Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[zambonir]

Funny that Rucker lost his 40-man spot to Neris.

[Lucky_Beagle]

Phillies gain the ability to send Rucker down to the minors in the exchange. I imagine that was a very important part of the deal for the Phillies.

[Austinfan]

And that it only cost "cash considerations."

[andyb]

Phillies gain the ability to send Rucker down to the minors in the exchange. I imagine that was a very important part of the deal for the Phillies.

Bellatti and Rucker both would almost certainly not make the team out of Spring Training so this is the reality of just keeping the 14th or 15th man on the pitching staff ready in the minors for when they are needed. They were not going to keep all of Bellatti, Brogdon, and Covey so they decided to choose at least one spot now. Brogdon and Covey just got an improved chance of making the team of course pending other moves.

[andyb]

Good summary of the pitchers coming to spring training here. One nice note - Ranger Suarez is going to be early to camp for the first time in years. He has had more than his share of visa and maybe Covid issues in recent years.

Phillies spring training preview: Thoughts on every pitcher headed to camp

[Austinfan]

Sounds like they've already set the pitching staff going into spring training, with Lehigh destined to host a bunch of veteran lottery tickets and young arms. Nelson and Brogdon are the best bets to crack the bullpen in ST.

Abel is the wild card, he has the stuff, just has to refine it and he could be the big ticket insurance policy against a starter going down.

Phillips is the longshot one to watch in the Lehigh rotation, 2nd year since TJ.

Synder, Marte, Mercado, Moore are the big arms with baggage.

[zambonir]

I'm sure Nelson will be on a starter's schedule and in AAA. Even if they did want him to relieve and he has a lights-out spring training he probably loses to Covey or Brogdon just because he has an option. Brogdon either makes the team or gets traded (with or without a DFA, I don't imagine he'd go unclaimed).

They really do have more than enough relief arms; last year's bullpen was actually so good that we forget what a normal 6th or 7th guy looks like (and also that relievers having a few bad playoff games is not the same thing as relievers having a bad season). Even more true if the 7th pitcher is going to be the churn spot or if Covey gets some higher (modest) leverage appearances rather than just mop-up.

[andyb]

Fangraphs playoff odds project the Phillies for 85.5 wins and a 59.5% chance of making playoffs.

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Six Takeaways From Our 2024 Playoff Odds Release

[zambonir]

All those projections seem conservative except the Braves (at 98).

We shall see, if they are correct you can argue Dombrowski needed to do more... or that there was no point in doing more. I'd certainly take the over on the Phillies if that was the betting line (but I bet - haha - that's closer to 88 or 89).

[andyb]

It is really hard to see this team competing with the Braves in the regular season. That might require something like Painter and Abel both being good which is more a 2025/2026 thing. The offense really is not going to get much better since we don't have much in the way of young players coming in the next 2 seasons. The hope on offense really is that we don't see regression from the medium-old players (Harper, Realmuto, Schwarber, Castellanos, Turner).

[Austinfan]

Thing is, Phillies were on a 100 win pace from June forward, a lot of that was getting Suarez and Sanchez in the rotation, then Harper back, then Turner out of his funk and finally Rojas solidifying the OF defense.

This year they should start with that team in April.
There will be the inevitable regression by a player or two, an injury to a pitcher or two - question is whether they have the depth at AAA ball to provide reinforcements in mid-season.

[zambonir]

Well, the team's public position is that they kept pace with the Braves from June 2 until the end of the season (to say nothing of the playoffs). And you can double down on that further given Turner didn't really emerge until after the halfway point and Sanchez and Rojas weren't even playing until then. It's not an outlandish notion, just a little rose-colored.

What's missing - and was last year as well - is depth. If/when an injury happens the reinforcements, while never ideal in such situations, are slim. You put Allard in the rotation or start playing Jake Cave or Kody Clemens or even Sosa or Pache every day and that slows you down.

Braves may not play at such an insane pace this year either.

[andyb]

It is more that significant improvements from the core roster are unlikely since we have more players past their 27-year-old prime than before that. The small improvements we might get from Sanchez and Rojas (and Stott and Bohm) are likely smaller than the regression we'll see from the older players.

Painter and Abel are really the only way to significantly improve the base roster. This does not mean that we are not still a dangerous playoff team especially if Bryce is healthy. The odds are just that we'll have 2-3 players improve balanced by 5 or 6 regressing.

[Lucky_Beagle]

The Phillies are set to claim right-hander Max Castillo off waivers from the Red Sox, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Outfielder Simon Muzziotti will be designated for assignment in order to clear space on the 40-man roster.

[Squire]

Would be nice to get something off 40 Man for Muzzioti in trade during the DFA period

[andyb]

Castillo is another pitcher with 1 remaining option. More rotation depth than bullpen arm. Clearly they want to fill out our 40-man roster depth with a couple players that can be optioned.

Muzziotti really stopped getting better this year. I think some of that was masked by the ridiculous AAA offensive numbers last year (like with Cave). Clearly the Phillies like Cave over Muzziotti though I imagine Muzziotti has a shot at getting through waivers. Bellatti had the service time to declare free agency and Muzziotti likely does not.

He was the "new guy" in Boston last month:

Meet The New Guy: Max Castillo

[zambonir]

I think they would have traded Muzziotti before now (including for Castillo!) if he had any real value though I suppose they also didn't need to before Rule 5, for instance.

[andyb]

Muzziotti had only a .652 OPS in Venezuela this winter in 170 plate appearances. It just seems he has stopped getting better. His defense in CF is only marginal and he does not have the offense for the corners. Cave has similar defense and a little more power on offense. Still a strong chance we sign an outfielder I imagine. They just need Bellinger to sign somewhere so the dominos start to fall on the secondary choices.

[zambonir]

Yeah if he was really a CF they could have moved him last deadline and if he was really a LF bat they could have at least given him one call-up.

[zambonir]

With that body he better flexible!