Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[Matt_Winkelman]

McMillon has been 94-96 T97 since the first electric appearance

[phillychuck]

Matt, do you think he might find another mph or two as he conditions toward the season? The 96-100 number was from a pro scouting website. Did he touch 100 mph earlier this spring?

[zambonir]

The Athletic uploaded the Phillies' Zellus lawsuit, not sure if it would also be paywalled. The story notes how Andy Galdi (former Google guy who helped start the Phillies analytics dept) went to work there and has also hired away several other Phillies people, but that's not part of the lawsuit.

Things sure have changed:

In last year’s media guide, the Phillies listed 31 members in their R&D department — not including [Assistant GM] Kilambi. This year, they reorganized the analytics arms to reflect a growing presence. They list 41 employees over three departments — foundational research and applied biomechanics, predictive modeling, and software engineering. Employees from other departments could fall under the R&D umbrella as well.

THE-PHILLIES-v.-ZELUS-ANALYTICS-INC..pdf

The Phillies paid an analytics company millions. Now they’re suing it over ‘loss...

[zambonir]

He was the early talk of spring training having done so!

I wanted to shoot out a tweet about this earlier, but feared that it might be a bit too baseball-sicko of me.

John McMillon was gross today. Topped out at 100.2 mph on his fastball, and flashed a nasty slider. Will be an interesting arm to keep an eye on going forward. https://t.co/FPpyKlWSXt

— Alex Carr ( @AlexCarrMLB ) February 24, 2025

[andyb]

It is probably not uncommon for a pitcher like McMillon to go all out in his training to turn some heads early in camp. Then hit a bit of a dead arm period.

McMillon was pretty good in limited time in the majors last year but pretty bad in the minors (6.32 ERA, 7.8 BB/9). Only 130 minor league innings in his career and he is now 27 years old. Just sounds like somebody who has had trouble throwing strikes (and probably staying healthy) his entire career. I think he never had much of a chance to make the team out of Spring Training simply because it would be good for him to get 30 more innings in AAA regardless.

[zambonir]

All kinds of news today.

The Phillies say they are going to give Brandon Marsh runway early this season as the everyday center fielder, starting him against left-handed pitching.

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/brandon-marsh-to-be-phillies-everyday-center-fielder-in-2025

And, no surprise

Phillies option Garrett Stubbs to Triple-A; Rafael Marchán wins backup catching...

[Austinfan]

I think they're playing with fire with Marsh in CF, Casty in RF, and Turner at SS.
Nice fluff piece about Turner working on his fielding, but I'll believe he's an average SS these days when he does it on the field. He has the tools, but blows too many routine plays.
We know Casty is awful, and Marsh just doesn't have CF range, at least Kepler shouild be above average in LF.

Problem comes when defense starts extending innings and wearing down the bullpen.

[zambonir]

If they all hit, it's fine. If Marsh can't keep it going against lefties, there's Rojas. If Casty bottoms out they will have to go get someone at the deadline, Rojas or Crawford still won't be the answer for the offense.

I'd be more worried about Turner's future, period. He was 3.9 FG WAR and 124 WRC+ last year and 4.2 WAR and 108 WRC+ in 2023. Lower WAR last year was due to fewer games played I assume, but is he really going to be a good enough hitter for LF (or a good enough defensive 3B) by 2027?

[kmc1019]

I don't disagree with you on Turner, but there is the reality of a long-term, likely untradeable contract for a player who arguably already has aged out of playing shortstop. I would venture that Turner at 2B or left field is a likely reality in the next 2 years.

[zambonir]

Oh for sure, it is what it is. But for now there's no one else on the current Phillies roster who should be the everyday SS. Even Stott is not seen as being above average there. Which also raises the question of how you actually move Turner to 2B before 2028.

The Schwarber situation still strikes me as the big pivot point. He'd be a huge loss but signing someone like Tucker to play the OF instead would also open up DH to rotate some of these older players for a few seasons, Turner and Harper and JT (assuming he's re-signed) included (as well as Casty for one year).

