Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[allentown]

Why i Rincones already reduced to a platoon piece before hie even played his first major league game?

I really don't get this comment. In most Phillies prospect ratings, Rincones is in the 10-15 range, although Winkelman has him at 7. The comments prior to yours were positive saying basically that Rincones could make the Phillies next year and get like 400 ABs. You regard this as some sort of diss on Rincones, although this is about as high a take on him as you will find -- anywhere. His record doesn't say he can be an everyday player. But, more importantly, the Phillies are reluctant to say that Marsh will be an everyday player for them this season, despite putting up 3.1 bWAR last year and 3.4bWAR in 2023 for the Phillies, because they haven't been happy with his output against LHP. Nothing in Rincones' record suggest he'll hit LHP better than Marsh does. Nothing in his record tells me that he will be a better Phillies OF than Marsh. Although I'm not happy going with Marsh's D in CF, he's a better CF than Rincones. Honestly, I don't expect Rincones to put up 3.4bWAR for the MLB Phillies. I don't think he needs to be that good to be a Phillies platoon corner OF getting 300-400 AB a year or two from now.

[andyb]

Walker is not trade bait. Maybe if the Phillies pick up $30 of the $36 million, but even then they are not getting much for him.

Even if he did well in the minors or the bullpen he just won't have value after last season for a trade. The better use is for him to pitch well for the Phillies. More chance of that than trading him for something real.

[zambonir]

I'll be happy if they break camp without Walker in the rotation because that means everyone is healthy. Which has actually rarely happened - last year the injured guy was Walker himself (replaced by Turnbull), and in 2023 Strahm had to replace Suarez (plus they had Bailey Falter as the #5 instead of Painter).

They might have to eat as much as 90% to trade him, but it's possible they'd get something for him at that price. But it's also not the end of the world if he takes up the Dylan Covey spot in the bullpen for a while. With this rotation and some length from Ross and Banks, that will truly be a mop-up guy. I know some people don't want to hear it but he's probably worth keeping as depth until Painter is ready. We already know Phillips and Johnson aren't necessarily better (Johnson might be eventually. And Phillips is out of options too).

[el-pietro]

More like Tai Young

[zambonir]

Kind of hard to believe a Yankees game wasn't on TV. Tomorrow is.

• Rojas DH for third time (we now know he's hurt, they say he should be fine to throw/play OF by Opening Day)

• In the story yesterday about Bryce getting HBPed in a rare (if nearby) road game it also said Thomson wants to play the entire starting IF together every time, so that's why we haven't seen much of them. They were supposed to play in the Monday game that got rained out and then didn't travel on Tuesday. Today Bryce was off due to the injury so it was Schwarber 1B plus Clemens, Arroyo and Castro as the starters.

• Kelly Dugan came in for Rojas at DH and went 0-for-2 with a K. I believe that's it for him (i.e. he leaves when the TV crew does).

[Philsmania]

Kind of hard to believe a Yankees game wasn't on TV. Tomorrow is.

• Rojas DH for third time (we now know he's hurt, they say he should be fine to throw/play OF by Opening Day)

In addition to his injury, I wonder if the Phillies really want Rojas to work on--and focus on-his hitting this spring.

[andyb]

If Rojas is hobbled a bit I wonder if this helps Oscar Mercado in the fight for the last roster spot given that he is an actual defensive OF who can stand in CF in an emergency. Not sure I would want Arroyo or Kennedy or Clemens if I might need a defensive option after Marsh or Kepler left the game. Stevenson does that too of course and is on the 40 but they really should prioritize a right-handed bat (and even Rojas is not a great right-handed PH option).

[andyb]

It is not just Sanchez touching 98. Good sign that Luzardo is healthy at least.

Jesús Luzardo touching 98 on Feb. 28 is a decent sign for the Phillies.

— Matt Gelb ( @mattgelb.bsky.social ) February 28, 2025 at 1:11 PM

He threw a nice change to end the 2nd. Slider a little flat in the early going but this is legit 2/3 starter stuff.

