Yup, agreed, Bautista is a good target. He's also not having a great year (WHIP has shot from .918 to 1.338) so that's minor a negotiating point in the Phillies favor. And then he will probably break out heart like Alvarado, Kimbrel, Hoffman and Estevez all have, because that's October for ya.
Marsh, Robertson and Thor all helped, though that was also a season where the Phillies had to make the playoffs, and needed pitching depth to do it. They still mattered in the actual post-season too though. And if you're going all the way back to Pence, Joe Blanton was useful. So was Cliff Lee and Oswalt (even though all he did was replace Cliff Lee). But this team doesn't need SPs.
I think the Phillies' failure to get a bat in '23 and the fact that Hays was a bust in '24 really did hurt them, but that doesn't mean they can get it right this year. Most deadline deals are overrated but that's because of the nature of the playoffs and the fact that only one team truly succeeds in the end. Did Estevez really help last year? The team was better before they revamped the bullpen, though not necessarily because of that (in either direction) and he was the last bad pitcher in the Mets series (but one of several). Anyone they get for the pen this year is going to be a risk but they definitely need help. If keeping Abel leads to Ranger in the pen and Painter taking middle innings in October that is a legit path too.
And while it's nice that Alvarado will come back and help them lock down whatever playoff seed they're chasing, his innings and role goes poof! in October so it is pretty important to have someone who pushes him down the pecking order by the deadline.
Until we see what Nola has it's hard to handicap it. In a perfect world he comes back and reclaims his spot and Painter comes up and is great and Abel never pitches for the Phillies again until roster expansion. But we all know a lot of different variables exist.
