Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

Austinfan 2025-02-16 14:46:12 UTC #61

Marsh has played 74 innings in RF the last two years, he could probably handle it fine if needed.
But if would make more sense to platoon Kepler with Castellanos in RF with Marsh in LF against RH pitching.

Marsh is a subpar fielding CF, and Rojas actually hits RH pitching the same or better than LH pitching, so I'm dubious about his value as a CF. They'll be watching Crawford's progress closely.

zambonir 2025-02-16 15:01:27 UTC #62

Rojas's platoon splits are a small sample, and also full of noise from his highs and lows. The Phillies and Thomson almost always ignore that (if they are platooning that is. They also ignore it when they have just decided a guy should play every day, whether they are right or wrong).

In CF as things currently stand it is pretty much guaranteed Rojas will play against LHP and Marsh against RHP. Even if Rojas continues to hit RHP better by his own standard, he's nowhere near Marsh's standard (or Kepler's).

And there's also no indication Castellanos will be platooning in any way. Nor should he, if he's able to avoid a slump and pick up where he left off last year. If he craters that's another story. And he should actually get one game a week off this year.

I doubt Marsh is subpar in CF (I.e. he will still be positive value). Just not as good as Rojas or as good as his own work in LF

Hopefully this plan works and they are not once again looking for a RHB OF or talking about Luis Robert. Crawford could still be traded, could be the 2026 starting CF or could just be the next Rojas. I'd be surprised if he's a factor this year (and if he is that means Kepler has gone the way of Merrifield).

Austinfan 2025-02-16 15:49:07 UTC #63

Castellanos should platoon b/c his L/R split the last three years says he's a 95-100 RC+ hitter against RH pitching, which combined with his poor fielding makes him below replacement level.

Now will they platoon him? Depends on whether they want to win or placate an overpaid player.

zambonir 2025-02-16 16:00:09 UTC #64

Agreed, but they won't do it, especially since they are equally determined to let Kepler play against LHP (just as they intended to let Hays play against RHP) and don't seem especially eager to play Rojas more. So there isn't actually anyone to platoon with him.

Now, if he repeats his start from 2024, or if Crawford really does force a call-up, it will be a different story. Then you can also start the process of imagining 2026 without Nick as a starting OF (whatever that looks like) which would allow them to put Marsh in RF or sign a FA. But I would rather still hope Nick has the offense he showed from June to September last year, even you'd still rather he was a DH. His second-half OPS was .839 and 2/3 to 3/4 of those ABs were still likely against RHP (full-season it was 74%).

They aren't catering to his ego or in a sunk cost fallacy; our HOF President and winningest all-time manager both actually believe he's good. Not saying they are right, but he's still better than his haters think (just like Bohm).

It seems like their philosophy is also that the pitching is so good that the defense can be bad, rather than needing the defense to help the pitching staff. They want offense more.

andyb 2025-02-16 18:09:15 UTC #65

Just get it out of your head that they are going to platoon Castellanos. They are not. He still is an above average offensive bat and until that changes they are not going to demote him.

The Marsh suggestion has nothing to do with familiarity to the position. Just skills where he would be an improvement in RF relative to Castellanos when Kepler is not playing. But that means Kepler has regressed or is hurt or a LHP is throwing (where Marsh wouldn't play anyway). But in terms of skills Marsh does not have the arm injury that Kepler had. The Marsh thing won't happen also because you don't want Casty moving back and forth. That in itself is a negative and if Casty is better suited to RF in the every day lineup that is where he should stay.

allentown 2025-02-16 18:41:34 UTC #66

Actually, Kepler has an OPS of .672 against RHP (last season, when in VSSS he actually hit better against LHP), so he is not a thunderous bat to compensate for not great, or even good, D as a CF. Rojas had a .633 OPS against RHP and was significantly worse against LHP last year, so you don't buy a ton of offense by sacrificing D to sit Rojas.

bkox 2025-02-16 19:04:47 UTC #67

allentown 2025-02-16 19:08:19 UTC #68

Is he really? His OPS+ last season was only His OPS+ last season was only 106 with huge split differentials. If the Phillies analytical staff are as good as reported and have the courage of their convictions to honestly report the stats to the manager and DD, then they all know that Castellanos is a below average hitter against RHP and in night games. He should not be an every day player. You have to look deeper than the back of the baseball cards, and even by that naive measure, Casty hasn't been all that good, averaging 0.8 WAR per season in Philly. Marsh is far better. Rojas and Kepler are both coming off down seasons, but they both possibly may provide more overall value than Castellanos. Make Casty a platoon guy and let him put up better numbers in that role. I think it likeliest that the 3.4 WAR season that earned him his big Philly deal was a fluke, that his total of 2.4 WAR over the past 3 years in Philly is the more accurate gauge of his current value and that at age 33 we should ezpect that he is on a downward trajectory. If Phillies' management chooses to play him every day to keep the vets happy, they are throwing away wins in a season where we likely need just about every possible win to reach the post-season.

allentown 2025-02-16 19:14:25 UTC #69

I'd love to see him make the team.

zambonir 2025-02-16 19:46:02 UTC #70

Yeah but I'm going career with Kepler for now. .778 with great defense too (albeit in RF to this point but I think he'll be fine) and that's with last year dragging him down. If he can't do that anymore he's a bust (and I question trying to play him every day).

