Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[allentown]

It's just not a meaningful sample, unless you are telling me he always did in the minors too. In 2023 he didn't (but he hit both of them well, something he also no longer does).

Yes, it is a relatively SSS, but I find it far better logic and data-based decision making to conclude that Rojas doesn't have an advantage against LHP based upon the actual 527 PA of his MLB career than to decide that he should be a platoon guy who plays against LHP, simply because he bats RH.

[andyb]

It makes sense that a speed guy like Rojas should have smaller splits than a power hitter. Of course the path for Rojas to become a regular probably involves adding some power, so maybe he is likely to have increased platoon splits in the future.

With the Phillies though his playing time might be more dictated by Marsh's weaknesses. If Marsh is going to have a sub 600 OPS against LHP again it is just really tough to start him that often in those situations.

[VoteForKalas]

A promising article on actions taken by Kevin Long and his assistants to work with hitters during the off-season and stay on top of them during the season to stop:

-getting themselves out
-expanding the strike zone
-trying to pull everything

He would like the hitters to focus on strike zone discipline, using the whole field and making the pitcher work to get outs.

Hopefully, it will pay off.

Q&A with Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long: ‘We need to have better at-bats’

[zambonir]

I just don't think most teams/analytics department see it that way. Though, to be fair, they also see things that we have no idea about, in terms of swing paths and types of pitches thrown by the opposing pitchers.

But either way, last year Rojas had a .633 OPS in 257 PAs against RHP and .526 OPS in 106 PAs against LHP. In 2023 it was .760 in 90 PAs against RHP and .788 in 65 PAs against LHP. That just doesn't seem like any useful amount of data let alone definitive data. As with all part-time players. When a guy gets 5-600 ABs for three years and has reverse splits for three years, that's different.

But also, more tellingly: last season he had a .560 OPS in 234 PAs in games where there was a RH starting pitcher, and a .677 OPS in 130 PAs in games where there was a LH starting pitcher. So to me that says he starts against LHP and perhaps he just got a little lucky (and unlucky) against a few relievers.

The one other thing to consider is he hit RHP better because he saw them more. That's always been a big part of a LHPs advantage regardless of which side the hitter comes from. But it doesn't seem like the Phillies are any more eager to see Rojas hit more than they are to see Marsh hit more against LHP.

[Austinfan]

Rojas will make the decision for them. He's coming off a good winter showing, he was promoted too fast so there's reason to be patient.

In ST, what will determine his usage are three things, show a little more pop, show a better batting eye and more patience, and show you've learned how to bunt.

It's not like Rojas has to tear up the league, .350 OBP and .750 OPS and he plays every day.

[phillychuck]

a 350 OBP would be third on the team. We can only wish!

[andyb]

350 OBP and .750 OPS and he plays every day.

And he is so far away from actually doing that.

Rojas is going to enter this season with a starting job only against LHP. Marsh and Kepler will 100% start against RHP until they lose their jobs. Rojas will probably not get a chance to play much against RHP unless there is an injury and there will be little he can do about that. He could dictate his own path by putting up an 850 OPS in the minors, but that seems less likely to happen also.

[zambonir]

If Rojas could put up a .350 OBP and .750 OPS I'm probably trading Crawford for a slugger!

[Austinfan]

If Crawford can tweak his swing, he might be that slugger in a couple years, has room for another 10 lbs on that frame and makes consistent contact, just has to stop pounding the ball into the ground.

[allentown]

And he is so far away from actually doing that.

Rojas had a bad 2024 with the bat, but still +0.6 WAR. I don't think Austinfan chose those benchmark offensive goals randomly -- they are pretty much what he achieved in 2023 in SSS.

[zambonir]

But that looks like beginner's luck and the league eventually adjusting to him now. What's weird is his best month in '23 was September, when he had an .844 OPS. But from the playoffs through 2024 he just hasn't been able to find it at the plate..

No doubt, he's a 2 WAR player even with a bad bat. He might have been last year even, if he hadn't struggled defensively the first couple of months. Kevin Kiermaier was 1 WAR last year with a .550 OPS (and is now retired). Harrison Bader was 0.9 with a .657 OPS and signed a $6.25 million deal. But the Phillies clearly view him as a bench player/4th OF for now. They may regret it, considering they've chosen the least good defensive option at all three OF spots by moving Kepler to LF and Marsh out of LF, on top of Rojas losing the CF job. But everything seems to be about the bats now.

