Phillies News and Discussion 2025 (Part 2)

[allentown]

If you are the bye team in a short series, especially one that doesn't go the distance, you shouldn't really have to go to your sixth or seventh relievers, though the Phillies did in 2023 (Kerkering and Soto) due to the quick hook on Ranger. Eventually both of them weren't used in leverage. Lorenzen was the mop-up guy.

The real question is how many relievers do the Phillies have who can pitch as well as our #4,and #5 starting pitchers?

[Austinfan]

Buehler actually has some success out of the pen in the post-season.
But none of the three get a boost coming out of the pen, so you want them to start innings, not come in with men on base.
So they should only see action in tandem starts or if a starter gets shelled.

[zambonir]

Which goes back to the idea that the 8th reliever really doesn't have to be that good. Allard last year and he didn't even pitch. Lorenzen in 2023 and not one meaningful pitch. I'm not really arguing for what I think should happen, just what appears to be happening. My actual opinon is still that it barely matters. I'm all for it being Lazar instead of Walker but not sure he's anything special (nor Trevino), and his outings in September have all been in either losses or games the Phillies led big. It seems they intend to carry Nola in which case he's your emergency leverage extras guy.

The real question is how many relievers do the Phillies have who can pitch as well as our #4,and #5 starting pitchers?

Well yeah. I don't think Trivino or Lazar are better pitchers than Nola, Buehler or Walker. But you're making a decision based on what role they can best handle and what they are most needed for. Trivino has experience. Lazar has some stuff. But it seems like Thomson is trusting the brand name vets. We'll find out soon enough I guess.

[andyb]

Buehler actually has some success out of the pen in the post-season.

That was the Buehler who sat 96-98 though. This is a different guy.

[andyb]

Which goes back to the idea that the 8th reliever really doesn't have to be that good. Allard last year and he didn't even pitch.

Actually no it doesn't. Roster decisions should still be made based upon who is the better pitcher. And given the general suckiness (tm) of the middle and back of the bullpen of late I think having more options could be useful.

Your logic would dictate a roster of like 23 or 23 total players since we rarely use a bench in the playoffs anyway. Why have a backup catcher if JT never rests!

[zambonir]

It's not my logic, it's this manager's history. Was Allard better than Lazar last year? Wasn't Tyler Phillips a little less sucky than Allard, even? They were both guys who pretty much only got outs by accident. Obviously Walker was so bad last year as to not be considered, but he's better than that this year. Based on your logic I would say the manager and front office simply disagrees with you about who the best pitchers are (if in fact they take both of the Walkers).

I feel like if any of these extra starters get used for anything other than mop-up it is going to be scripted. A specific pocket where the starter isn't going to get a third time. Or the best relievers come in early but then you wind up having to use the lesser guys if you can't close it out. If Alonso or Ohtani are up I don't want to see any of 'em, starters or relievers. Nola is still the best pitcher of the three (and looks good right now) but will they really use him?

[zambonir]

In an unusual season for the Phillies’ Aaron Nola, another twist could be coming

So could this atypical year for Nola culminate in him heading to the bullpen for the playoffs, for the first time in his career?

“Sure,” Thomson said. “We’d certainly give him enough time if that were the case, to make sure he’s ready.”

Also.

Rojas still sore.

> The members of the Phillies “stay-hot camp” will report to Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday, Thomson announced. The camp includes pitchers Nolan Hoffman, Alan Rangel, and Seth Johnson; catcher Caleb Ricketts; infielders Rafael Lantigua and Donovan Walton; and outfielder Johan Rojas. The six players will stay ready as reserves in case of injuries during the postseason.

[andyb]

It's not my logic, it's this manager's history.

It is totally your logic. You are saying if we have not used the back end of the bullpen in the past that it does not matter who we put there. And the manager SHOULD be criticized if he does not select the best players for his roster.

Frankly the bullpen seems a much larger weakness this year than in the past. These decisions might actually matter.

[zambonir]

But I'm just not seeing any convincing argument that Trivino and Lazar are better players than Walker or Buehler. They're all fungible, the last guys in any bullpen always are.

Anyway, I'm starting to think Nola is actually going to be the #6 reliever. The Game 4 NLDS starter (Sanchez) will have four days rest before Game 2 of NLCS. Game 1 would either be Luzardo or Suarez (if no NLDS Game 5). Nola could pitch in relief in the first series and still take Game 3 or 4.

That would still mean one of Buehler or Walker for either the mop-up role or extra innings emergency role. Or one of Lazar/Trivino.

The bullpen is weak because Kerkering and Robertson and even Duran all have questions, and we saw Strahm melt down last year. But there is nothing the choice of Lazar vs. Buehler or Trivino vs. Walker can do to address that. If anything Buehler is the best insurance there based on how he pitched in the playoffs last year. I would let him face Ohtani before Lazar, maybe even before Mayza.

[phillychuck]

Saturday morning, interesting odds for our NL playoff spots. Figuring each game at 50% won-lost, the Mets have to beat the Reds to get the wild card. If you do a tree diagram it turns out the Mets are 5/16 or 31.25% to get into the playoffs. I believe this is the first time their numerical odds have fallen below 50/50 since early in the year.

The Phils are 1/16 to get home field throughout using this model.

Of course the games aren’t 50/50, but you can’t easily assign probabilities.

Fangraphs has the Mets somewhat higher, at 44.9% based on projections.

