Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[zambonir]

Yeah I'm not saying Middleton is a bad owner by any means. A vast improvement over not just Giles financially but also Monty temperamentally. But at the same time, he was part of the both of those eras [or his father was], and if the bar is now the Dodgers and Mets and various other hedge-fund/private equity ownerships, getting to $301 million and then apparently being unwilling or unready to spend or absorb another $20 or 30 million seems curious, and perhaps even a bit of the old Phillies gentility compared to the brash Mets owner and financial disruptors of the Dodgers ownership. The recent expansion of the ownership group even suggests a return to more of the Giles model, even if Middleton still has the hammer.

But mostly, it took him a few years to get it right. The way I see it 2016-2020 may as well have not happened, other than on the major league roster. He was not yet a good owner and he hired a terrible PBO who hired a flawed GM, and that trickled down to the manager and the scouts and development guys too. And you can argue Barber [hired by the Klentak/Middleton/Girardi] hasn't been a home run either, just that he cleared the very low bar of the two guys before him.

So unlike VFK I don't find the lack of progress especially surprising, and it's not like there haven't been any positives whatsoever.

Middleton became the controlling owner in 2016. It has been nearly a decade and we've seen little evidence the farm system has improved. Of course it is not easy to build a good system, but after 9 years one would think there might be some positive signs. Is that unrealistic? How long should we give him? 15 years? 20 years?

Of course, "how long should we give him?" is a rhetorical question since he's the one guy we can't fire.

[andyb]

Rangel up for Ross (IL back spasms). Robertson can't be recalled till August 5th (though he needs 3 or 4 minor league outings if not a few more).

Next couple of weeks will likely feature a rotating cast in the bullpen. Ross on the IL does give them some time to think through whether he would be better if his back healed. And they could stretch out his time on the IL if they had to.

[julio]

Rangel up for Ross (IL back spasms). Robertson can't be recalled till August 5th (though he needs 3 or 4 minor league outings if not a few more).

Robertson could be recalled earlier as an injury replacement, if somebody else hits the injured list? Not that he's really likely to be ready sooner than 8/5...

[zambonir]

Technically, he already can, since Ross hit the IL after Robertson was optioned. But yeah, they pretty much want him to have two weeks. It's his spring training. We might have to expect a bumpy August even.

[Philsmania]

Yeah I'm not saying Middleton is a bad owner by any means. A vast improvement over not just Giles financially but also Monty temperamentally. But at the same time, he was part of the both of those eras [or his father was], and if the bar is now the Dodgers and Mets and various other hedge-fund/private equity ownerships, getting to $301 million and then apparently being unwilling or unready to spend or absorb another $20 or 30 million seems curious, and perhaps even a bit of the old Phillies gentility compared to the brash Mets owner and financial disruptors of the Dodgers ownership. The recent expansion of the ownership group even suggests a return to more of the Giles model, even if Middleton still has the hammer.

But mostly, it took him a few years to get it right. The way I see it 2016-2020 may as well have not happened, other than on the major league roster. He was not yet a good owner and he hired a terrible PBO who hired a flawed GM, and that trickled down to the manager and the scouts and development guys too. And you can argue Barber [hired by the Klentak/Middleton/Girardi] hasn't been a home run either, just that he cleared the very low bar of the two guys before him.

So unlike VFK I don't find the lack of progress especially surprising, and it's not like there haven't been any positives whatsoever.

Middleton became the controlling owner in 2016. It has been nearly a decade and we've seen little evidence the farm system has improved. Of course it is not easy to build a good system, but after 9 years one would think there might be some positive signs. Is that unrealistic? How long should we give him? 15 years? 20 years?

Of course, "how long should we give him?" is a rhetorical question since he's the one guy we can't fire.

As PC references in another thread, we do seem to develop pitchers well, by and large. Bats have been a problem, though.

[xogfog]

Here is my plan going forward. When Nola comes back, I call up Abel and Painter, I then move Abel, Walker and Luzardo to the bullpen, Nola And Painter to the rotation. You also get Robertson and Alverado back for the last few weeks as you push for the division lead, That lessens the need for a bullpen arm via trade.

You call up Crawford to play CF and trade Marsh and a lessor prospect for a RH power hitting LF.

[Philsmania]

Here is my plan going forward. When Nola comes back, I call up Abel and Painter, I then move Abel, Walker and Luzardo to the bullpen, Nola And Painter to the rotation. You also get Robertson and Alverado back for the last few weeks as you push for the division lead, That lessens the need for a bullpen arm via trade.

You call up Crawford to play CF and trade Marsh and a lessor prospect for a RH power hitting LF.

In my opinion, Painter has not shown that he can pitch in MLB this season. After basically losing two years to the injury, a half a season of conservative treatment which did not solve the problem and surgery, this is probably his recovery and rebuild season. Let him finish the AAA season and then hopefully we'll see him at top form in 2026. Keep Walker in the rotation because he's actually been adequate as a fifth starter. I'm still in the sell-high on Abel camp.

[andyb]

What makes you think Abel could be decent in the bullpen despite never having tried in the past? Even with Painter we are talking about potential tandem bullpen starts rather than a regular role if he is not in the rotation.