And Marsh is still a more than competent CF. Neutral there I believe, versus plus in LF. Rojas is still plus in CF but not so much to outweigh the offense. The idea that you could carry his bat was based on the semi-fantasy that he was Gold Glove caliber (dues to his insane defensive runs saved in his first season), as well as the feeling that the Phillies offense was so good that you could give away outs at the 9 spot. And they could, but not so much in the second half last year.

[andyb]

I would venture that Turner at 2B or left field is a likely reality in the next 2 years.

That could be a gold glove defensive player at those positions though. Or at least like Bryce being above average at an easier position. Turner with his athleticism should still age relatively well assuming he stays healthy. And long contracts are just the cost of doing business for a wealthy team.

[zambonir]

What about CF? Could you squeeze a couple of years out of his legs there?

[andyb]

What about CF? Could you squeeze a couple of years out of his legs there?

Definitely like Robin Yount. Where Turner would go would depend in part on whether we have better CFs. Turner might have an average SS arm but it could be a bit below average in the OF (which might push him to LF).

Some of this will depend on who else develops in our system (i.e. Miller and/or Crawford and even Escobar) and also whether we spend money on other OFs like Kyle Tucker. I doubt we extend Bohm beyond free agency also and we really don't know if Stott will get better and be kept longer too.

[phillychuck]

Nice fluff piece about Turner working on his fielding, but I'll believe he's an average SS these days when he does it on the field. He has the tools, but blows too many routine plays.

Statistically by UZR and runs saved he already is an average SS, and has been since his Nationals days. He's just not special there.

[zambonir]

On the one hand the Phillies really seemed to overrate and overvalue Turner in expecting both his elite offensive production and above-average SS play. On the other, Correa has not been healthy, Bogaerts already moved to 2B and Swanson's not a top-line bat, so they didn't necessarily choose wrong. Unless, of course, they'd chosen to leave Stott at SS. Then they could have spent the Turner money on a LF or 1B (including Hoskins) and filled 2B more modestly. But we'd probably still be talking about someone else's albatross of a contract (or watching Rhys's decline), and we still wouldn't actually have an elite SS (plus of course they moved Bryce to 1B).

[Austinfan]

It's a mistake to pay big money to a SS or CF based on their fielding at the same level in their 30s.

While batters can adjust to some extent (though I have my doubts about Turner), fielders can't overcome loss of range as they age. So if their bat doesn't play at a less valuable position, don't pay.

[andyb]

It's a mistake to pay big money to a SS or CF based on their fielding at the same level in their 30s.

You just hate all long term contracts. Nobody expects fielding for a SS or CF (other than maybe the Ozzie Smith category) to remain at a peak or a plus level. What SS and CF long term contracts do, however, is generally give you an athletic player that ages very well. I think Turner can be an average fielder at lesser positions into his late 30s certainly. A less athletic player will be a 1B or DH pretty quickly.

Long contracts for up the middle defensive players probably age better than long contracts elsewhere.

[zambonir]

I don't think the Phillies expect Turner to be worth his contract in the last 2-3 years. That's just the price of doing business. He'll still be good enough in LF or at 2B or 3B for awhile, just not as good as some of the 29 or 30 year-olds who would be available in free agency if that money wasn't spent.

And while we can hope Miller and Crawford are the answers at SS and CF, the Phillies still don't have any corner OF or 3B type bats close to stepping up. Hopefully Stott still has a much higher ceiling and Marsh does well enough at the plate (including against LHB) to where he could go back to LF or replace Casty, but they'll still need another OF bat if Turner doesn't go there (assuming Crawford or Rojas in CF).

[Philsmania]

Getting back to Walker yesterday, two ways to look at his rough outing.

On the one hand, yesterday was just one game, so don't worry.

On the other hand, the last week of ST is when you start facing actual ML lineups from top to bottom, so worry.

[zambonir]

Which pitchers (or hitters) should we worry about today? (I'm not watching but Braves are up 7-0).

Like you say, just one game. Because of how Walker pitched last year obviously it's a bigger red flag. But it could happen to anyone. Nola had a 6.75 ST ERA in 2023 (granted, he wasn't so great for a much of the regular season either but nothing like that). Wheeler had an 8.31 ERA after one regular season start that same year.

Ideally Ranger is still in the mix