Phillies Hire Dave Dombrowski as President

[xogfog]

He was a builder before too with the Expos way back when, he'll know how to rebuild and hopefully get us over the top.

[BostonRoss]

I dunno, the Tigers were really bad when Dombrowski was hired worse than the Phillies are now. It took him some time, and they hit rock bottom in his second year, but they were in the World Series three years later. He made some great moves in Detroit, both trades (Miguel Cabrera, Max Scherzer) and free agent signings (Magglio Ordonez, Ivan Rodriguez). (And of course he traded Ugueth Urbina for Placido Polanco...)

[zambonir]

Better than McFail, Won the World Series with the Marlins, Got to the World Series with the Tigers, Won the World Series with the Red Sox.

I don't think you can judge anyone on winning championships, just on being in a position to win them. In that sense MacPhail succeeded with the Cubs. Somewhat less so with the Orioles but they were in MLB's toughest division. And that Boston WS was pretty much done with Theo and Cherington's foundation.

But I don't think we can assume he only knows one way to run a team. More importantly, if he got the job, he wants what Middleton wants. Middleton might be wrong about what he wants, but it's worse if the front office isn't on the same page. MLBTR put it well:

Dombrowski will have his work cut out for him in Philadelphia. Still, alignment between ownership and the front office goes a long way to establishing the type of culture that wins World Series.

[Austinfan]

If he tries to win now (this season, next season) he's a horrid mistake, b/c they simply don't have the resources (cap room, deep farm system) to make a big push. If he takes one step back to take two steps forward, i.e., he's realistic, then he could be a great hire.

To me it's simple, does the current team have the talent to be a consistent 95 win team (i.e. a team that will fluctuate between 90 and 100 wins)? If not, no tweaks are going to make you a consistent contender, right now they're an 80 win franchise (fluctuate between 75-85 wins), major changes are needed to make them a consistent contender. You have to get to 85-90 wins to have a team that can pull it off on a good year.

[andyb]

One "under the radar" thing about Dombrowski that is good is that he is not necessarily a "play by the unwritten rules" type of President/GM. He has always been aggressive internationally. The Marlins always had a significant presence in Latin America, understanding that geography and demographics gave them an advantage when they did not necessarily have the most money.

Boston is a more instructive example. One cannot trade for Chris Sale without signing Yoan Moncanda. Or Craig Kimbrel without Manual Margot. Or Drew Pomeranz without Anderson Espinoza. The Red Sox broke unwritten rules all over the place internationally, in both Latin America and Asia. The whole Muzziotti stuff was on his watch I believe.

I am not arguing that he is a conscious rule breaker like the Astros. More that he will take advantage of existing rules where possible, using money instead of prospects. The Red Sox were a leader in acquiring young talent with money. It is harder to do that these days of course, but at least he seems to have the right mentality going in. He probably understands how to buy a prospect in a deal and explain that to ownership.

[allentown]

To me it's simple, does the current team have the talent to be a consistent 95 win team (i.e. a team that will fluctuate between 90 and 100 wins)? If not, no tweaks are going to make you a consistent contender, r

I don't think anyone on this board. the local media, or the Phillies organization believes that the Phillies have the necessary talent to be a consistent 90-100 win team. That would be the level of dominance we had from roughly 2007-2012. Anyone talking about win now is talking about having a couple of contending seasons, before we need to rebuild, i.e. salvaging something from the current rebuild cycle and from Nola, Wheeler, Harper. Baum and Eflin are young enough and cheap enough to carry over to the next cycle. So is Kingery, if the Phillies still hold him in as high regard as they did prior to last season.

We don't know what Middleton/Dumbrowski plan to do: be respectable, while rebuilding and if 2021 isn't good trade at the deadline; same except give it a second shot in 2022, rebuild. The first two options are basically attempts to rebuild on the fly. With those approaches, not young talent is traded for vets, you spend on FA and retaining the guys like JT whom you want to keep and rebuilding the pen with FA -- up to the limit of your budget and salary cap.

[allentown]

I am not arguing that he is a conscious rule breaker like the Astros. More that he will take advantage of existing rules where possible, using money instead of prospects.

It would be very positive if signing Dombrowski really does signal that Middleton/the Bucks have given up on trying to be the good little boy scouts who willingly sacrifice to uphold the intent of the commissioner's rules and fervently follow his crusade against rising player salaries and bonuses. It would be nice to leave that period of unrewarded sycophancy behind.

[zambonir]

Anyone talking about win now is talking about having a couple of contending seasons, before we need to rebuild, i.e. salvaging something from the current rebuild cycle and from Nola, Wheeler, Harper. Baum and Eflin are young enough and cheap enough to carry over to the next cycle. So is Kingery, if the Phillies still hold him in as high regard as they did prior to last season.

We don't know what Middleton/Dumbrowski plan to do: be respectable, while rebuilding and if 2021 isn't good trade at the deadline; same except give it a second shot in 2022, rebuild. The first two options are basically attempts to rebuild on the fly. With those approaches, not young talent is traded for vets, you spend on FA and retaining the guys like JT whom you want to keep and rebuilding the pen with FA -- up to the limit of your budget and salary cap.