[zambonir]

I think that is kind of a bonus for Rojas to only worry about hitting, no doubt. But as sooner as he's cleared to throw he'll be out there.

Of course they could carry Mercado and just let Rojas play every day in AAA for a couple of months. But I agree, he is the most logical replacement for Wilson if you want someone who can actually play the OF, versus, one big PH (which Kennedy can give you).

My guess is unless there's a minimal trade offer for him Clemens breaks camp just to keep him on the roster, much like Altherr did that one year when he was out of options and Quinn got hurt (he was eventually DFA'ed in mid-May).

[Austinfan]

He maintained 97 MPH through his stint, but it was only 2 innings.
Have to wait a couple weeks for his deeper start and see what his velo is at 75-80 pitches.
Averaged 96.7 in 2023 on his 4-seamer, seems he's trying to throw more 2 seamers but I didn't see much movement - no tail away from RH hitters.

[Matt_Winkelman]

He is getting 18 inches of armside movement on the sinker, was at 17.4 inches. For reference that was about an inch less than Sanchez and 1.5 inches more than Suarez. The lack of perceived movement is likely due to the center field camera angle.

[Squire]

Homers from Matt Kroon and Carson DeMartini

[Austinfan]

If Kroon could only stay healthy he might have a shot, but at some point you have to figure he just has some genetic flaw that makes him vulnerable to injury. Some players are indestructible, others seem to be made of flawed glass.

[andyb]

Injuries are not Kroon's problem. It is more a 766 OPS in AAA not being good enough. And at age 28 it is unlikely he will get much better.

[Austinfan]

The injuries cost him a lot of PT.
Even college players tend to need 2000 PA to be ready for the Show.
HS and LA more like 2500.

No one is born ready to hit a slider or spit on a splitter, you need to see a variety of pitches again and again until you learn to recognize them instinctively coming out of a pitcher's hand.

[andyb]

Even college players tend to need 2000 PA to be ready for the Show.
HS and LA more like 2500.

Not many of the good ones. Sometimes players are not good enough. Yes the injuries cost him some repetitions (and your numbers are probably about 500 higher than the typical prospect). But at age 28 he is not going to develop more physically and he has just had a year in AAA where he likely was exposed a bit (see BB/K ratio taking a major dive). I hope he improves and at least gets a cup of coffee in the big leagues, but hope and expectation are very different things. He is really not that great anywhere defensively, so it is really hard to see how he fits even as a 5th OF/utility guy where defense is part of the job.

[zambonir]

Making it all the way AAA is more than most baseball players ever do. Being more than AAAA is just that much harder. But if they really wanted a look at him they wouldn't have claimed Buddy Kennedy last year (and he's two years younger).

[allentown]

Kroon is too old and has had too little success. His chance of making the Phillies out of ST is zero and his chance for call-up during the season is virtually zero. The Phillies never gave Kingery another MLB chance in 2023 and 2024, despite AAA OPS on a par with Kroon and with more positional flexibility because any contribution he might make wasn't worth booting someone else whom the Phillies value more off the rosters. You've said it before: many players have peaked at age 28 and are on the way down.

[Austinfan]

harder. But if they really wanted a look at him they wouldn't have claimed Buddy Kennedy last year (and he's two years younger).

That was my point. The injuries cost him over a year of PT that would have him on the verge of the majors at 25-26 or so.
Now younger guys are taking his place, like Kemp.

Athletes have a short window, if you're not a high draft picks in any sport, you have maybe a 2-3 year window when you're in the high minors (AAA, AHL, NFL practice squad) and maybe earn a cameo or two. Wilson had to wait until he was 29, same with Coste, but for most baseball players the window is 25-27 and then you're an after thought.

[andyb]

If Kroon were only 26 and had not gotten hurt as much he still most likely would not have been good enough. It is not just the age. It is that he is unlikely to get much better.