Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[zambonir]

It's definitely insane to think of them adding another 10+ year contract but that just seems to be where the market is going if you have to have a top free agent, plus it's about lowering the AAV versus the total number, and if Bowden's (still not super-serious) prediction is right there would be deferrals too.

Anyone big-time that the Phillies considering signing is going to make more than Harper. They kept Turner just under his figure but Wheeler makes more, and while Harper's total deal is still 9th in MLB his AAV isn't even in the Top 30.

If the market allows them to sign another Schwarber or Bregman, great. But Bregman's deal has opt-outs, unless he struggles he's probably only going to be there for one year, or they'll re-sign him to a longer one. That would certainly not be a bad thing for the Phillies to do with someone next year, but if they want Tucker or Guerrero it's gonna be a big one.

[Philsmania]

As reported in the MiL transactions thread, Castellano cleared waivers and returned to the Phillies organization.

Just wondering, can anyone remember somebody going to another franchise via Rule 5, be returned and then, after a little more seasoning, come up to the Majors and be good for their original franchise? I suppose Ender Inciarte is one whom we let get away from us and who later came up with the Diamondbacks and was good before getting traded to the Braves where he was even better. It just seems to me that more often than not, the reason they are not protected on the 40-man is because they are probably marginal prospects to begin with and the ones who are serious prospects but lost in the numbers crunch are fiercely held on to by the team that selected them. But, then you have VIctorino whom the Dodgers declined to take back in 2005.

[Matt_Winkelman]

Hoby Milner had a good year with the Phillies and then has been a perfectly acceptable bullpen piece now in Milwaukee.

• Jose Soriano spent a year rehabbing TJ with Pittsburgh before going back to the Angels where he has been good.
• Will Vest has been a good RP for DET after being returned from SEA
• Dedniel Nunez took time but was a returned Rule 5 pick
• Jordan Romano was Rule 5 pick by CWS before returning to TOR
• Nestor Cortes had things in between but was a returned Rule 5 pick

[zambonir]

I reckon that more returned players work out than kept players, it's just that we remember the kept player success stories. I also bet that the rate of success for returned Rule 5 players is no worse than the rate of success for all minor leaguers at whatever level they'd reached before being taken. Because it's not high for anyone.

So who do we think is more likely to end up panning out for the Phillies from here, Abel or Castellano? They are the same age and began their pro careers the same year.

Inciarte and Vic are both good examples of guys who got the additional seasoning they needed, though Vic had already been taken and returned in the Rule 5 before (probably why the Dodgers cut bait the second time). I always thought Tyler Goedell might have had a better career if he had been returned.

And then there is Herrera who was just unique. He'd already repeated AA so he was more MLB-ready than your average Rule 5 guy. And nobody saw the position change coming. The Rangers didn't need him as 2B and they also went and got DeShields Jr. in that same rule 5 (ahead of the Phillies pick).

[David_Criss]

Tyler Phillips claimed by Marlins

[Austinfan]

Good gamble coming off TJ surgery.
Got his velocity back but not his command.

[andyb]

Waiver claim on a AAAA pitcher is really not much of a gamble. Marlins are desperate for innings and that is what Phillips gives them.

[Matt_Winkelman]

He is now over 3 years removed from TJ (fall/winter 2021). It is also technically a trade as the Marlins jump a couple of teams and pay cash for Phillips.

[zambonir]

Guess we're still waiting to see if anyone's gonna do that for Buddy Kennedy.

I actually can't believe the season starts tomorrow, I have always had the home opener more in my mind.

[Austinfan]

I meant gamble for us. Didn't work out, but didn't cost anything and worth the roster spot to find out if he could bounce back.

That's seems to be a strategy for them, find veteran pitchers on waivers, minor league deals with options, etc., stash them in Lehigh and see if your pitching coaches can salvage them. Guys coming off TJ, etc. or other injury that explains an offseason.

Hit big time with Hoffman, value with Ruiz, etc.
Most will be cannon fodder in AAA, but only have to hit on one or two a year.

[andyb]

It is not as if this is a unique strategy though. Every team looks for pitchers on the rebound. The rule 5 clock on college pitchers lasts 4 full seasons and if they have TJ surgery at some point they have to be cast aside by their first organization if they are only an average talent.

It is hard to assess whether the Phillies are good at this or not. They have had some success in recent years, but I suspect most organizations have developed a pitcher or two every year from the scrap pile.. It is just not unique when everybody does it.

[Austinfan]

Didn't say it was unique for them.

They are more aggressive about it than in the past, where their AAA team seemed to be filled with more minor league veterans with limited upside.

Though with pitchers there is a balance, you need some "soft throwers" who may not have ML potential but who can eat innings so you don't overwork the rest of your AAA staff.

[andyb]

They are more aggressive about it than in the past, where their AAA team seemed to be filled with more minor league veterans with limited upside.

Have you looked at the age of the AAA minor league staff? They may be smarter than in the past (not really proven), but they are not doing anything different than most other minor league teams.. They really are not more aggressive than they have been in the past. Big difference is having 5+ decent starters at the major league level.

[Austinfan]

Most of the "older" guys are hard throwers.
Basically if you're looking for a ML RP, you want 95+ and one good secondary pitch.

Back of the pen guys can get by with 92-94 and two pitches b/c they'll be throwing multiple inning in mostly meaningless innings (ahead, behind by 5 runs, etc.)

One reason I doubt they see Walker as a viable bullpen option is he shows no tendency to add velocity in short stints.

[dcsman]

Today is Opening Day! One of the best days of the year. Go Phils!

[zambonir]

Time for a new thread. (And a game thread!)

[andyb]

Tough lefty starter today. Do we stick with both Kepler and Marsh in the lineup? Rojas not playing much CF yet probably means we will. We will have a whole bunch of left-handed hitters (5) in the lineup in that case: Kepler, Marsh, Stott, Harper, Schwarber.

[zambonir]

Whatever happened to Edmundo Sosa, OF?

But yeah, in addition to not having many other options, they need to back up their supposed commitment to letting both those LHB OFs face lefties.

[phillychuck]

The heck with backing up a commitment that was made b/c their other options were weak. It's OK today because Gore has reverse splits (maybe because the average LHB he faces is better than the average RHB, but, still...). But lets get a righty or two in the games vs LHP in the future...

[zambonir]

But it's not a commitment they made to the players, it's a commitment they made as a front office find out if the players can actually do it. And the only way to do that is to let them face the LHPs. That has been the story with Marsh, in any case. Kepler they have already explicitly stated will play every day and there's no reason to think they don't mean it, considering Hays got the same treatment. But it's not that they're stuck playing the two LHBs because they picked Clemens over Kennedy, I think it's more that they picked Clemens over Kennedy because they want to play the two LHBs.

Rojas will get his days, and Wilson may ultimately give them "or two" but they don't have that now (and Stott is no less subject not playing against lefties, especially since they actually have an alternative there).