Phillies Off-Season 2024-2025 (Part 2 including Spring Training)

[andyb]

The reality is that Casty is just going to play every day as long as he maintains something like a 700 OPS. The defensive stats will show whether he is a 0.5 WAR player or 2.0 WAR player but we all know those are highly variable. It is possible he'll lose playing time if he slumps, but unless Rincones looks ready we just don't have much of an alternative now. I do not expect a lot of Kepler-Rojas-Marsh lineups unless Casty is noticeably slumping. Casty is at least fairly consistent year to year so we probably should expect something close to the roughly 750 OPS we got the past 2 seasons (actual OPS average was 765).

Long term who knows? Rincones is most likely to replace Kepler as part of a platoon next year than Castellanos. No idea if Rojas can hit well enough to play every day. And Crawford needs to improve his defense in CF to be an option there. That is very possible, but more for 2026 than 2025. Definitely not considering anything from Aroon Escobar now. Trea Turner is actually a more viable OF option for next year assuming Miller claims an infield job.

[Jazzhead]

I think Rojas may be ready to break out as a regular, and fill a role similar to Victor Robles in Seattle or Jacob Young in Washington. There is an enormous ancillary benefit to having an elite glove in CF, especially if we're going to keep running Casty out there. But an outfield of Marsh in left, Rojas in center and Kepler in right will immediately improve all of the Phils pitchers, and while that trio aren't 30-homer boppers, their speed and occasional power will make them quite useful, even if they are bunched together at the bottom of the order.

[andyb]

An outfield of Kepler, Rojas, and Marsh would be among the weakest offensive outfields in baseball. Good defensively, but way below average offensively. I just don't see the team trying that too often.

Rojas needs to improve his offense to play every day. And since he can't throw yet, he is clearly not a defensive option either early in the year. Hopefully by May he is back 100% but we are not there yet.

[zambonir]

While a lot depends on the Schwarber/JT decision as well as the Turner position question, if there were prop bets on the Phillies signing Tucker or Guerrero I'd probably risk a few bucks (they also might both be available in July). Obviously the latter would be more of a longshot/far more $$$.

And Turner could also go to 3B, though if Bohm plays well enough to increase his trade value at the higher salary, he'll also still be good enough to keep.

I hope Rojas surprises everyone - which is to say, "Dom," and Preston Mattingly, since every move the Phillies have made both last deadline and this off-season was made without him in the picture as anything other than the 4th OF. Most notably, actively choosing to move a good defensive LF to CF and good defensive RF to LF (which is also a vote for their belief in Castellanos's bat, not just his paycheck).

[Philsmania]

Actually found myself looking at the Phiillies front office directory, even. This is what ownership looks like now. Big change from the opaque days!

This is the first I am hearing of the Morgan and Weissenberger families.

I had to look it up..they bought in back in November. https://temple-news.com/temple-board-of-trustees-chair-joins-phillies-ownership-group/#:~:text=Mitchell%20Morgan%2C%20valued%20at%20%245.5,Phillies%2C%20the%20MLB%20announced%20Friday.&text=The%20Philadelphia%20Phillies%20announced%20Friday,of%20Trustees%20chairman%20Mitchell%20Morgan.

Surprised the Gillicks and Montgomeries weren't bought out.

Question: Are any of the Bucks the original Bucks who bought in in 1981? If not, we technically and legally have had the same ownership since 1981 though its composition has had 100% turnover since then. Even so, the Bucks are the last remnant of the original group.

[zambonir]

Yes, was news at the time, prompting more talk about the CBT and development projects (both in FL and South Philly).

https://www.mlb.com/press-release/release-new-limited-partners-to-join-phillies-ownership-group-11-1-24#:~:text=Phillies%20Managing%20Partner%20and%20Chief,who%20wishes%20to%20remain%20anonymous.

The Gillick and Monty shares are tiny, and the "families" part suggests their heirs can keep it (in Monty's case, already has). Neither of them paid a penny for them of course.

It is the children or possibly grandchildren of one or more of the original Bucks.

[Callison]

Looking for news, found a glowing article about Walker. Congrats to him for doing what was necessary to compete again. Looks like he has a couple more mph. And there was another article saying he looked a lot better, but after giving up a HR. Walker still has everything to prove.

Also found a really hopeful article on Stott: https://www.mlb.com/news/bryson-stott-phillies-camp-2025#:~:text=But%20Stott%20is%20healthy%20this,in%2013%20Grapefruit%20League%20games. Long thinks he can hit .300. Stott could become the leadoff hitter the Phils need - Stott, Turner, Harper, Schwarbs. Some of the best news out of ST is that Stott is hitting better, apparently recovered from the injury that limited him all last season.

I disliked the Kepler signing because IMHO there are better internal moves available and the money could be spent on the pen, but Kepler looks ready to take over LF. Haven't seen much of him but he's winning the position that's being handed to him.

Nice outing by Sanchez.

[andyb]

Walker going today. Curious to see some impressions (my MLB.TV does not work yet because we are in the period between when MLB bills for the season and T-Mobile's new year deal kicks in next week).

[zambonir]

We've talked about lack of interest here, and I think another factor is depleted media coverage. Gelb just had almost a full week off at The Athletic (maybe he went home or maybe he was working on more extensive pieces to run next week) and Alex Coffey also hasn't filed from Clearwater in a week (she just did a basketball story) after doubling up with Lauber for a while at the Inquirer.

