Phillies News and Discussion 2025 Season

[andyb]

Lazar is probably the only reliever down in AAA that could help though maybe Seth Johnson in a month or two. Aoyagi really does not have major league stuff. Just a weird, funky delivery that might be good once around the league.

The bullpen will get better. Romano is better than he has shown and so is Kerkering. Suarez will be up soon as well and that will help in some places.

[Philsmania]

Romano is better than he has shown

Are you sure of that?

[andyb]

His ERA was 7 runs a game better last year!

[Docs]

It will be better for the team to need wins going into the playoffs rather than switching it off and coasting the final six weeks. This is a good thing. Right???

[EastFallowfield]

2025 Phils after 25 games 13-12, 5 gms back
2024 Mets after 25 games 13-12, 5.5 gms back
2023 Phils after 25 games 12-13, 5 gms back
2022 Phils after 25 games 11-14, 6 gms back

[zambonir]

There's no question this road trip (and the entire stretch since beating the Dodgers) could turn out to be the beginning of a failed season, but it's also still a very long season, and these 2025 Phillies look no worse than the 2023 or 2022 Phillies (or the 2024 Mets) for now. This is pretty much what an 88-win team always looks like, where it could just as easily be an 82-win team or a 94-win team (but I don't think any of us really believe the latter was going to happen again). This is still a great roster with four guys having possible All-Star seasons (Schwarber, Harper, Casty and Stott), Rojas coming around and Bohm showing signs of life (.861 OPS in past 7 days). The others (Turner, Marsh, Kepler) need to get better. The rotation is still a strength. The bullpen stuff just has to be endured.

I think it's fair to wonder if Dombrowski has really been that great a major league GM when you look at his moves in aggregate, especially when he inherited (or re-signed) many of the best pieces, and created some of the financial limitations himself. But the wins are the wins, and he hasn't sold the farm.

[Philsmania]

I think it's fair to wonder if Dombrowski has really been that great a major league GM when you look at his moves in aggregate, especially when he inherited (or re-signed) many of the best pieces, and created some of the financial limitations himself. But the wins are the wins, and he hasn't sold the farm.

Dombrowski's Philadelphia record has been mixed. Not giving away the farm like he did in Boston and Detroit is important. Thanks to him not doing that, we are probably not staring down the barrel of a long painful rebuild. Schwarber and, to a lesser extent, Castallenos have been good additions. Until this year, he took a Phillies bullpen which was worst in baseball in 2020 to one of the better ones in the game from 2022-24. Strahm and Hoffman were shrewd additions. Sosa was a good move and even Marsh helped for a time. He was able to finish the job that Klentak couldn't, all without a strong farm system to work with. But yes, he created the financial constraints. And, some of his big-ticket free agent signings have been questionable. Walker, until this season, was a flop and Turner may be a signing which haunts us for years to come. And, though his hands may have been financially tied to an extent this past offseason, it must be said that he failed "be resourceful and creative" test with his nontender signings.

[zambonir]

Walker wasn't really a flop. One good season, one bad season due to injury. That's just baseball. Still not a stellar signing but also not really that overpriced given the Phillies had no other options (though still ironic they weren't willing to just keep Eflin). It all still depends on the next two years.

All the 2022 moves were good. Hoffman was just great luck. But Turner, no bat in 2023, Lorenzen, Merrifield, Hays, and now, it seems, Kepler and Romano all shaky. Luzardo is looking like a great one but it's not clear if the operating philosophy of them putting starting pitching above all else is going work, when the other two components fall short.

[allentown]

but it's not clear if the operating philosophy of them putting starting pitching above all else is going work, when the other two components fall short.