I admit I am intrigued by seeing Luzardo as a bullpen solution. He is having issues pitching with runners on though, so I am not completely sold. But he is good in the first couple of innings in most of his bad starts and would fit cleanly into the Alvarado role for the playoffs.

[Philsmania]

What makes you think Abel could be decent in the bullpen despite never having tried in the past? Even with Painter we are talking about potential tandem bullpen starts rather than a regular role if he is not in the rotation.

I admit I am intrigued by seeing Luzardo as a bullpen solution. He is having issues pitching with runners on though, so I am not completely sold. But he is good in the first couple of innings in most of his bad starts and would fit cleanly into the Alvarado role for the playoffs.

Perhaps if Luzardo is a guy who comes in to start an inning instead of coming in with runners on, he would be successful. He comes off the rails after three innings or so. He might be a guy we can bring in to shut the other team down for a couple of innings.

[xogfog]

Painter would be a fifth starter, he would be at least as good as Walker and the experience would be good for him. Abel might flourish in a bullpen role, where he could air it out for an inning. I don't think that would be asking a lot of him, he's still has a young arm and his stuff would probably be better than Romano's.

[zambonir]

Who is the RH-hitting power LF bat you can actually get for Marsh? Or Crawford for that matter.

Having one starting pitcher in the playoffs as your 5th-best reliever instead of someone like Soto or the diminished Seranthony [as they were in 2023, not now] is obviouly a good plan but they still need someone else for the Top Four [Strahm, Kerkering, Robertson, ?]. It's not Banks or Lazar, and it wouldn't be Abel or Painter.

Assuming you can count on Alvarado to just pick up where he left off, or for Luzardo to just replace him easily, is a lot. Certainly if they don't find a trade that works for them they will try it - and maybe they want to try it sooner than later rather than expecting Luzardo go straight from starting to relief in October - but it's not Plan A or B.

Right now we can't even assume Ranger is a surefire starting pitcher, and Nola is a complete unknown.

I'm still dreaming of a bigger trade for someone we are not expecting. Otherwise it will probably be a platoon LF as usual, plus the reliever.

[zambonir]

The "trade deadline" part just feels like SEO, though it also relates to whether Luzardo can actually pitch out of the pen.

https://www.mlb.com/phillies/news/jesus-luzardo-struggles-continue-ahead-of-trade-deadline

....his last 10 starts (3-5, 8.04 ERA).

Luzardo is perhaps the most ideal candidate [to move to the pen] because of his stuff, but he has struggled to pitch out of the stretch.

• With bases empty/windup this season: .255/.310/.346 (4.14 strikeout-to-walk ratio).

• With runners on base/stretch: .291/.367/.467 (2.23 strikeout-to-walk ratio).

[mdougherty12]

Trea Turner hasn't lost a step yet:

https://www.mlb.com/news/byron-buxton-trea-turner-maintaining-elite-speed

[EDmuch]

Laureano

[VoteForKalas]

Question for the Yanks series (Yes, I miss our old series prediction threads)

Do you pitch to Judge with no one on base or IBB him?

Judge SLG: .717; the next guy is Bellinger at .506

Judge has 37 HR; the next guy is Bellinger with 18

Judge has 87 RBI; next guy is Bellinger with 57

Most common lineup this season has Judge batting 2nd, Bellinger 3rd

+++++++

Same question with Schwarber.

Schwarber SLG: .564; next guy is Harper at .502

Schwarber has 34 HR; next guy is Harper with 14

Schwarber has 78 RBI; next guy is Casty with 55

Most common lineup this season has Harper batting 2nd, Schwarber 4th and Casty 5th. Bohm is obviously out now so Schwarber batted 2nd with Harper 3rd vs Boston.

+++++++++

I would likely IBB Judge a high % of the time with no one on base. I'd do it with Schwarber less because Harper is a better hitter than Bellinger IMO even if Bellinger has posted better stats by playing in more games this season so far.

[julio]

(Yes, I miss our old series prediction threads)

You know what the solution to that is, right?

[Philsmania]

Question for the Yanks series (Yes, I miss our old series prediction threads)

Do you pitch to Judge with no one on base or IBB him?

Judge SLG: .717; the next guy is Bellinger at .506

Judge has 37 HR; the next guy is Bellinger with 18

Judge has 87 RBI; next guy is Bellinger with 57

Most common lineup this season has Judge batting 2nd, Bellinger 3rd

+++++++

Same question with Schwarber.

Schwarber SLG: .564; next guy is Harper at .502

Schwarber has 34 HR; next guy is Harper with 14

Schwarber has 78 RBI; next guy is Casty with 55

Most common lineup this season has Harper batting 2nd, Schwarber 4th and Casty 5th.

The Bonds 2001 Rule? I remember watching a September 2001 Giants-Astros game in Houston when the Astros kept walking Bonds. Even the Astro fans were booing.

[VoteForKalas]

The Bonds 2001 Rule? I remember watching a September 2001 Giants-Astros game in Houston when the Astros kept walking Bonds. Even the Astro fans were booing.

Sure, but which team won those games?

[VoteForKalas]

You know what the solution to that is, right?

I do

I've been doing the series tracker thread, but am thinking of doing prediction threads for the stretch run. We'll see how things progress.

[julio]

Go for it, VFK!