Phillies Magic Number to Clinch at least the final Wild Card

[flyers19rw]

Or a Brewers loss to the Diamondbacks. As we’ve seen, the snakes are not pushovers.

[el-pietro]

Its been a frustrating weekend at times. I was sure they had blown it yesterday. I can imagine what Brewers fans are feeling right now because losing 3 of 4 at home to Miami is terrible.

[Patchmk88]

They actually play the Dbacks.

[zambonir]

Yeah I'd be a lot happier if they were playing the Cubs even if the Cubs stunk (rivalry and all). But things look pretty solid now regardless.

[zambonir]

you literally can imagine it because you've experienced it repeatedly!

[el-pietro]

I've only followed the Phillies since 2006 and I was spoiled in those early years. I feel like the last 11 years have really given me a bit of an understanding for what following this team has been like for most of the last 150 years.

[zambonir]

ha, yeah but I just meant 2018-2021, even. Feels like this is the first year the Marlins didn't routinely hurt us.

[el-pietro]

I wasn't even thinking of their record against the Marlins! I was focusing on the September collapses over the last 4 years straight.
The Marlins voodoo seems to have transferred to the Cubs this year.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

I was sure they had blown it yesterday.

Phillies showed a lot of gumption yesterday, coming back from a thrashing in game #1 to win the nightcap with our #4 or #5 pitcher on the mound. Of course it didn’t hurt that the Nats were starting a pitcher who was recently claimed off waivers. Still, the way our offense had been sputtering, it was good to see the bats come through last night, and for that to carry over to today’s game.

[Philsmania]

Tomorrow just might be the biggest game of Nola's career.

[zambonir]

I suppose by definition it is. Until the next one! I mean, it's technically not a must-win (let alone an elimination game) but it's a big one, against as good a team as they've played all year.

[EDmuch]

Would be nice to have the “good” Nola show up & clinch the playoff birth rather than “bad” Aaron who will give up 5 runs in the fourth inning.

[zambonir]

We have all seen this happen of course, but the dude has a 5.5 WAR, .983 WHIP and 2.66 FIP (against a 3.36 ERA). He's a poster boy for this poor Phillies defense and having a legit Cy Young candidate season.

I won't say he's better than Wheeler but Wheeler's FIP matches his ERA and Nola's been more durable (which is basically the difference in their BBRef WAR - and yet, the gap in Fangraphs is much larger, presumably due to FIP). I presume Wheeler got better run support and better defense.

[mdougherty12]

2022 Team W-L record by starting pitcher:

Nola - 14-17
Gibson - 16-15
Suarez - 17-11
Wheeler - 13-12
Falter - 13-6
Eflin - 9-10
Syndergaard - 7-3
Sanchez - 2-1
Nelson - 0-2
Bellatti - 0-1

Some interesting notes:

The Phils apparently play better with a lefty starter for magical reasons.

Only 10 starters were used for the season (and that includes a couple of openers).

The Phils managed to lose 5 games where Aaron Nola threw at least 7 innings while giving up 2 or fewer runs - 2 of these were due to bullpen meltdowns (including the famous May loss to the Mets where the Phils blew a 6-run lead in the 9th inning); the other 3 were games where the offense didn't show up (all 1-0 losses).

[zambonir]

The Phils managed to lose 5 games where Aaron Nola threw at least 7 innings while giving up 2 or fewer runs - 2 of these were due to bullpen meltdowns (including the famous May loss to the Mets where the Phils blew a 6-run lead in the 9th inning); the other 3 were games where the offense didn't show up (all 1-0 losses).

Wow.

Nola did get rocked in Arizona at the end of August, but in his five September starts he has allowed 1, 0, 4, 0 and 4 runs (though the first shutout was only two innings, another rain delay). He has allowed 4-5 runs a fair number of times over the season, and earned too, but as we know this team actually doesn't make many errors - and yet is poor defensively in most other ways.

I get it, pitchers get defined by big games and while he doesn't have to pitch a shutout it's not the time to have a four-run inning either. But the last two times that has happened (to him and Gibson early on) the defense definitely played its role too. So I'd be more concerned about that tomorrow.

[Aquapong]

The Brewers start a half hour before us, so maybe we’ll know before our game actually ends.

[andyb]

Would definitely love to close it out tonight and get the key pitchers rested. A Plassmeyer start on Wednesday would be perfect.

[Philsmania]

The Phils managed to lose 5 games where Aaron Nola threw at least 7 innings while giving up 2 or fewer runs - 2 of these were due to bullpen meltdowns (including the famous May loss to the Mets where the Phils blew a 6-run lead in the 9th inning); the other 3 were games where the offense didn't show up (all 1-0 losses).

Wow.

Nola did get rocked in Arizona at the end of August, but in his five September starts he has allowed 1, 0, 4, 0 and 4 runs (though the first shutout was only two innings, another rain delay). He has allowed 4-5 runs a fair number of times over the season, and earned too, but as we know this team actually doesn't make many errors - and yet is poor defensively in most other ways.

I get it, pitchers get defined by big games and while he doesn't have to pitch a shutout it's not the time to have a four-run inning either. But the last two times that has happened (to him and Gibson early on) the defense definitely played its role too. So I'd be more concerned about that tomorrow.

Nola has been dogged by weak Septembers and coming up small in big stretch drive games when the Phillies need him real bad. It looked like he had shaken it this season but then came last Wednesday's fifth inning. But, he did have a 1-2-3 inning right after that. If he can start strongly, the Phillies can some runs off of McCullers who hopefully will be in "get some work in" mode, that might help Nola relax and believe that Tuesday's bad inning--which maybe was really one bad at-bat and pitch to Marrero--was just a blip. If that pitch was better located and Marrero swung and missed at it, Nola would also be in "get some work in" mode today.

[allentown]

Nola has been dogged by weak Septembers and coming up small in big stretch drive games when the Phillies need him real bad.

Nola has been near the top in IP each of the past 5 seasons. That takes a toll on him. Wheeler led the league in IP last season. Phillies management needs to decide whether they want max IP out of their star starting pitchers or for them to be fresh in critical situations and September. A look at Nola's bad games suggests that the Phillies should take him out of games after 7 IP. One example: Phillies up 4-0 after 7 innings on Aug 25. Nola pitches 9. Next game in AZ: 8 R in 4 IP. Prior to that on Aug 13 he pitched 8 innings against NY he gave up the games only run in first inning and pitched an 8 inning complete game, next game gives up 5 runs in 5 IP against NY. Prior to that on July 17 Nola pitches 8.1 shutout innings and the Phillies were up 4-0 at the time, next game 5 runs in 6 IP.

It's not Nola. It's that the Phillies don't trust their bullpen and their whole pitching strategy is built around the assumption that Wheeler and Nola can throw around 200 innings per year. Wheeler injury wrecked that this year, so the manager leaned even more heavily on trying to get complete games from Nola, even games with 4 run leads. That's not on Nola. At this point in his career, I think he is more a 175 IP guy than 200.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Happy Al Oliver day.