DD certainly hasn't put starting pitching above all else. Whether we are talking about FA signings, draft bonuses, or international bonuses, the emphasis has clearly been placed on position players. The major league salary budget is slanted toward position players. The Phillies problem is that they are cash strapped because they haven't produced a real impact player from their own amateur scouting and development since Nola. Suarez has been plus and Bohm was plus last year, but Nola is the only clearly plus multi-season home-grown guy on the roster and he's faded this season. You can't build a consistent contender based upon FA signings. About the best you can expect is pop-up periods of several years of plus team performance with a trip or two to the WS. To have longer periods of contention, the farm must produce. It hasn't. Until it does the last few years is the best it gets. Perhaps we have the very badly needed injection of plus MLB talent working its way through the farm already, with Painter, Miller, and Crawford.

[allentown]

Until this year, he took a Phillies bullpen which was worst in baseball in 2020 to one of the better ones in the game from 2022-24. Strahm and Hoffman were shrewd additions. Sosa was a good move and even Marsh helped for a time. He was able to finish the job that Klentak couldn't, all without a strong farm system to work with. But yes, he created the financial constraints. And, some of his big-ticket free agent signings have been questionable

The owners, or at least Middleton, pushed him strongly to pay big for free agents to get to WS and, presumably, to do better than we have after the WS. Middleton, likely correctly, felt major spending was needed to avoid losing the fan base and knew that the Phillies weren't going to build a contender with what was available on the farm. He and Middleton have tried to fix the farm, but certainly hoped for more improvement than we have seen, although the farm is improved with a handful of very solid prospects, 3 of whom are knocking on the door. That and lapsing contracts may permit a rebuild on the fly. In his overall body of work with the Phillies, Marsh has been plus. Castellanos was a bad signing, although he is showing renewed life this year. Castellanos, Bohm, Marsh are all very streaky, with some bad splits. Stott and Rojas have been extremely on-and-off for the sort of hitter they should be.

As to this season: certainly better to have a team slump early rather than at end of season. A lot depends on whether Sanchez and Nola are healthy. The pen is a problem, but pens can blow hot and cold. Saving grace, not for this year, but longer term: these guys are on short-term deals. Romano likely not fully recovered.

[zambonir]

Yeah but he's all-in on starting pitching the last two years. Extended Nola and Wheeler, extended Sanchez (albeit cheaply), decided to devote trade resources to Luzardo, while also carrying Walker and knowing Painter was coming. Has not signed a major position player since Turner.

Meanwhile, there were question marks about the bats at 3B and in the entire OF. The money and assets that went to Luzardo and Kepler could have gone to a better bat. Or towards a higher-end reliever. Essentially they were willing to buy and trade their way out of the Walker mistake rather than (potentially) the Casty mistake, or the fact that JT is no longer a key offensive piece.

I'm not saying these were not reasonable decisions. But if these first few weeks of the season prove to be how the rest of it goes, they will have still been wrong. What's ironic is their faith in Casty continuing what he did last season after May has so far been more accurate than their belief in Marsh and Kepler (particularly as every day players) and Bohm (though hopefully he's turned a corner.) And they depressed Marsh's value for the team on top of that by moving him to CF. He's already where Casty was last year, even as a better defender - so far underwater WAR-wise that even if his bat comes back and he's replacement level in the field he probably can't get to 1.0, especially considering he plays less (which is what made his previous WAR years so impressive, but a lot of that came from his LF defense too).

[schillingfan]

If Romano comes in to pitch on the next home stand he will get the Turk Wendell treatment.

[allentown]

DD just couldn't afford another big $, multi-year FA position player with all those guys he already has. Any position player who fit within budget would have been as iffy as Kepler. Both Bohm and Marsh earned their lineup spots last season, in any case and too soon to give up on Stott or Rojas after a bad 2024 and they both have started the season reasonably well. Thus far, the bad part of the off-season was gambling that Romano was fully recovered and back to form. He wasn't cheap and thus far DD has lost that gamble. Over the winter, the budgetary limits suggested strongly that DD would have to hit on multiple gambles for the Phillies to be a significant playoff factor this season. Given Nola's problems and the iffy health of Sanchez's arm, I think it a good thing that DD signed Luzardo. We were lucky with rotation health in 2024. We really did need another SP, even with Painter in the wings.

