Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[allentown]

Yes, but the Phillies shouldn't go along with it.

[zambonir]

I reckon the ownership stake is what he'll ultimately end up with.

I have no problem with it. The wasted money on the back end is still irrelevant so long as Middleton continues to spend - and make - money and is able to pay for reinforcements or replacements once he's cooked. It's also possible he'll either defy expectations or fall so short of them that he retires.

He should have just asked for an opt-out in the first place. But that would be costing the Phillies even more now. Bottom line, he is the Phillies superstar, the face of the team, and the guy who more people will come here to play with over the next few years. Practically priceless.

And while I don't think it will come to it, what's not priceless is the possibility of making him and Boras unhappy.

If Middleton & the Bucks don't mind, why should we? Clearly Middleton is also invested in being That Owner, the one who treats his players better than anyone and pays his players better than anyone. The owners in NY are never going to actually be that because one team tells you how to dress and look and the other is run by a blowhard.

[Aquapong]

The Phils are worth $2.575 billion according to Wikipedia, with $358 Million in 2022 revenue. Only ~$90 million in profits I would guessimate. Would a 5% share of ownership matter a whole lot? $4.5 million/year in essentially passive income (when things are going well)? That’s a better return than the stock market I guess.

[andyb]

The Phillies might be worth $5 billion by the time Bryce retires however.

[Aquapong]

On the other hand it could be a dangerous precedent to set. Every halfway decent free agent is going to start demanding ownership shares. For the most part, baseball owners are businessmen with an awareness of protecting the brand. Players make dumb comments, gestures, etc. Now they have an effect on the brand in monetary terms.

Say nothing of how it blurs the lines between the player’s union, the CBA, etc.

I don’t worry about Harper so much, but the wrong player gaining ownership shares could have some repercussions to the franchise.

[andyb]

One more big arm on a minor league contract.

12/6/23 : Phillies sign RHP Nick Snyder to minor league contract

[bkox]

Actually there is a rule against active players owning part of an MLB team. But the commish can waive it

Rule 20(e). No manager or player on a Club shall, directly or indirectly, own stock or any other proprietary interest or have any financial interest in the Club by which the manager or player is employed except under an agreement approved by the Commissioner,

[allentown]

I think it a dangerous enough precedent for a player to sign a very long, very rich contract and then get an extension before he's even completed half of the contract years and when everyone in the world knows he'll be all but worthless at the conclusion of the current deal, probably a liability apart from the big $. The Schwarber and Castellanos deals are both done by 2026 season. If Harper really, really wants a contract revision, I'd offer him an out clause after 2026, but he has to offer something in return, such as the right to trade him during 2027 and that off season.

I'm glad of the rule bkox mentions. How do you value for lux tax purposes a 5% interest in the team. If he were given a right to 5% of team, due the day his present contract ends, that is worth a very large and very uncertain $. If the team is still worth today's about $2.5 billion, that's $125 million. If we take the estimated $5 billion future value, that's $250 million. He has 8 years remaining on his contract, making the difference between those values worth an AAV of almost $16 million per season.

Harper has averaged 3.7 rWAR in his first 5 years with us. What do we expect in his last 5? Don't let Boras hustle us.

[phillychuck]

Does anyone sense a brutal Harper/Phillies divorce on the long-term radar, similar to Harden/Sixers? This discussion is giving me those vibes.

[julio]

Actually there is a rule against active players owning part of an MLB team. But the commish can waive it

Rule 20(e). No manager or player on a Club shall, directly or indirectly, own stock or any other proprietary interest or have any financial interest in the Club by which the manager or player is employed except under an agreement approved by the Commissioner,

Wow! Somebody (other than myself!) has quoted from the MLB Rules. Bravo!

[zambonir]

Yeah I assumed it was against the rules. But if they put some deferrals into the new deal that could easily be converted into ownership when he retires. By then Pat Gillick's 1% might be available (I believe it won't go to his heirs but I could be wrong, Monty's heirs got to keep his).

Also forgot the Bucks sold or will soon have sold 1/3 of their share to Middleman (not to be confused with Middleton).

This would definitely have Harden or Schilling/Rolen vibes if it got tense. I just don't think it will. It's an extremely "we're doing each other favors" dynamic. Harper made a commitment to the Phillies by not taking opt-outs and left money on the table and now he wants them to extend that commitment and get some of that money. Which he has already earned, really, in terms of ticket sales and merch and branding and oh yeah, a pennant - regardless of what WAR he puts up a few years from now. With the willingness to move to 1B being another thing he did for the team (even if it should ultimately benefit him too).

[zambonir]

In a text message, Phillies owner John Middleton said he doesn’t want Harper to play for another team.

“My intention is for Bryce to never wear another jersey but ours,” Middleton wrote, reiterating what he told USA Today at the owners’ meetings last month, “and when he retires, for him to continue to work with us as Mike Schmidt has.”

At the moment, Harper has the 24th-highest average annual salary in baseball at $25.384 million. That mark will be eclipsed this winter by several free agents, including Shohei Ohtani and possibly Cody Bellinger.

Bryce Harper is committed to Philly. How much will it cost the Phillies to keep...

[Aquapong]

Personally, I’d stick to contract he already has. Every contract has risk to the player in terms of unrealized earning potential and risk to the team in injury/underperformance. They agreed on a price/term and it’s signed. Chances are he Pujols’ his way through the last year or two as it is.

[DurhamBull]

Pujols put up an .895 OPS in his final season. I'd take that from Harper in his final season, even if it is as a platoon player.

[allentown]

Yes, happily take that as a platoon DH in his final year of contract. At age 38, that is far from a sure thing. Going to age 40? Big risk! And then, there is the problem: "He's Bryce Harper -- he needs/deserves to be in the lineup as much as he wants."

And. Pujols had a .869 OPS at age 32 and that .895 OPS at age 42 .... the 9 years in between OPS from .622 to .790. For his whole 10 years at LA, an OPS of .759 with an OPS+ of 108 and a total of 12.8 bWAR for $208 million, so not a good deal.

[Purduke]

Pujols put up an .895 OPS in his final season. I'd take that from Harper in his final season, even if it is as a platoon player.

Not if it meant taking Pujols' prior five years OPS to get his final year . His 2017 to 2021 year OPS' were .672, .700, .734 .665 and .717.

His final year OPS was sort of the retirement equivilant of a "contract year."

[bkox]

His final year OPS was sort of the retirement equivilant of a "contract year."

and the conspiracy theorists think they were juicing his baseballs to get him to 700 HR

[zambonir]

Joey Votto, also terrible for the last two years.

The fear that they will play Harper no matter what 10 years from now is legit, but that problem can't really be solved now, because there's no way he's not getting an extension sometime in the next 1-3 years, rather than later when his value might decline. And he's still earned it, by being - crazy as it seems to say - underpaid for the last few years. If he's actually unplayable in 10 years that's a problem for some other front office and manager to deal with, but it still doesn't mean he doesn't deserve it now. If the team can't find the money to replace him once he's not producing that will mean the team's finances and philosophy has changed, not that Harper has.

[bkox]

There is a part of me that feels that Bryce wouldnt continue to play if hes a shell of himself at some point. He wont hang on for money. So even if he signs an extension and his 31 year old self believes he can play til 45.. his 40yo self will not want to embarrass himself and hang on for additional years.

[Purduke]

His final year OPS was sort of the retirement equivilant of a "contract year."

and the conspiracy theorists think they were juicing his baseballs to get him to 700 HR

Imagine how many balls Aaron would have had to toss out if Albert was sitting at 699 in Game 2.