Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[bkox]

But nobody's buying a plane ticket to Clearwater to see Kepler or Luzardo

Perhaps their moms did

[phillychuck]

Things that would make the last 10 days of spring more exciting:

Marsh starting to hit enough so that I'm confident with him as the strong side of a platoon.
Rojas starting to throw so that we can take advantage of his defense, at least. Would be happy to see some more offensive progress, too.
A RH outfield bat emerging.
Continued good outings by the MLB starting pitchers.
Casty, Schwarber, Turner, Realmuto, and Stott looking confident at the plate, making solid contact, and not chasing outside the zone.

I'm honestly pretty curious about how this team will play...I think Kepler is an upgrade and Luzardo could be if healthy. I think the bullpen will be fine. I honestly think there is a lot depending on how Thomson chooses and uses the non-starting position players, and how he manages the bullpen, moreso than other years.

[andyb]

It is interesting that the Phillies rank on the Athletic's optimism poll dropped precipitously this year (Negadelphia!). 10th this year after being 3rd and 5th the last 2 years.

MLB Hope-O-Meter results: Ranking fans’ optimism in 2025 for all 30 teams

I feel as good about the team this year as in the last couple of years. Earlier exit in the playoffs affects that, but I think they had a pretty smart offseason where they plugged their two biggest holes with reasonable solutions in Luzardo and Kepler. Bullpen might be a bigger issue for me since Romano feels risky and overall we just have less depth there including in AAA where the next arms leave much to be desired.

But Painter is coming soon and still looks really good. And there is no reason the core will age suddenly. We are not obvious winners like the Dodgers, but the outlook really feels as good as the past 2 seasons.

[allentown]

The Phillies did have a very underwhelming off-season. Kepler doesn't excite me at all. The national writers who think Kepler was a plus signing are the sames ones who wrote that our OF was terrible, with Castellanos being the only pre-Kepler positive, Anyone who can rank Castellanos in the same quality ballpark as Marsh, let alone superior, is totally ignorant of the Phillies team and going by career back-of-baseball-card thinking. Hopefully, this may be the black cat that pushes Kepler to a plus season, but that's how I currently feel about him. For a consistent +3 rWAR every year in Philly, Marsh certainly gets no respect. I'm also not wild about Luzardo.

Looking at the Phillies, we seem to have reduced the quality of the bullpen, while aging a year across the board. For some guys, like Bohm and Stott, that's a good thing, but overrall, I think not.

I'd feel better if Painter were back to form and with us all season, but he isn't.

I don't blame the Phillies for the poor off-season. They're in the same budgetary problem as the Eagles are for the coming season. Despite the one-year older problem, I like the Phillies 2026 chances better than their 2025 odds. Painter, Miller are the big reasons, although I'm hoping some of this off-season's big spenders are $-constrained and brought back to earth next off-season.

The Phillies really could finish 3rd in the NL East this season. They actually could do that and still sneak into the playoffs.

[andyb]

Kepler serves a role in the long side of a platoon for a modest cost.

Our payroll is high. This improves us but sets the table for younger players to take the job. Would I love Juan Soto or one of the other expensive free agents? Sure. But I am also cognizant that the team needs to be smart long term and they'll also need a non-SS position for Turner maybe as soon as next year.

We did what we had to do this offseason with a series of moves that were generally smart that added value for a modest cost. Sometimes you don't swing for the fences and the bullpen can always be improved midseason.

[Austinfan]

So far, Romano looks back, 97 MPH with a wicked slider. Can he be worse than Hoffman?
Alvarado looks much better.
Straham is a worry. Ruiz, Ross 6-7 inning only.
They could use one more 7-9 inning RP.

They're in much better shape in AAA, which means more likely that reinforcements will be ready in July if needed.
They have a legitimate 5th starter, and if Walker is for real, depth they lacked last season.

Biggest question is whether Long can get through to veteran hitters and get them to be more patient.

[gmwannabe]

Poor Griff. he just can't seem to put it together. he is going to flourish with another team. I saw him pitch at Reading 2 years ago. walked the bases loaded, then struck out the side. great stuff.

[andyb]

They're in much better shape in AAA, which means more likely that reinforcements will be ready in July if needed.

Who are these relief pitchers you speak of in AAA? Bunch of reclamation projects there to me. Some might work out, but really there are no relief prospects that stand out. AAA relief help really looks like a weakness to me. Volume <> Quality.

[gmwannabe]

I think the younger kids are the ones that will be effective. some pretty decent pitching today by the relievers. looking forward to them moving up.