[zambonir]

Romano was reasonably priced. The gamble was not just him though. It was that Kerkering could step up and Alvarado could return to form and Ruiz could continue to be the 5th best option. One out of four so far.

He didn't have to sign another multi-year free agent. They could have traded for a RHB. Or just signed one of the cheaper ones instead of Kepler. Or kept Hays, for that matter. I don't think you're wrong about Luzardo necessarily, especially because he'll replace Ranger next year and Painter is still an unknown (and supposedly when they were shopping Bohm they wanted pitching, not a bat to replace him). But if neither the bats nor the bullpen can keep them in 2-0 or 2-2 games it will all be for naught. And if Nola's worn out, and he becomes the next contractual albatross, even if he's an adequate #5.

[Austinfan]

Both DD and Thompson are at fault.

Castellanos' splits scream platoon player, hell will freeze over first.
JT is showing his age, Turner is showing why paying big money to a player who lacks plate discipline is not a good idea as they enter their 30+ year seasons.
Nola was another stupid contract, he was already struggling to maintain velocity last year, so you give him an expensive 5 year extension?
Meanwhile, they don't extend Sosa when they could have done it cheaply.

Romano is a bit of a head case, he hit 98 so the issue isn't whether his arm is back 100%, but whether he can pitch.

I think if they don't turn it around you need to fire both the GM and manager, and bring someone to strip the veterans, play the kids and spend a year or two reloading instead of trying to patch a sinking ship.

[andyb]

Turner is showing why paying big money to a player who lacks plate discipline is not a good idea as they enter their 30+ year seasons.

Turner's walk rate is his highest ever. Power lowest. Maybe Turner needs more aggressiveness. It was always his speed and slugging that made him special (kind of like Rollins another SS you always love to hate because he does not play the game the one way you want him to).

[andyb]

It looks like Seth Johnson to the bullpen is a permanent thing, not just something to tack onto Ranger's start. He is out of options after this year and behind Painter and Abel. Bullpen seems the best solution for him to make the team next year, especially if his stuff ticks up in relief. For this it is possible he could help though he seems more of a middle inning option in addition to Ross than a late inning option.

Phillies Notes: Sanchez, Suarez, Johnson

[zambonir]

Gonna be hard to beat the Mets if they also have the better pitching staff. We're spending (around) $120 on Harper, Turner, JT, Schwarbs and Casty.

The premise of the article is also that the combination of a proven small-market GM and actual money is lethal.

The Mets’ No. 1 through No. 3 hitters will collect more than $120 million this year, and they are all under 32 years old. Add Marte and Brandon Nimmo, and that’s more than $160 million for five players. Half of all MLB teams don’t spend that much on their full rosters.

What makes the Mets so formidable, though, is that while none of their five highest-paid players is a pitcher, their pitching staff is the best in the majors, with a 2.34 ERA. That underscores the kind of sound decision-making that should never go into a slump.

Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes, David Peterson, Tylor Megill and Griffin Canning have been the stingiest rotation in MLB. Mets starters have allowed just five home runs all season; every other rotation has allowed at least 10. And they’re doing it without Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas, who have been on the injured list since spring training.

The Mets are playing like baseball’s best and they’re not surprised at all

[Austinfan]

Gee, I've been recommending that for a decade.
The danger of money is it leads to sloppy decision making, b/c you can buy your way out of mistakes for a while.
I'd be looking to hire executives from successful small market teams who know how to maximize talent.
Then you use your money to lock up a few top players in their prime (not sign 30+ year old FAs).

[zambonir]

It's not like the Phillies didn't try it. Lavine turned down the job and Piccolo wasn't hired the previous time, but Klentak was essentially a small-market/analytics hire even if he was in Anaheim by then.

They also could have hired Stearns himself had they not waited so long in 2015.

I think they got it a lot righter than they might have with the way Fuld and Mattingly have worked out under Dombrowski, and it's not like the strategy of filling around the edges cheaply and cleverly is new either. Sometimes you just don't get it right. Gillick's teams did.