Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[zambonir]

It is too early to say he specifically is in the process of actually declining. But not too early to say what Andy did, which is that players don't typically improve their raw physical skills after the age of 27, and defense often goes before the bat.

[BostonRoss]

I am not sure that it is true that players don't typically improve defensively after age 27 (at least without some evidence). But not improving isn't the same thing is declining.

I took a quick look at two Phillies second basemen who were good defensively. Placido Polanco average more dWAR per season for the Tigers than for the Phillies and didn't really start declining until his early 30s. Chase Utley had two full seasons through age 27 and averaged 2.4 dWAR per season. From age 28 to 30, he also averaged 2.4 dWAR per season. He had 2.1 at age 31 while missing over 40 games. He did start declining after that, but of course he had only one more full injury-free season.

[zambonir]

Of course the 27 thing is conventional wisdom. Not without evidence though. We just like to think our players are always outliers. When they are named Harper or Schwarber (and don't have to play the field), maybe so. When they are named Bohm and Stott, seemingly not.

And injuries are part of it. This may in fact be the big concern with Stott. Last year was explained away as being due to the fact that he was never healthy (but not hurt enough to go on the DL). So we can hope he's still trying to recapture his health, timing and rhythm this year. But he's really not a finished product at the plate either way, so will he be?

[andyb]

I am not sure that it is true that players don't typically improve defensively after age 27 (at least without some evidence). But not improving isn't the same thing is declining.

Fielders improve their technique later on to compensate for the loss of athleticism. Stott had refined fielding skills though at an early age. Good hands, low error rate. So he can't really improve that aspect as he ages. He is a very good fielding 2B. He is just unlikely to get better and maybe he has lost a tiny bit of athleticism like most players do at that age.

[Austinfan]

What scares me is they start trading prospects to try an win the next two years, and an old team gets older, 2011-2012 with less talent.
At some point, they may need to take one step back, clear out some veterans and cap room, to move forward.
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like they've figured out the farm system thang

[zambonir]

They've been pretty careful not to do that, perhaps to the detriment of this team (i.e. no Tucker or Devon Williams) and others (not getting a RHB over and over again in general). I doubt they will change course now. Rental players are still typically not that expensive and a controllable OF or reliever would not be unwelcome without costing something they can't stand to lose. The cap room and veterans are getting cleared out on their own, but they still have some tough choices to make over the next two seasons while Wheeler is still here. Maybe there's a reset season, maybe not, but they are certainly going to have to keep signing FAs, even if it's just keeping the two they have (though JT is looking more and more replaceable). No real internal option to replace Casty eventually either (though a platoon with Marsh and a new LF would cover that for his last season if Crawford is in CF).

[BostonRoss]

I worded my response poorly. I don’t believe that players improve defensively as they age, and undoubtedly they do decline. But I haven’t seen any evidence that middle infielders peak defensively at 27. The two examples I provided where that didn’t happen is not sufficient evidence of anything. I just feel that we don’t know whether Stott’s inevitable defensive decline has started, and if it hasn’t, when his defense won’t be good enough anymore to make up for what seems to be, with more evidence, mediocre offense.

[andyb]

Stott is definitely looking like a player on a trajectory where the Phillies should keep him through his free agent years and then let him move on (like with Bohm).

I guess what I was saying on defense is that Stott had the "old people" defensive skills at an early age. Young players often make a bunch of errors, especially on throws. Stott really did not at a young age. Athletic decline probably starts even earlier (like age 25 or 26) but performance improves as players improve old people skills.

Stott was probably never as good on defense as his stats a couple of years ago and he is also probably better than the stats show this year. But with his offense that is more of a 2-3 WAR player than a 4 WAR player. His offense really needs to take a step up (not just with average but with power) for him to offset any athletic decline (which would show up fielding and baserunning).

[zambonir]

Abel will have a spot so long as Aaron Nola is sidelined, and there is a chance Nola’s absence will be extended.

The Phillies paused plans for Nola to throw a live session to hitters Thursday afternoon at Rogers Centre because he felt soreness in his right side. “Very mild,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. Nola described the decision to halt his throwing program as “precautionary” and did not express much concern.

But he is going to need more time. Nola said his injured right ankle is feeling much better. But he’s also been sick; an illness has spread through the clubhouse.

Ah, the mysterious "illness." I saw another team's taxi squad mentioned the other day, we almost never hear about that still existing.

Also, they might have to do a bullpen game if Wheeler's not back by Saturday.

