Clemons get claimed

They certainly don't get claimed if in the process of filling in for Wilson on the 26-man. If nothing else, it gives the Phillies more time to make a decision. They, along with Wilson, are almost in I-don't-care fungible territory where if we lose one to waivers we sign equivalent from the waiver wire. None of these guy's performance shouts 'starter'. Replacing a bench reserve at this time of year is not a big or difficult issue. And no, it won't be Crawford. The Phillies are in the process of changing his swing to at least move from negative to neutral launch angle.

[Austinfan]

Crawford and Painter are post-All Star game options. They'll carefully watch their progression, along with Abel, Johnson, Chace and some young RPs, and of course the usual group of veteran pitchers with "show me" deals. But they won't depend on any of these players stepping up.

My point is more about loading up Lehigh with potential replacement level or better players, providing insurance against injury and buying time for prospects to move up the ladder at their own pace.

Last season, Marchan (0.6 WAR), Wilson (0.4), Dahl, Pache, Clemons, Stevenson (0.1).
Banks (0.2), Estevez (0.2), Nelson, Ruiz, Allard (0.1),
Phillips, Pinto, Johnson (-0.1), Marte (-0.2), Brogdon (-0.4), Mercado (-0.7)
This suggests that pitching depth may be more valuable than long bench depth.

Meanwhile Hayes -0.1, Merrifield -0.3.

[zambonir]

Wilson, Kennedy, Clemens and Stevenson are all fungible. Wilson has shown more and even then was maybe going to get sent to LHV just because he could be. The main issue is more that they want an RHB OF but they still have Rojas (both to get extra starts or to enter defensively for whoever gets Wilson's spot.)

[andyb]

Wilson, Kennedy, Clemens and Stevenson are all fungible.

And because of this I am fine searching the waiver wire. Stevenson is almost certainly the one who gets optioned no matter what because he is a lesser bat and there is no CF time if Marsh is healthy along with Rojas.

The other 3 are fungible but must be replaced with something better. I guess they also represent 3 40-man spots too potentially since Wilson could go on the 60 and Kennedy and Clemens gets DFAd if they don't make the team anyway. Both Mercado and Arroyo are right-handed too and Arroyo offers the defensive flexibility that Wilson had. They just need to think more of Arroyo than Kennedy or Clemens and right now he is behind them.

Kemp won't be considered. He needs to succeed in AAA and why start his option clock if he is not clearly better (and he is probably worse) than guys like Kennedy and Clemens. Kroon was pretty mediocre last year too so the AF all stars are not likely candidates to make the team.

[Philsmania]

Just wondering but when are we likely to see down in Clearwater pitchers who are actually more likely than not to pitch for us in 2025? It's been all AAAA or lesser arms in two games so far.

That's why as happy as I am to be able to watch the Phillies on TV again, these early ST games can be brutal with a lot of "Who the heck is this guy?!" My rule of thumb is to not pay close attention to ST games until we get to the last ten full squad games when you start to see the team which will be starting the season.

[andyb]

The Phillies did say the first couple of games would not have any of the top pitchers. Also I have noticed a tendency for many of the starters to do bullpen work for a couple of their outings in the Spring. Wheeler did that a couple of times last year.

If teams go too far with this there might be some complaints, but the hitters need the live action more so guessing complaints will go nowhere.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Sanchez, Luzardo, and Wheeler to start 3 of the next 4 ST games.

[bkox]

thought this was interesting (even if it has nothing to do with spring training.)

Never would have guessed the Phillies had the 8th most post season wins since 1998.

[phillychuck]

Fun to see the Ricones, Jr. HR! High and long gone. Arroyo's was a blast, too.

[Philsmania]

thought this was interesting (even if it has nothing to do with spring training.)

Never would have guessed the Phillies had the 8th most post season wins since 1998.

After a mostly-cruel 20th Century, the 21st Century has been pretty good to the Phillies.

[Philsmania]

The Phillies did say the first couple of games would not have any of the top pitchers.

They haven't even thrown their middle tier or last men in the bullpen guys out there yet. The Phillies we've seen in the first two ST games so far have basically been a mashup of the Phillies' position players and the IronPigs' pitchers.

[allentown]

The Eagles just won a Super Bowl playing their starters very sparingly in the pre-season as well as the last game of the regular season. The manager is getting to see the fringe pitchers whom he needs to evaluate in the early ST games. The other pitchers are vets who know and for whom the team knows how much ST pitches they need to be ready for the season. There is zero point in unnecessarily burning additional IP in ST for guys we will rely on for 162 regular season games and hopefully deep into the playoffs. As in the NFL several years back and even today, the pre-season is longer than it needs to be.

[Austinfan]

The preseason isn't too long in either league, for marginal players it may be the only chance to see them against major league caliber opposition before you waive them or send them to AAA or AA ball.