Using the gambling odds for the Phils and Brewers games today and tomorrow, the Phils are 60% to win each game, and the Brewers are 56%...so the odds of all four events happening are 0.60*0.60*0.44*0.44 = roughly 7%.

So you’re saying there’s a chance!!??

[zambonir]

Crudely, the Mets have two more winnable games. The Marlins aren't a door mat anymore but they're not the Brewers. In reality, of course, anything could happen, and has been.

It's hard to believe the Phillies looked the way they did and lost the games they did in Queens last month. 21-8 since then. Six straight series wins before Arizona.

Catching the Brewers would also mean not having to play the Mets (or Dodgers) before NLCS, but I'm not certain the Cubs or Padres would actually be easier. Finishing second and hoping the Brewers get knocked out also still a good path.

As a fan part of me wants to see the Mets, and get revenge. But another part of me would be generally worried about losing one of the first two games and then struggling there again. Hard to imagine them actually beating the Dodgers, but we know it happens.

[andyb]

Phillies will activate Trea Turner for Game 162. He’ll play a few innings at shortstop Sunday. Phillies medical staff has deemed him healthy, Rob Thomson said.

— Matt Gelb ( @mattgelb.bsky.social ) September 27, 2025 at 8:59 PM

[zambonir]

Lazar was optioned to FCL for Turner so we know he's not pitching for 15 days (barring injury). Hadn't thought about that (that if they'd optioned Kemp he would have been out, since the regular season rule would still be in effect). Of course they could have just optioned Stubbs.

[andyb]

And Lazar would have probably needed a pitching injury during the series to make the roster anyway. They will still be able to do that if they have to.

[zambonir]

I thought you liked him over Taijuan for the last spot.

[julio]

Harrison Bader finished the 2025 regular season with 501 plate appearances. This means that he has increased the buyout on his mutual option to $3 million. Since he's presumably looking for a multi-year offer, he's likely to collect this.

[bkox]

Top 20 stats:

BA: Turner wins NL Batting Crown. Alex Bohm finishes 9th in NL and 18th in MLB. (Lowest ever BA for a NL Batting Crown in MLB History)

OBP: Schwarber 9th in NL, Harper 12th, Turner 15th

SLG: Schwarber 2nd in NL, Harper 10th

OPS: Schwarber 2nd in NL, Harper 10th, Turner 15th

HR Schwarber 1st in NR in HRs. Harper 16th.

RBIs: Schwarber 1st in MLB.

SBs: Turner 4th in NL, Stott 15th

Runs Scored: Schwarber 4th in NL, Turner 12th

Hits: Turner 2nd in NL (2 behind Arraez)

Doubles: Harper 13th in NL, Turner 17th

Triples: Turner 4th in NL

Total Bases: Schwarber 2nd in NL, Turner 18th

Walks: Schwarber 3rd, Harper 16th

Pitching

ERA: Sanchez 3rd in NL, Luzaardo 11th. (Wheeler would be 5th and Ranger 7th if they had enough innings to qualify)

Wins: Luzardo 2nd in NL, Sanchez 7th, Suarez 13th,

Quality Starts. Sanchez 1st, Luzardo 5th, Suarez 7th, Wheeler 10th

Saves: Duran 12th in the NL 5th in MLB. Romano (yes really) 20th in NL

IP Sanchez 2nd Luzardo 5th

Ks: Luzardo 2nd. Sanchez 5th Wheeler 9th, Suarez 18th

WHIP: Sanchez 5th, Luzardo 10th

Looking at this and I think I underestimated just how good Luzardo was this year

And how many wins would the Phillies have had if Wheeler and Ranger were healthy all year

[Philsmania]

Turner is the Phillies first batting champ since Rich Ashburn

And how many wins would Sanchez have if the Phillies scored more runs in his starts and the bullpen didn't blow so many leads he left (all anecdotal, I admit)?

Duran 12th in NL in saves despite being in the league only 1/3 of the season

[zambonir]

And how many wins would Sanchez have if the Phillies scored more runs in his starts and the bullpen didn't blow so many leads he left (all anecdotal, I admit)?

He would have 27 wins

[Philsmania]

And how many wins would Sanchez have if the Phillies scored more runs in his starts and the bullpen didn't blow so many leads he left (all anecdotal, I admit)?

He would have 27 wins

I counted 12 games in which the Phillies either could only muster 3 runs or less for him (hardluck losses for him in some cases, Phillies score late to win or win/lose in extras later) or he left with a lead but the bullpen blew that lead.

3/31 vs, COL--bullpen blew lead
4/6 vs, LA--bullpen blew lead
4/22 vs. Mets--hardluck 2-1 loss
5/12 vs, Cards--hardluck 3-2 loss
5/19 vs. COL--Phillies score only one for him, score runs late after he is out and win
5/29 vs. Braves--bullpen blew lead
7/2 vs. Giants--3-1 hardluck loss
8/19 vs Mariners--bullpen blew lead
8/30 vs. Braves--Phillies score only one run for him, win in extras
9/16 vs. LA--bullpen blows lead
9/23 vs MIA--bullpen blows lead
9/28 vs. Twins--Phillies manage only one run for him, win in extras

Now, it's probably unrealistic to expect that the he would have gotten the win in all of those games but if he got the win in seven of them, he's a twenty game winner. Common denominator seems to be the Phillies often not scoring a lot of runs for him when he is in the game. I remember the thing bedeviling Nola for a few years and Hamels before him.