Phillies Hot Stove, Winter 2023-24

[BostonRoss]

I think that just trying to obtain every great player hardly ever works. The Yankees of the late 1990s won championships in four of five years, then they started replacing players who fit well with superstars: Tino Martinez with Giambi, Brosius with (eventually) A-Rod, Cone with Mussina, O'Neill with Sheffield, etc. They didn't win until all of those guys were gone or greatly diminished (A-Rod). The Dodgers of late are a similar story though many of their superstar acquisitions were mid-season (Scherzer, Turner, Machado, etc.) They won once with Mookie, but not with any of the others, including Freeman.

[allentown]

A super expensive rental is not the route to go.

[zambonir]

The Yankees did actually win that '09 Series against us by going all-in one more time (Texeira, Sabathia, Burnett, Swisher, re-signing Pettite). But once is all they got out of it. I feel like the Phillies are doing something similar except in smaller increments for a longer - but still limited - window.

I also think it comes back to the structure of baseball now. Adding Soto or buying a reliever at the top of the market might give them a better shot at winning the NL East but guarantees nothing in October (even less than it did in the previous two decades).

Also - and isn't it ever thus - the Phillies seem to have a certain type of player they prefer when they shell out giant free agents contracts or make a major trade.

[Aquapong]

Yeah but we need something to talk about.

[zambonir]

It's not like we're the ones bringing it up, even if it's all speculation and clickbait.

MLB trade rumors: Juan Soto expected to be traded, Phillies will be in the mix

https://phillysportsnetwork.com/2023/12/01/juan-soto-trade-phillies/

https://www.si.com/mlb/phillies/news/mlb-insider-suggests-phillies-could-pull-off-blockbuster-trade-all-star-jon9

[BostonRoss]

The Yankees did indeed sign two superstars in Sabathia and Teixeira for 2009 (I can't put Burnett in that category--though maybe I saw a little too much of him later--nor Swisher). But they got excellent first years from those guys, as well as some of their older players like Jeter, Rivera, Matsui, and Damon. That wans't sustainable, and even though CC and Teixeira continued to perform for a couple more years, they had typical back end of the contract old guy issues.

I'm not saying it never works, but I can't think of cases where it worked for more than a year or two.

[zambonir]

The other two guys weren't superstars but neither are Schwarber or Castellanos or Walker. Just older expensive guys. Like you say, not sustainable.

But I can't say I currently see a clear path for this Phillies team to win championships in 2025 and 2026 with either the current players or the potential homegrown successors and while the pieces on the board will obviously change I can certainly see the logic in throwing even more chips into 2024. Last year for Thomson (in theory), Wheeler (ditto), and Schwarber, Casty and Realmuto surely won't be getting any better. While I'm not personally advocating for them to strip the farm for a rental the reality also is that if they traded five guys for Sota it's unlikely more than one or two would end up being regrettable. The problem is you never know which onces, and the Phillies also don't have a second set of five guys.

[andyb]

Trading for a 1-year rental does not make too much sense though I guess there is a longterm need for a power bat in the outfield beyond 2024. Rojas and Crawford might not be able to co-exist in an outfield (they each have less value not playing CF) and we really do not have any corner outfield prospects that look like good bets to be major league regulars. So short of Harper moving back to the outfield, we could really use a power bat out there with acceptable defense. I am OK with Casty in one spot next year, but we always knew years 4 and 5 of his deal could be worse than years 1 and 2.

[zambonir]

Of course Soto is still just 25 years old and in addition to power brings all the skills this offense - well, any offense - could use. If you get him you'd at least have to have a plan for trying to keep him and he would not be on the same age curve as Harper and Turner. And if you can steal him as a rental - because without an extension in place he'll never get the price the Padres are currently trying for, or what they gave up 18 months ago - you gotta at least try.

But otherwise, yeah, this team can still get by with the status quo and a few small tweaks, perhaps with a trade deadline acquisition if necessary.

Still don't understand how Nick got one more year than Schwarber.

[el-pietro]

I say trade for him and then do whatever it takes to extend him. He'd be 37 at the end of a 10 year deal signed next year.
I'd also suggest they offer Yamamoto a 10 year 25m deal given he's also 25. Players that you g and talented dont come around very often

[BostonRoss]

I feel that it’s risky to sign a Japanese player to a long expensive contract. Their record is really mixed. Sometimes you get Ohtani, Ichiro, or Darvish, but sometimes you get Irabu, Fukudome, or Matsuzaka.

[zambonir]

Not sure the success rate on that is any different than any other kind of free agent though. Especially the ones who are 30 are older.

[BostonRoss]

I think it’s different for current MLB free agents because they have a track record with the MLB way of playing and the competition, and there’s more of an adjustment (including cultural) for Japanese players (and others from Asia).

[zambonir]

True, but I don't think this guy is a coin flip. He's been heavily scouted, in a way MLB was not even close to back when most of those players (besides Ohtani) came over, plus he's faced MLB players, and he's only 25. Some teams may not want to pay him at the top end because he's not a sure thing (and smaller physically) but he's unlikely to be a bust. Worst case you are overpaying for a third or fourth starter but he's as likely to pitch for 10 years as any other guy.

The downsides of him as a player coming over from Japan far outweigh (IMO) the ones that Snell or Montgomery come with (whether that is QO compensation or the actuarial table), plus his AAV will be lower (with the posting fee also not counting against the tax).

I don't think he's a very likely guy for the Phillies regardless, they got Nola, and they'd like to keep Wheeler. But if we're contemplating the team doing truly insane or dramatic things (just for fun!) signing Yamamoto would also be the way to trade your young pitching for Soto (at least Abel if not Painter) and then if they wanted to keep Soto they could cut Wheeler loose when his deal is up.

A lot of Twitter talk about including Bohm in a Soto deal, as if he'd make a difference one way or another (for either team).

[Aquapong]

Who would replace Bohm though?

[zambonir]

I mean it's not that important a question because like I said I don't see why the Padres would want him (just because they don't need him and he's not a bargain-priced player or prospect anymore). Or why the Phillies would part with him (for the same reason you are asking). But on the other hand, if you were really adding Juan Soto to your offense, who cares? Sosa, Kody Clemens, Weston Wilson, Nick Castellanos (joke).

[zambonir]

My second answer would be Bregman (since we're just spending all the money).

[bkox]

It will be the red jerseys the Phillies ditch in 2024 – Phillies Nation

[bkox]

Phillies news and rumors 12/2: Diego Ettedgui leaving role as Phillies Spanish...

[Aquapong]

Noooo. Not the red jerseys! And Diego? Double whammy.