You jinxed Walker Andy he just issued his second walk of the season, and now a little hit.

[zambonir]

This story is starting to spread now

Phillies Sue Over Potential Sale of Analytics Software to Rival Teams

Non paywalled:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/phillies-sue-over-potential-sale-of-analytics-software-to-rival-teams/ar-AA1Bf8kV?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=f8611d91dd6f4a21b423a713faa4fb6e&ei=11

[andyb]

You jinxed Walker Andy he just issued his second walk of the season, and now a little hit.

If he can't survive my jinx he's not going to get Juan Soto out.

[phillychuck]

Walker making the '25 Yankees B-team look like the '27 Yankees...

[allentown]

This may explain why Dom didn't do much this offseason,

I think DD didn't do more this off-season because the salary budget is as high as the owners are comfortable with and DD is committed to veteran players, while also realizing that he can't trade

[phillychuck]

People get on Torts, but he'd bench Harper if he was hurting the team, none of this coddling the egos of big money players - it's a team game, so do what it takes to help the team win.

I commented on this whole post once, but I wanted to direct a specific comment to this painfully misguided idea. If any MLB manager benched a player because he didn't like him swinging at sliders on the outside corner or chasing low change-ups or trying to tomahawk high FBs (JT's weakness) or whatever, he'd be fired the next day and never work in MLB again. This "the players are spoiled babies that don't care about winning and you need a dictatorial manager to keep 'em in line" idea is baloney.

Sports and baseball don't work that way; good managers try to HELP their players succeed. As Casey Stengel once said, "every MLB clubhouse has 5 guys who love you, 5 guys who hate you, and 15 guys on the fence (25 total at that time!). My job is to keep the 5 guys who hate me from converting the 15 guys on the fence ."

[allentown]

An outfield of Kepler, Rojas, and Marsh would be among the weakest offensive outfields in baseball.

In addition to his limited OF range and poor defensive rating, Castellanos is not our top offensive OF. For 3 years in Philly, his OPS+ is 105. In 3 years, Marsh has an OPS+ of 117. Kepler is a year younger than Castellanos and has a 102 OPS+ over the past 3 seasons and career. Casty's 3 OPS+ point advantage over Kepler comes at the cost of much poorer D. I'm not sure what Rojas can be offensively. Certainly our best choice as a defensive CF. His first-year in limited Phillies action was good. His second year with twice as many ABs was crash and burn.

You say: "The reality is that Casty is just going to play every day as long as he maintains something like a 700 OPS."
I don't doubt that this is the reality. My point is that this is a stupid reality for the Phillies to have. Castellanos with a .700 OPS is a below average MLB OF from just the standpoint of offense and a way-below average MLB OF when you also consider D>

[julio]

Question: Are any of the Bucks the original Bucks who bought in in 1981?

Depends on exactly what you mean. None of the three brothers who bought in 1981 is still alive; the last of them died in 2023. The current Buck owners are descendents. But unless things have changed, the actual part-owner is Tri-Play LP (the Buck family's limited partnership). So, did their ownership "change," or does inheritance/change of officers of a LP not count as an ownership change?

[bkeich]

So, are we getting close to admitting Walker is no longer a Major League Pitcher? He needed to have a good Spring. He has a 6.92 ERA.

Please stop this silliness and just release him. The money is spent, there is no value in losing more games to prove it.

[Austinfan]

That's what I mean about lazy managing, if Casty doesn't hit, he's a detriment to the team, contract and character be damned.
"it's not personal, Sonny. It's strictly business."

Casty ain't getting paid $20M a year cause he's a nice guy to have around the team.

And that's the attitude a good manager should have, you don't panic b/c a player is in a slump, but if he keeps making the same mistakes or shows he can't hit a ML FB or . . . the manager is paid to make unpopular decisions.

Now past history guides some of these decisions, you have a lot more patience with Harper than Casty, you have patience with Stott b/c he's younger and has shown flashes. But if JT is struggling, maybe you cut his workload back even if he wants to play everyday, "you're no spring chicken, kid."

[mdougherty12]

It sounds like Walker might be the fifth starter to start the season with Suarez on the IL:

https://www.mlb.com/news/ranger-suarez-s-back-injury-has-phillies-rotation-in-flux

[zambonir]

Ugh. Not like we didn't always know this might happen. Maybe the Suarez-to-the-pen argument gets stronger if Walker pitches well. That's still a big if. But I'd still sooner let him have his chances than weaken the pen further w/o Ross. You can't use ERA in the tiny spring training sample as a measure. He's had some good innings and promising stuff. But there's also still questions (the splitter).

julio, I wonder if the process of the Bucks - mostly them, I believe - and Middleton selling off shares to the three new owners also prompted the dissolution of Tri-Play and a renaming. But it could also just be semantics. Those other families (including Middleton) surely have LPs or LLCs whether they have unique names or not.

This was at the time of the Middleman ownership purchase. I don't think a similar level of detail was released when the two addition people bought in, though that was when MIddleton slightly reduced his own share.

As a result of the recent passing of longtime Phillies owner William C. Buck, the Buck family has decided to diversify its assets by reducing its ownership interest in the club. Late last week an agreement was reached whereby Middleman will purchase one-third of the Buck family interest. Tri-Play, the Buck family limited partnership that holds the Phillies interest, will continue to be owned by the three family branches.