Mick Abel gives the Phillies some stability amid the chaos in Toronto

[Florida_Sunshine]

Veterans should clear out on their own with expiring contracts. Abel looks solid, we should be able to get a lot for Suarez. Bring up Crawford, no need to acquire an older player with a high contract as we need I expensive talent t to keep this going. Acquire a top reliever. What else do we need?

[zambonir]

The Suarez thing will be interesting. Even w/o Abel's emergence they already have Painter. TBD with Nola too.

I truly don't think Crawford makes this year's team better than Marsh/Rojas in CF, though maybe Marsh plus a RHB in LF and Kepler shipped out makes the team better with Crawford and Rojas in CF. But so does just getting an everyday LF and leaving Marsh in CF.

The bad news is if Marsh, Bohm and even Stott don't look like long-term keepers, they are also still tradeable to varying degrees as they consider moving Turner (though who knows if they really will), working in Miller and Crawford and acquiring a new corner-type bat.

[andyb]

Suarez is one of our better pitchers and the manager trusts him in postseason situations.

There is ZERO chance he'll be traded because of that. We are here to win this year and if a player projects to being a key component this year he is just not going to be traded for prospects. Or even another veteran. It is just not going to happen.

[Austinfan]

I wouldn't say zero chance.
A team needing a top 3 starting pitcher might give a substantial return, a veteran RP who can fit into the 7-9th inning rotation and a top prospect, for example.
For one thing, Ranger says the right things, but in a contract year, might not be happy about moving to the pen.

[zambonir]

I'm sure you're right. Heck, it's more likely Abel will be traded. But it's also not out of the question, especially given Suarez's history of injury. And as appealing as it is to move him to the pen, even if he doesn't mind doing it, you might just extract more value trading him. I mean, we got two prospects back for Soto to replace the two we gave up for Estevez. Ranger could easily replenish whatever the Phillies gave up for both a bat and a relief arm.

[andyb]

I wouldn't say zero chance.
A team needing a top 3 starting pitcher might give a substantial return, a veteran RP who can fit into the 7-9th inning rotation and a top prospect, for example.
For one thing, Ranger says the right things, but in a contract year, might not be happy about moving to the pen.

Absolute zero chance. We are not trading Ranger for prospects. Plus stop creating supposed tension with Ranger and his role. It is still in this team's interest to get Ranger as many important innings as possible and he'll be fine however that plays out. There was no dissension with Walker either. Just a player whose performance made him the odd man out.

Players are not bubble gum cards. We don't need to shed salary. If veterans get dealt it will be underperforming ones like with Dominguez and Soto last year. That is how DD operates.

[zambonir]

I don't think there's tension, but we still don't know if Walker's move to the pen is going to work (he could end up back in the mop-up role if not) and it's not at all clear how they plan to work in Painter, let alone Abel. At some point they really do have too many SPs and not all off them are necessarily suited to relief/tandem/six-man.

So long as there's always at least one injured starting pitcher and Painter and Abel are still not fully proven, it's unlikely, but not impossible.

[Austinfan]

Walker has two years left with $36M guaranteed, what is he going to fuss about?
Ranger is looking at his one shot at a big contract to set him financially for life, and SPs get paid better than setup RPs.

[andyb]

Of course there is tension if we have 7 starters and only 5 of them can start. But Ranger is good enough that he will have a really important role. It is not like we have ANY closer candidate we trust now for instance.

We would certainly have traded Walker if it was not for the salary (and lack of performance). We just are not going to trade anyone who is performing well, which is the only scenario where we would "get a lot" for Ranger. The extra pitcher in September will also let us go 6-man rotation or selected tandems if we want.

[flyers19rw]

In two years Wheeler is checking out. Nola is not what he used to be. The Phillies priority one right now should be to get Luzardo and Suarez signed long term. The potential rotation should be Painter, Luzardo, Sanchez, Suarez and Abel.
In the interim, using one of the future five in the BP might make sense but not using them in a manner where their arms are going to be blown out for the future. Perhaps the Phillies need to rethink how they use their BP guys. One inning every other game is not going to be possible without sapping an arm. Two or three innings every third day or so would keep a pitcher secure for returning to the rotation in the future.

[andyb]

Marchan playing today with JT day to day. No word on Zack and the baby yet, but ideally he pitches tomorrow or Saturday in Pittsburgh. They will need to send a reliever down when they activate him because Abel was activated in his spot (3-day paternity list).