Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[julio]

Matt Gelb‬ ‪@mattgelb.bsky.social‬ · 4m

Phillies have claimed Carlos Hernandez off waivers. He’s on the team, in the Opening Day bullpen. Throws hard, but command issues. Tyler Phillips DFA.

[David_Criss]

https://www.mlb.com/player/carlos-hernandez-672578?msockid=2df935fc959e6e7c298026d594336fa0

Phillips was a nice story, but Hernandez could bring more value than Phillips. And I am sure they tried to trade him, before the DFA. But I am not super confident in an arm the Royals waived. Hope our pitching coach sees something in him he can right.

[bkeich]

Hernandez isn’t good, but maybe he leads to a DFA for Walker when Suarez, Strahm, etc is healthy. (Of course others will get hurt)

ERA in the 3’s last year, so maybe Hernandez has improved on his career stats. Of course his ERA is almost 7 in the Spring, so he did enough to prove to KC that last year was an illusion.

[zambonir]

Strahm is not going on the IL, unless he has a setback. Hernandez certainly doesn't seem that much better than a few of the guys they sent down, but spring training just isn't meaningful whether you are a flash in the pain or a failure. He could be this year's Jose Ruiz, and was already more than that last year, or he could be gone the minute Suarez comes back (but might go unclaimed next time).

Walker still probably has that last bullpen spot locked down for a while. Hopefully he only has to make one start, which won't be enough to move on from him either good or bad. If he has to make 4 or 5 he'll either be good enough to trade or bad enough to DFA, but do we really want to find out?

[zambonir]

Gelb reporting that Thomson said the batting order is not going to be consistent.

Phillies notes: The lineup(s), a new reliever, rotation plans and best defensive...

The Phillies will face a lefty, the Washington Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore, on Opening Day. So Trea Turner will probably be the leadoff hitter with Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber behind him. But when the Phillies face righties, it’ll go Schwarber, Turner, Harper, Bohm.

For now.

“We’re still going to tinker with it,” Thomson said, “even into the start of the season.”

[zambonir]

Also notable from above:

Crismatt is going to LV as a starting pitcher.

Phillies think Castellano is coming back to them from the Rule 5, or they might work out a trade (not sure if Gelb is just stating that is possible or if that's really the Philllies' thinking).

[andyb]

I like getting a reliever that throws 98, even if it is a 3-week tryout. We have had some luck with that model of pitcher.

[VoteForKalas]

Oh thank goodness, he's going to tinker with the lineup. Not his fault though that he has to rearrange the deck chairs.

[zambonir]

I can't tell if you're saying the line-up is fine as it is or the problem is the people in the line-up, not the batting order. Maybe both. I'm less concerned about it, especially after hearing more about Kepler's injury (and seeing his spring training performance).

Odds are it settles into the same thing every day because that's Thomson's style and the players' preference (he mentioned the latter in the interview today too). But I'm game to see what it looks like with Turner up top or without strict L/R if he's really going to give it a try. And default line-up also has three LHB in a row after the 1st inning, unless Rojas PHs for Marsh.

[phillychuck]

Thompson has been pretty good about rotating the spare position players into the lineup a few times each week (when people aren't injured) and I hope he keeps doing that. Each time he does that the lineup will shift as a result. When Rojas plays CF he'll hit 9th breaking up the lefties, When Sosa plays he will probably knock Stott out of the order, etc. Marchan will probably sub 1 for 1 for JT, etc. etc. We do suffer from not having an OBP monster (other than Harper) with speed at the top of the order, but no team has a perfect lineup...

[VoteForKalas]

It is some of the players in the lineup. As I've argued before, DD needed to make more fundamental changes to move out underperforming salaries, free up space to bring in younger talent, improve the hitting approach and extend the window of the team.

Casty, Turner and Walker would have headed up my list. Instead, DD dangled Bohm and largely sat on his hands the rest of the off-season.

Hope is not a strategy, as Roseman likes to say, but this team will need almost everything to go perfectly to have a chance to achieve their goal. It is not by accident that we have fallen shorter each season over the last three.

[bkeich]

After last season, where Walker had one of the worst pitching seasons in the last 50 years (I don’t count Rockies Pitchers) he shouldn’t be even considered for even 1 start. He has reinforced that he shouldn’t start this Spribg Training by continuing to pitch to an ERA near 7. If he starts a game I question what Thomson is doing.

Between Walker’s bizarre hold on a starting pitching spot and Castellanos continuing to play every game at a 0.8 WAR/ Season clip the shine on Thomson is coming off for me. I know he improved in the 2nd half, but with his defense he was still “bad”, just stopped being “worst in the majors” level like he was in the first half.

Thomson needs to make smarter decisions. These are two problems that existed last season, and I fear he is just going to ignore the problem again and keep running these guys out there despite their poor to dreadful performance. Castellanos should have already lost the RF job, even playing Rojas is better as his improved defense at least brings some positive, and Walker failed to earn his roster spot this spring, much less a spot in the rotation.

[andyb]

DD needed to make more fundamental changes to move out underperforming salaries,

Nice concept, but the very definition of underperforming salary is a player with zero trade value (aka Nick Castellanos). Sometimes accepting that underperformance is better than trading somebody away for nothing (or paying the salary anyway which means one is not moving out the underperforming salary.

I agree I am not sold on Walker and we used him too much in 2024. But he was fine in 2023 and the manager at least deserves a shot to recapture that since the stuff does appear better this year. Remember we are biding time for Painter at the beginning and hopefully Ranger only misses one start.

[zambonir]

It is not by accident that we have fallen shorter each season over the last three.

I just don't think they have fallen shorter. They've gotten better every year. And Turner was still a top player last year, just not the MVP candidate we wish he was (he was also hurt, which is part of being so reliant on free agents of a certain age too). You can't roster-build for the post-season crapshoot, even more so these days.

