Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[zambonir]

It's not like the Phillies didn't try it. Lavine turned down the job and Piccolo wasn't hired the previous time, but Klentak was essentially a small-market/analytics hire even if he was in Anaheim by then.

They also could have hired Stearns himself had they not waited so long in 2015.

I think they got it a lot righter than they might have with the way Fuld and Mattingly have worked out under Dombrowski, and it's not like the strategy of filling around the edges cheaply and cleverly is new either. Sometimes you just don't get it right. Gillick's teams did.

[andyb]

Gee, I've been recommending that for a decade.

And it has not been good advice for a decade! Every player is different. Hitting is a mix of discipline and aggression and there are different paths to success. Nobody wants hitters to swing at pitches outside of the zone. But the goal also is to do significant damage on pitches IN the zone. And players that age well tend to be athletic. Rhys Hoskins does not appear to be aging well. Bryce Harper IS however and it is his athleticism and aggressiveness that is driving much of that.

In general your one size fits all philosophy is just wrong. You are adverse to spending money as well. I have every confidence the Phillies will continue to spend money to address weaknesses. They chose to bolster starting pitching this offseason instead of the bullpen. Will that be a mistake if Sanchez is healthy and Painter is dominant? Maybe because then we would not need Luzardo. But I am kind of glad we have him and assume we can address the bullpen over time.

[VoteForKalas]

Gillick inherited quite a bit too.

I always go back to the Larry Brown vs Phil Jackson paradigm for GM

There are builder GM (Brown) and there are closer GM (Jackson).

Brown was really good at developing talent and building cohesive teams, but his teams usually never won championships.

Jackson, OTOH, only took jobs where the talent was already there and developed and all the team needed to do was win the championship or add 1 other player to be good enough to win one. Thus, Jackson won all kinds of championships.

[zambonir]

Yeah Gillick and DD both inherited quite a bit (including Victorino in Gillick's case). Gillick had Jenkins and Werth and Feliz at the edges, DD has Sosa but that's about it (I consider Marsh a success and more than just on the edge, current year aside).

DD probably still did just as well as Gillick as a closer, it just didn't work out those first two years. Now he's kind of where Amaro was in 2010-2011. That's really what it comes down to isn't it? This could still be 2011, with a good or bad October ending. Or if it goes bad, it's already 2012.

[allentown]

. Or kept Hays, for that matter.

Bingo! He knew Hays was hurt last season and was far too quick to dump him. Yes, Romano was sort of reasonably priced, but only if you assumed he would return to form post-injury. He may be great next year, but not under contract with us. It's hard to judge the fair value of a pitcher coming back from serious injury, I'm not saying the cost wasn't fair, simply that he wasn't cheap -- this was DD's big bullpen spend and thus far, it's a washout.

" This could still be 2011, with a good or bad October ending. Or if it goes bad, it's already 2012."
Exactly.

[bkox]

Rhys Hoskins does not appear to be aging well.

May be too soon to say that. his 125 OPS+ this year is 3 points higher than his career OPS+

[zambonir]

I didn't mind that he passed on Hays but I didn't expect him to opt for a LHB having done so, nor to pay twice as much money as Hays ultimately got for a similarly unsure thing. As you noted it wasn't realistic to get a bigger FA (like Profar or O'Neil, let alone Santander) but the pieces are a weird fit, offensively, handedly and defensively.

[andyb]

May be too soon to say that. his 125 OPS+ this year is 3 points higher than his career OPS+

He has hit well the last week or so, but they are also sitting him half the time against RHP. His WAR with Milwaukee was -0.2 last year and +0.3 this year. He is just not that valuable if he has to platoon some and defensively is a DH.

[Austinfan]

The only reason to get Kepler was if you were planning to platoon Castellanos.

[andyb]

Castellanos cannot play both LF and RF at the same time. They got Kepler largely because they were unsure about Rojas. And that is still the case even if some early signs are positive.

[andyb]

Matt summarizes the Seth Johnson move here. I think this is mostly about the lack of options but am intrigued if his fastball plays up. Timeframe would not be immediate, but hopefully they have an idea of whether this works by the deadline in July.

Phillies Move Seth Johnson to the Bullpen

[VoteForKalas]

Now he's kind of where Amaro was in 2010-2011. That's really what it comes down to isn't it? This could still be 2011, with a good or bad October ending. Or if it goes bad, it's already 2012.

I think we are likely in the equivalent of the 2010 season this year.

Phillies, having sent Lee away in the offseason, then traded for Oswalt in late July. We won one round vs CIN and then fell to the SFG in the NLCS.

I can see DD trading for pitching at the deadline to solidify the pen, but the offense remains set. I see the 2024 team making the playoffs, winning a series and then falling short in similar fashion.

In 2011, Lee came back and we had the fearsome foursome rotation that won a lot of games, but the team blinked hard in the playoffs. I do not see as much regular season success for this current team next season if DD does not more significantly revamp the payroll, lineup and pen. He gets one more chance IMO before we hit the iceberg.

If he does revamp well, I think they could open a new contention window, but I wish he had started the process this past offseason.

[zambonir]

I guess I think they will have to be more aggressive at the deadline this year if they are in playoff position. I mean, right now at least one of Marsh and Kepler are no more acceptable than Merrifeld was, or Rojas turned out be offensively (when no RHB was acquired) in 2023 or Hays was probably going to be even if healthy (except in the platoon role). I don't know how you repeat that mistake again, though it's also easier said than done (in terms of prospect cost).

The bigger crossroads for '26 regardless of what happens is JT, Schwarber, and whether to move on from Bohm or even Marsh (plus, as ever, Nick). Which I guess is another reason why the rotation came first this year, the line-up's turn comes next year, with both money and youth available.

[andyb]

After this season I would not be shocked that our assessment of DD would be about the Bohm deal he did not make. There is an argument that a Sosa/Clemens platoon would have been fine and Bohm would likely have delivered either pitching or a better LF bat.

[Philsmania]

After this season I would not be shocked that our assessment of DD would be about the Bohm deal he did not make. There is an argument that a Sosa/Clemens platoon would have been fine and Bohm would likely have delivered either pitching or a better LF bat.

He did shop Bohm but asked for a lot in return.

[BostonRoss]

It's really hard to know what Bohm could have brought in a deal. It seems likely to me that we couldn't have improved this year's team much by trading Bohm, unless the deal also required taking on a lot more salary. I don't think Bohm is a good long term option, but he has value and doesn't cost a lot yet.

[andyb]

The question really is whether Bohm's value would have been more useful at other positions on this team. One of the reasons he had value is that he was less expensive than free agent options. Being less expensive may have been more valuable to other teams than us.

I think we found out that Bohm really did not have much value in the end. 2024 was the only year he was worth over 1.0 WAR. Most teams probably projected him closer to his sub-1 WAR years. Unfortunately that is what we are getting now as the sub-par defense is back and the power looks like it will never materialize.

[zambonir]

It sounds like they really wanted to trade Bohm for pitching though. That was their ask of Seattle. Whether they could have gone after Bregman or Tucker (starting with Bohm and the two guys they gave up for Luzardo but it would have been more) or come up with another plan for LF or 3B who knows. It is fine they didn't throw more money at the problem.... For now.

[EDmuch]

My goodness, please no more Marsh in 2026. Same with Kepler.

[Philsmania]

Marsh will soon be a two-time "could use a change of scenery" guy.