[schillingfan]

Most relief pitchers are reclamation projects, or young guys before their arms break down. Look at Hoffman last year.

[andyb]

Most relief pitchers are reclamation projects, or young guys before their arms break down. Look at Hoffman last year.

I would not say most. I also would not consider a converted starter necessarily a reclamation project. Some pitchers like Seranthony Dominguez may not have the secondary pitches and stamina to be a starter, but moving them to the bullpen is more like changing their roles to a proper one.

We have some interesting arms below the AAA level (like Steward and Harper and McFarlane all seen today in the prospect game). AAA just looks like a wasteland to me comparatively with a bunch of older AAAA type arms. A few will probably take a step forward. At the moment now that is a weakness in terms of prospects rather than a strength, especially with a promising arm like McGarry no longer looking like that.

[flyers19rw]

Losing Klassen and Aldegheri for Estevez hurt the number of pitching prospects. No more deals with the Angels please

[zambonir]

The 2022 deals were all good.

[Austinfan]

Steward, McFarlane and Harper will all start in Reading or Lehigh, all three showed ML potential, 98-99 with effective sliders/cutters.
Steward threw much harder than he has as a starter (92-95). If he can't make his secondaries work (especially the changeup) he'll move quickly as a RP.
McFarlane looked great given he's coming off TJ.
All three looked like they were throwing without a lot of effort.

McGarry on the other hand is a mess, hitting 96 with mechanics that were all over the place.

Escobar just looks like a natural, quick bat, he's been hitting what is probably the equivalent of AA/AAA pitching all spring. Think he'll start at Lakewood and skip low A.

Depending on gets claimed on waivers, there will be plenty of reinforcements at Lehigh:
C Stubbs, 1B/2B/3B Kemp, 1B/3B Clemons, IF Kennedy, CF Crawford, LF Stephenson/Mercado, RF Rincones
SP Abel, Johnson, RP Mercado, McMillon, maybe one of the three above.

Bechtold is the wildcard, hadn't heard much from him, but converted from 3B to pitcher in 2023, has hit 98.

[andyb]

McFarlane will almost certainly start in A ball. Possibly even back at Clearwater if they take the slow rehab route with him. I assume he will remain a starter for now, and that probably would mean a good season for him would be getting in the 80-100 range with at least have of that at Jersey Shore. Steward is actually seen as a breakout player and not one who gets a velocity bump in a short outing (see MLB.com prospect article in the minor league thread).

[Austinfan]

Given their depth at SP (4 starters under contract the next couple years plus Painter, and Abel, Johnson, Cabrera and Chace in AA/AAA ball), odds are they make McFarlane a RP on the fast track, Steward is a better bet to stay as a starter if he can master his changeup.

[andyb]

Not sure how their depth at starter affects an A ball potential starter like McFarlane. Maybe they want to fast track him to the bullpen because of a need, but right now he is a starter and likely 3 years away.

Of our starting rotation we have Ranger for 1 year and Luzardo for 2. And potential injuries are always a factor. Even with Painter we are going to make the best decisions for each individual player. With McFarlane I am concerned about him holding out for 180 innings ever. Not concerned about his stuff though. I think they continue to develop him as a starter at least for this year to see how it goes and also to develop his secondary pitches more.

[Austinfan]

He's already 24, to develop him as a starter might take 2-3 years.
As a fast track RP, he could start at Reading and be in Philly before the end of the year, see Kerkering.
If he's throwing 98-99, all he needs is an average to above average cutter/slider. A third pitch as a RP would be a once an inning "show me" pitch.

if they were really worried about his rehab, he wouldn't have been pitching in the game today.

[andyb]

if they were really worried about his rehab, he wouldn't have been pitching in the game today.

i inning? Geez you are reading a whole lot of supposition into zero evidence. McFarlane is older because he got hurt. That does not change the goal of the Phillies to make any pitcher the best pitcher they can be. Like Steward if that is a starter then that is how he should be developed. Dominguez got fast tracked because he had only 2 pitches. McFarlane has more than that (even if he lacks stamina and command).

[Lucky_Beagle]

Wheeler has given up 2 in the first inning so far, but should have been out of the inning 1-2-3-4.
Apparently an error on Bohm and 2 outs before a fly ball to left that Buddy Kennedy let fall for a hit (easy catch by Kepler/Marsh etc) then a 3 bounce throw late to 3rd. Next guy had a 2 run double before a ground out to first ended the inning.