Perhaps both of those things may start to change in the coming season. But not only is it difficult to move those players, the Phillies also still don't have the system (which at this point can no longer be entirely blamed on the previous regime, those '20 and '21 classes aren't looking so good, TNSAAPP caveat aside). Hopefully that changes next season as well (Crawford, Miller) but still no corner-type bats.

There are obviously similarities to the last era, but if so I think it's only 2011, not 2012. This front office hasn't traded away the future aggressively or handed out ridiculous undeserved extensions a la Howard. And I think they were wise to avoid the free agent or rental trade market this off-season (but there will still be the latter in July).

Granted, that crossroads into 2012/2013 comparisons is approaching this off-season (last time they stuck with Utley and Ruiz and Rollins, this time it's Schwarber and JT). Then as now, it all rests on the health of the top two pitchers and the 1B.

Walker is still a non-issue to me If it wasn't him it would have been Tyler Phillips. Players get injured. They have bad seasons. Doesn't always mean they are cooked. I think the hostility towards him is based on the misperception is that he wasn't good (or a good value) to begin with. (He wasn't a great one but that's the price of FAs. Ironically, unlike with the position players, the Philles turned out to have good enough internal options to replace Eflin but they didn't know it themselves).

And at the end of the day, the Phillies tried to trade both Bohm and Castellanos (two years in a row in Nick's case) and determined that not only couldn't they get anything of note for them, but it would cost them even more money and talent to replace their run production.

[Austinfan]

Phillies are a year away from moving young players into the lineuip.
LHV should have Crawford, Rincones, Kemp, MIller in AA, Escobar and Tait in A ball.
There's also young pitching on the way. Painter this summer, one breakout RP as usual

This year the best moves are generally no moves, Kepler is a one year patch, Bohm probably depends on Miller and Kemp, Castellanos is easier to deal with one year left if he has a decent season, and easier to platoon if there are no takers. Same with Walker, with one year left, if he shows enough, someone might bite.

It's less about depending on hope than refusing to panic and make desperation moves to increase their odds this season at the expense of the next few seasons.

[allentown]

DD needed to make more fundamental changes to move out underperforming salaries, free up space to bring in younger talent, improve the hitting approach and extend the window of the team.

That is very hard/impossible to do. DD is effectively at max salary budget for now. You can't save $ by unloading our overpaid/underperforming players. Nobody wants them at their salary. Nobody will take on more of their salary than they are worth. Objectively, Walker's value is zero. Casty's value is what a 0,7 WAR player is worth -- if we say $12 million/WAR that is $8.4 million for this season. But then there is next year's guaranteed $20 million to also consider. How do you value Casty in 2026? I'd say zero WAR or doesn't make the team. I think DD would have to send north of $30 million with DD to move him and there wouldn't be much coming back. With Walker, it's keep or cut. If he shows something in early season, you can move him, but will still send much of his money with him. The Phillies look at this huge pile of committed $ and are left with 'hope' and 'kick down the road' as their strategies.

For breich, who writes:
"Thomson needs to make smarter decisions. These are two problems that existed last season, and I fear he is just going to ignore the problem again and keep running these guys out there despite their poor to dreadful performance. Castellanos should have already lost the RF job, even playing Rojas is better "

I'm not convinced this is Thomson's decision. I think it is largely DD. DD has a big problem: He built this club mainly on expensive FAs. These guys have bonded. He needs to keep them happy -- both to get max production for a run this season and to be able to entice future FA at a reasonable cost as a team which is great for FA vets. About the best he can do this year is reduce Casty's playing time and release Walker if he starts the season badly. He also needs to convince Harper that some of the vets need to have their playing time reduced and others need to not be extended. Harper has been treated a bit as a junior GM. I'm not all that hopeful that DD can pull this off. Harper's bid for a contract extension last season was a very bad indicator, in my opinion.

[andyb]

Playing Casty too much has been a problem, but it was exacerbated by the fact that we had no real alternatives last year that were clearly better (Rojas included). Thomson has occasionally deployed the good defensive OF of Marsh-Rojas-Kepler and I think we will see that occasionally so let's see how it does. I think the Phillies will proactively do it to give Casty a rest every 2-3 weeks and we'll see how Rojas does. I guess Kepler's arm issues from last year have healed to the point where the Phillies are comfortable with him in RF (Casty still has the better arm but the Phillies seem to be choosing Kepler over Marsh arm-wise).

[zambonir]

From today's Athletic roster breakdown, on Castellanos:

His .793 OPS after May 1 ranked 16th among all MLB outfielders. He had a team-best seven hits in the Phillies’ four-game loss to the Mets in the National League Division Series. But he’ll always be known as a streaky hitter.

I'm sure that when you factor in defense Nick may not even be one of the 50-best OF in MLB. But I think writing him off misses both his offensive value and what offensive production from corner OFs in MLB actually looks like these days. This was also true of Marsh, and it wasn't just ballot-stuffing from Phillies fans that made both Marsh and Nick legit second-tier All-Star contenders. It was that everyone else was worse.

In a perfect world the Phillies have a bat like Schwarber in LF and can live with Marsh/Rojas/Kepler as good defensive OFs with less potent bats. But Nick is the potent bat for now.

None of our RHBs are actually guys you really want to see hit 3-4-5. If Kepler doesn't bounce back and Nick is worse than last year that still looks like a hole to me that can only be filled by a deadline deal or a free agent next year.

[David_Criss]

I was hoping when Kepler was signed that it was a sign that Casty was going to be traded. The stupid money is being spent now, not a few years agao. Marsh in left, Rojas in center and Kepler in right would be a very good defensive outfield.

[zambonir]

But not a good offensive OF