Took me a second to figure out your typo/autocorrect of Bohm. And are we going with "Dumbrowski" before he even screws up?

I think what you describe is what will happen, but I don't see how it can include JT. Signing him while reducing payroll - and they are definitely reducing payroll - ties up too much money over the next two seasons, in addition to money for another 2-3 seasons (though I suppose you'd be trading him by then if necessary). If they bring him back but don't have any $ left over to address the other holes, the team doesn't get better.

But that's assuming status quo on the trade market. If Dombrowski can flip Segura for a similarly compensated 5th starter (i.e. someone who used to be better than that) or $10 million reliever, and/or move Velasquez for another area of need without adding payroll, they'd have more room to play with.

And surely he'll resolve Herrera's status one way or the other.

I think it's a lot to expect the Phillies to go against the MLB tide, given how Middleton has treated both the CBT and this year's losses so far.

[Philsmania]

The Phillies are calling Dombrowski their "first ever President of Baseball Operations". In which case, what the heck was McPhail these last five years?

[julio]

Took me a second to figure out your typo/autocorrect of Bohm. And are we going with "Dumbrowski" before he even screws up?

Probably just a typo. Allentown isn't given to juvenalia...

[zambonir]

He was just the President, replacing Montgomery who was the President and managing partner (with MIddleton assuming the latter role). I think it was always pretty clear that baseball operations was not a big part of MacPhail's portfolio, whether by design, indifference or ineptitude. He worked on the business side, he worked a lot on stadium stuff, he gave his GM a pretty free hand. He didn't hire the manager or make player moves. When someone who wasn't Klentak did that, it was the owner.

If you look at the (still not updated) team web site MacPhail was at the top of the Executive tier, while Klentak (whose name is gone) was at the top of the baseball tier. It's possible Dombrowski's name will go over the latter (and then when MacPhail's contract expires Dave Buck will become President). Like the Dodgers, who have Stan Kasten as president and Friedman as baseball ops and then a GM (though nobody has that title now).

Given Dombrowski's history, he is likely to be the exact opposite of MacPhail, he'll be 90% hands-on baseball and his "GM," if they even get someone with that title, will be a glorified assistant. Which could also just be Rice for a year, of course.

[zambonir]

yup that's why there was a smile

[flyers19rw]

Saw most of DD's press conference. I may have missed it but I don't think that he mentioned Matt Klentak during the time that I was watching it. However DD did give a nod to Ned Rice.

[zambonir]

I'm sure Matt is being kept at a distance (even if that's literally the case anyway). Rice may or may not have chosen to lean on him a little up to this point, but from here he'll fade into the background just like Mackanin did. Maybe even get himself another job in 2022 instead of finishing out his contract.

Whereas MacPhail, sadly, will probably stay in the "cabinet".

[andyb]

He is mostly saying the right things. Big question is whether he can execute a "retool" without making the club older and more expensive.

Takeaways From Dave Dombrowski's Introductory Press Conference

[allentown]

With regard to a fear of making the team older and more expensive: that is easily accomplished by trading minor leaguers and young vets for established veterans, but much less for FA signings, since most FA signings (unlike the monster Harper deal), especially in the current climate, only effect 1-3 years (a JT signing, which I don't expect, more likely 4-5 years).. In any case, I think immediate damage of this sort is less likely and less severe since Covid has our 2021 budget and the lux cap ceiling $20-25 lower that it is likely to be in 2022, leaving a good deal of space.

This interview answered a big question floating in the back of my mind: what happened to the prior talk of expansion? I could see it going both ways -- cash-strapped teams wanting immediate expansion for a quick infusion of cash vs a fear that expanding now might yield only 75% the $ from waiting a year or more. So, at least a two year wait has been decided.3

[schillingfan]

I can’t help feel welcome to the new box, same as the old boss.

[zambonir]

This interview answered a big question floating in the back of my mind: what happened to the prior talk of expansion? I could see it going both ways -- cash-strapped teams wanting immediate expansion for a quick infusion of cash vs a fear that expanding now might yield only 75% the $ from waiting a year or more. So, at least a two year wait has been decided.

Yeah, I wondered the same thing. But it was going be a lot longer than that before any new ownership groups were admitted/checks were written anyway. They were merely going to be accepting presentations at the 2021 meetings, and now that has been delayed a year. After that, they will still be using the various markets as leverage to get Tampa and Oakland settled in too. And then the stadiums have to be be built too.

I doubt the pandemic affects the fee MLB can charge - or the media value - either way.

[xogfog]

I like the new box...

[zambonir]

MLBTR poll

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia

The top two selections are:

A Pat Burrell era: a lot of fanfare raised expectations, but ultimately this falls into the 'can't complain' category. 27.52%

A Danny Tartabull era: it might have been better for all parties if he'd retired right BEFORE coming to Philly. 20.77%