[Austinfan]

Rojas has 1631 minor league PA, 527 ML. He missed a year due to COVID. He won't turn 25 until August.
So there's room for improvement.
In 2023, 130 RC+ in AA, 110 RC+ in the show. Unsustainable .410 BABIP when he came up in 2023, but given his speed, .297 in 2024 was probably below his norm.
He should have gone to AAA in 2023, and started there in 2024 and come up after he was comfortable there.

It's not inconceivable he makes a jump this spring after a successful winter ball campaign.
I don't think they're counting on it, but I think they'll give him a shot at convincing them he should start.

FB has him at 2.7 WAR in 527 PA over the last two years.

[andyb]

The minor league stats and major league recency stats suggest the 601 OPS from last year is closer to his true ability than the SSS stats from last year. Cal Stevenson put up a 900 OPS in AAA last year and is a marginal big league bat at best.

Rojas could still get better and he did get good winter experience this year, but he is most likely not going to get a chance this Spring even if he hits very well. Marsh and Kepler and Castellanos are all ahead of him against RHP. He'll get his chances, but winning a full time job in the Spring without injuries is just near impossible. Everyone just needs to stop quoting the 2023 SSS stats because they are just not that meaningful even on defense which regressed some in 2024. He was a 0.7 WAR player last year in 363 PA. That is the base he needs to improve upon. He just was not that good last year.

[zambonir]

Ironically I see his 2024 as being similar to Castellanos's 2024. They were both more like the players they need to be in the second half after especially putrid April/May starts (for Rojas, in the field too when that was supposed to be his strength). But Rojas's .674 OPS + great defense still was not enough for the Phillies to believe, both when they got Hays and now. Nick's .839 and poor defense was. That is a choice they are making though you can argue neither player stopped the team from having a great offense (and winning at an insane pace when they weren't producing, less so when they were). I believe they were both around -1.0 WAR out of the gate, and had to play much better to get back to where they wound up on the year.

With Kepler only signed for one year and Schwarber's deal up there is still a path for Rojas. Next year's OF is not going to be Rojas, Crawford, Marsh or Rojas, Crawford, Castellanos. At lot can happen between now and then.

[andyb]

I am not against Rojas as a player or really positive about Castellanos. It is just realistic to look at the roles on this roster assuming Castellanos is going to play 150+ games a year. I hope they sub for him defensively more and get him a rest day every now and then, but it is really going to take poor performance over several months (into June) for his role to change substantially.

So the bigger questions in the OF are more about how well Kepler hits (and whether he has big enough platoon splits so he only plays against RHP). Whether Marsh can hit lefties a little more. And whether Schwarber plays the field more often. Those are the immediate variables to consider. I think Rojas and Wilson (or whomever wins the last roster spot) will play against LHP, but that might be dictated as much by how Kepler and Marsh hit than whatever Wilson or Rojas do.

[zambonir]

Dinner at the Harpers' house?

Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola missed Monday’s workout with food poisoning, but Thomson said they are both “feeling better.”

[BostonRoss]

I hope they’re not drinking raw milk

[zambonir]

Well yeah that was my suggestion. Harper still seems to be plugging it but he also featured grass-fed Maple Hill in his recent Tik Tok which is just standard pasteurized supermarket stuff.

[zambonir]

Gelb suggests that Marsh (who had an .867 OPS against lefties in limited PAs after August 1) should just play every day to finally see if he can do it, which would further marginalize Rojas and leads to this suggestion:

• Edmundo Sosa’s outfield adventure this spring will include center field, Thomson said. Sosa is working with the infielders most days but is dedicating some practice time to the outfield group. If Sosa can prove he’s capable in the outfield this spring, that could prompt the Phillies to carry a different bench bat over Rojas. Something to monitor.

Seems unlikely they'd actually want Sosa to make CF starts though. If they really wanted Rojas to play every day in AAA they could add Mercado.

[andyb]

I wonder if they are a little shaky on Wilson getting a backup roster spot. He seems a decent bat against LHP and already has the OF experience that Sosa does not to go along with his ability to be a second backup in the infield.

If they actually did leave Rojas in the minors I guess Sosa could be a better CF potentially than Wilson. Just not guaranteed. Rojas in the minors would open it up to an extra bench bat noting that Clemens (who would have a role subbing for Bohm occasionally) is out of options.