The tail was wagging the dog here - Philliies were not sold on Rojas and were moving Marsh to CF (that was already true last year before Hays got sick) so it was just a question of who would play LF. Should it have been Profar or Hernandez or Santader? No thanks. Kepler was cheap and short-term. The fact that they could go back to Marsh in LF and Rojas in CF (and give Wilson some looks against LHP) is actually a good thing if he bombs.

zambonir 2025-02-16 20:14:53 UTC #71

Nick still wound up at 108 OPS+ despite his awful first two months. He was better than that post-to-post in 2023 despite being more streaky (112), when he also had 106 RBIs and 29 HRs. His OPS was no worse than .789 and as high as .858 the last four months of 2024. He is a poor defender but the Phillies don't care. He is still definitely an above-average hitter (by 8 points last year to be specific), and while he's no Alec Bohm, he has also repeatedly stepped up with RISP or with big home runs in big spots.

I doubt Koyo breaks camp in MLB but we'll certainly see him.

allentown 2025-02-16 20:51:25 UTC #72

The data I saw has Casty at 106 OPS+ last season. Fine by me if Aoyagi starts at Allentown to get his feet on ground and allow the Phillies to evaluate relievers on 40-man, before they need to promote or release off-season FAs with ST invites who aren't on 40-man.

Austinfan 2025-02-16 21:24:48 UTC #73

The problem is two-fold with Castellanos, he has strong L/R splits, especially against RH pitchers with a good slider (b/c he can't keep from chasing that pitch away), and he's a lousy fielder. So his performance against RH pitchers makes him a replacement player at best in that role, and probably below replacement as he loses even more range as he ages. As a platoon player against LH pitching he's probably worth 1 WAR.

Playing him every day because "he's a reliable veteran" is a firing offense in my book.

zambonir 2025-02-17 00:23:13 UTC #74

Yup, my bad. But 126 in the second half. Against plenty of RHP. He was just terrible for about six weeks and not great for another couple after that. But he was a crucial part of the offense after that.

Bohm was 117 on the year but had a 75 second-half OPS, that's how great he was for the same six weeks Nick was terrible. They are both key parts of the offense when they are on their game, especially since there's no one else from the right side besides Turner. Going with Kepler instead of a RHB for LF was itself a recommitment to Bohm and Casty (once they couldn't trade either of them).

Bohm also has a .693 career OPS against RHP to Casty's .767. Obviously he's gotten better and Casty's gotten worse but the the defensive shortcomings are similar. I don't know that I buy how much dWAR liked Bohm last year or that it's sustainable. Was it a firing offense for Thomson to play Bohm against RHP as much as he did in previous seasons?

Austinfan 2025-02-17 00:38:51 UTC #75

They didn't have a LH option for Bohm (Sosa RH).
Unless you think Kody Clemens, who has the same fielding deficiencies, can fill that role despite his career 64 RC+ split over 309 PA.
Even if Miller comes up at some point, same issue.

zambonir 2025-02-17 01:23:34 UTC #76

It's not an issue for Bohm now, but Sosa used to regularly play for him (and then it all changed because Bohm also had to play 1B).

But it's also not one for Casty (and they don't have a LHB to platoon with him either).

Listen, my dream line-up would be Juan Soto in RF and Marsh/Casty platooning in LF with Rojas in CF. But that's not how they went, nor did they go after the options in between a Soto and a Kepler.

Austinfan 2025-02-17 02:11:14 UTC #77

I'd go Marsh/Wilson in LF, Kepler/Castellanos in RF, Rojas in CF and Crawford hopefully up after the Allstar break after he incorporates the spring training tweaks into his spring and turns some GB into line drives to the alleys.

bkeich 2025-02-17 02:16:55 UTC #78

No chance they can use 6 roster spots for the OF, I assume you are unloading one of the 5 from the first half of the year.

Even 5 pure OF is hard to do, there are only 4 bench spouts on most teams and 1 is a catcher, 1 a utility IF. That 4th bench spot is better as a 3B/ OF guy.

(And this is not counting Schwarber as an OF, but really he is the deep bench OF most likely)

zambonir 2025-02-17 02:22:40 UTC #79

And I want Matt Painter to be Rookie of the Year followed by Aidan Miller next year, both of which are more likely than Crawford playing for the Phillies in July of this year (though obviously Painter is already going to be at a disadvantage).

We know what the team's plan is, and it would be nice if it works. If it's not - if Kepler is the new Whit Merrifield or Castellanos collapses completely - that's when Marsh takes over for one or the other and there could be more playing time for Rojas, or even Crawford. Or one of them will be traded in a deal for new OF.

phillychuck 2025-02-17 03:39:49 UTC #80

They are going to run about 3 different outfield alignments if players are healthy and play approximately to their career stats (LF/CF/RF):

1) Kepler/Marsh/Castellanos (most games vs RHP)
2) Marsh/Rojas/Castelanos (some games vs LHP, some defense-first games in CF)
3) Wilson/Rojas/Castellanos (some games vs LHP who have large splits)

if they rest Casty, which is not a certainty, they may go

4) Marsh/Rojas/Kepler (vs RHP with huge splits or a history of success vs Casty)

Wilson has the IF/OF versatility that bk wants, but when everyone is healthy I don't know if they can carry him.

Marchan
JT
Harper
Stott
Turner
Bohm
Sosa

Wilson

Castellanos
Rojas
Marsh
Kepler

Schwarber

Will they carry 13 position players?

PS--And I honestly think the odds of Crawford coming to the big leagues this summer are better than either Miller or Painter getting rookie of the year. It's easier to get to the majors than it is to win RotY at any time in your career...