Phillies Magic Number to Clinch at least the final Wild Card

zambonir 2022-09-25 13:49:44 UTC #41

Obviously no tiebreakers with half-game leads but Phillies do hold it on San Diego too. They make up the half-game in the win column (hopefully) in DC.

The suspense/stumbling block at this point remains how crucial the games in Houston might be, IMO. I'm gonna be pessimisitic and assume the magic number doesn't change today. Then, let's say...

Phils go 5-2 in Chicago and DC, Brewers go 4-2 against STL and MIA. That would leave the Phillies needing just 1 win and 1 Brewers loss in the last series but still leaves our top starters in play.

But if Phils go 4-3 and Brewers go 5-1 we're looking at tight last weekend.

A win today or a surprise Reds win would help obviously!

Aquapong 2022-09-25 20:30:25 UTC #42

Brewers lose!

Philsmania 2022-09-26 14:48:29 UTC #43

Uh oh, it looks like Hurricane Ian may end up wrecking havoc on the schedule next weekend in the Mid-Atlantic.

andyb 2022-09-26 15:27:18 UTC #44

Long term forecast here in DC is for rain Saturday and Sunday. Looks more like light rain much of the day now.

They should probably move the DH to Friday.

Philsmania 2022-09-26 15:38:18 UTC #45

Usually, when tropical cyclones come ashore on the Gulf Coast, they mostly wring themselves out down south out and weaken very significantly by the time they reach the Northeast. The exception was Ida last year which combined with a strong frontal system further up north which re-energized and re-loaded it.

andyb 2022-09-26 16:02:17 UTC #46

Ian seems projected to hit the middle of the panhandle and then go through the Southeast inland by a couple of hundred miles. That should take the power out of the storm, but it is still a large system with lots of moisture that could be pretty slow-moving since it loses power by not being on the coast.

That is just a pattern for on and off rain that could last more than 24 hours. I was thinking of going Saturday. Going to be a game day decision for me.

Philsmania 2022-09-26 16:35:42 UTC #47

There's some speculation now that it may make a northeast turn in the Gulf and be The Big One that the Tampa Bay area has avoided for the last 100 years. Lookout, Clearwater. If it takes that dramatic a turn, it may cross Florida and go back out to sea.

Sabin 2022-09-26 16:49:26 UTC #48

Yeah, I thought about that after I'd started, but given the early hour I figured I'd be lucky to field the basics without booting somebody's record on the way to first.

Aquapong 2022-09-28 02:55:38 UTC #49

zambonir 2022-09-28 03:49:17 UTC #50

The feeling when you're not that good but the team chasing you isn't either

David_Criss 2022-09-28 14:15:28 UTC #51

Seems like neither the Brewers or Phillies want that final WC spot.

kmc1019 2022-09-28 15:11:26 UTC #52

Good rundown on mlb.com of all playoff aspects. Also - after the abysmal performance last night and over the last 10 games - comforting to see the Phillies logo in the actual playoff bracket .

zambonir 2022-09-28 18:01:59 UTC #53

yeah, it's certainly possible they screw this up/Nats play spoilers. But even if they only go 3-3 over this next stretch (another loss to the Cubs, a split in DC) the Brewers are probably going to lose at least a couple of games, in which case we go to Houston with a magic number of 2. But it could easily go better than that. Of course go 2-4 or 1-5 and it's a different story.

Sabin 2022-09-28 21:32:06 UTC #54

They may, but one problem with the comparative losses last night is the Brewers are in the series of their home stretch in which they were expected to drop a game or two (Cardinals), before concluding with tilts against the Marlins and Diamondbacks. The Phillies still have Houston on the horizon to close out their season.

Of course, one could perhaps find solace in the possibility that Houston will have eased off the gas having locked up their playoff spot (albeit a bye), and the fact that Milwaukee is 1-4 against Arizona this month.

However it ends, I would like to see the Phils playing better baseball if they were to end their playoff drought. This year's club appears to be flapping in the wind at this point. Still time to build some momentum.

andyb 2022-09-28 21:41:43 UTC #55

Falter vs Verlander is the starting matchup lined up for the last day of the season currently. Would Verlander actually pitch that day? Guessing both the Phillies and Astros would prefer that game was meaningless.

zambonir 2022-09-28 21:49:57 UTC #56

Yeah it's impossible to use logic this time of year anyway. There's always spoilers. Houston could not even try and still beat us with their eighth starter, or we could sweep them while dropping a bunch of games in DC. And the Astros are still gonna have to play some guys too, or they'd have too much time off. It also feels like they sometimes have trouble completing a sweep and rarely take both games of a doubleheader so the DC series is a snakepit.

But I'm pretty sure the Phillies are going to win 3 or 4 games and the Brewers are gonna lose 2 or 3 games. And after that we'll probably lose to the Cardinals. But I'd still like to find out. I think momentum is probably a myth as well. (They had a lot of that in 2007, though if memory serves so did the other guy).

Sabin 2022-09-28 22:38:10 UTC #57

Well, I don't think it's impossible; I mean, why the talk of how to play the starters during the Houston series if the wild card were in hand? There are still statistics to be analyzed. I just think this time of year everything is pored over as games become increasingly important.

Yeah, I think I'd disagree with that. I mean, momentum is what it is; it can of course be stopped (or, for that matter started). But it generally requires more effort to do so. Much of a lot of sports at the highest level can be mental. I believe there are several studies that have shown higher confidence levels correlating with increased athletic performance.

Again, it doesn't mean the ride doesn't come to an end (the Cardinals were riding a 17+ game winning streak toward the end of last season), I just think even the players would enjoy entering a playoff atmosphere feeling they had some wind at their backs.

zambonir 2022-09-28 23:52:05 UTC #58

Well, as they say, momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher. Or maybe in the Phillies' case (at least last night), having enough available good relievers. But I'm not sure that if, for instance, Nola is lights-out tonight and Harper and Castellanos begin a big offensive burst, that it won't just grind to a halt against St. Louis, as so many good offensive players have in October (the Killer Bs, Bonds' Giants for a long time). Whereas is if they don't get untracked we'll be like, "yeah, the bats never got going in September, makes sense." But then there's also a third scenario....

Sabin 2022-09-29 04:57:29 UTC #59

To me it's not about getting past St. Louis. My view on the team's playoff shelf life this year - should they even reach them - has largely aligned with yours, with the wild card being where I saw the road most likely coming to an end. My point is simply that I think the players would enjoy breaking the playoff barrier more by not being the better loser down the stretch, and it would likely give them (and us) some pep heading into the WC round, even if odds are it being the only series they make.

zambonir 2022-09-29 12:42:20 UTC #60

Well, I think on August 25th I thought they could make it to the NLDS, not that it was going to be easy (especially since they were going to play the Braves or Mets). They were 70-55, and 3.5 games (with tiebreaker) up on San Diego (5 with tiebreaker on Milwaukee). That was the day Wheeler went on the IL (four days after Seranthony) and the day before Harper returned to the line-up. They are 13-16 since then and it appears that is the caliber of baseball they are going to continue to play - if we're lucky. At this point they don't need to put up a winning record for momentum, just survival (and I certainly didn't even think that four days ago).