Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[zambonir]

Yeah, I mean, the part that's complicating is where it says the Phillies (and most of MLB apparently) don't believe Crawford can play an average big-league CF. Are they willing to let him grow into it? Or if not, could Marsh play RF well, if they brought back Bader or signed Robert?

Either way I still don't think an OF with that group upgrades the line-up/provides what the Phillies were missing from Nick, unless Bader doesn't turn back into a pumpkin or Robert becomes what he was.

Dealing Bohm is still an option but doesn't get you much back. Dealing Marsh might. Or they could just keep mixing and matching.

Bounce back candidates tend to be injury riddled players who get healthy.

Robert has been extremely injury-riddled. And probably poorly coached and unhappy (and a human trade rumor) too. But either way the risk is mitigated by him being a 1-2 WAR player regardless of how hits (the high end if healthy). Of course that's what we said about Rojas, and it's also true of Bader (but less so if he declines due to being the much older player).

[andyb]

Bounce back candidates tend to be injury riddled players who get healthy.

Which describes Robert.

[zambonir]

Dombrowski also said Thomson will get contract redone. Though it does also seem to me that the new bench coach thing creates a possible interim replacement if things go bad, not that the other coaches couldn't do that too.

[mdougherty12]

I could be interested in Robert if his option is declined.

If Robert is the answer, then the question was wrong. He has OPS+ of 86 and 85 the past two seasons. He would be a downgrade from what we already have. He still is plus defensively.

For what it's worth, Harrison Bader put up an 80 OPS+ in 1094 PA for the 3 seasons prior to 2025.

[Austinfan]

With Robert or Bader, depends on two things, how they project Crawford and Nori and how long a deal they want.
If they think Crawford or Nori could play CF in 2027, then they're not giving longer than a 1 year deal as a stopgap.

Nori and Escobar finished the year in Reading, so they'll start there in 2026. How fast they develop will probably determine 2027 moves, but not sure DD wants to commit money to mediocre players and block prospects - different matter if they can land an "anchor" CF in his 20s.

[andyb]

Nori has absolutely nothing to do with any of these decisions. He is just not a good enough prospect to be meaningful at this time. You constantly overrate prospects in your decision-making. Crawford is now good enough to be in the conversation for 2026. Nori needs to get much better to be a factor in any conversation as now many 4th OF fringe free agents (the kind that sign for minimal money) are as good as he projects to be. Weston Wilson is as good now ((in a different way) as Nori projects to be.

Yes prospects do have an upside. They can be better than their projection. But you don't plan for the future around them until they do that.

[zambonir]

If they want Bader and he will take a two-year deal at a decent price, no one on the roster will affect that decision. If he wants three or someone is willing to pay him based on the past year instead of the past four years... well, no one on the roster will affect that decision to say goodbye either. But they're probably not getting him on a one-year deal.

The only real consideration with Crawford as discussed is, do they see him as a CF in the long term and if so, shouldn't he just play there? Even if it means the '26 team allows some more runs (though Marsh back in LF would also add some prevention). And the other question is he a platoon or not. Bader certainly has to play more than just, platoon with Marsh, but if you move him around the OF he'd get more ABs.

[Austinfan]

If Bader isn't the CF, he's not worth signing, b/c he's not a good hitter and would be marginal as a corner OF.
He finished on a hot streak, but lacks discipline and the more he plays, the more he'll be exposed.

Nori is our 6th ranked prospect, and he was promoted to Reading at the end of the season (pretty good indicator that he'll start there in 2026). Doesn't turn 22 until next October 2026, which makes him young for AA and a legitimate prospect. He's a true CF from all reports, has less than 700 PA so lot's of room for improvement.

Like Crawford, needs to tweak his swing to generate more power, in his case, a matter of learning to use his stride to generate power. Has good plate discipline, makes contact, just has to develop consistent alley power.

Nori doesn't need HR power, as a plus fielding CF and a top runner, if he can maintain a OBP >.350 he has a lot of value. Combined with an ISO >.150 would make him close to a .800 OPS player. So he has a conceivable path to be a long-term starter, just has to take achievable steps up (maintain his plate discipline, improve his power).

[bigegypt0417]

You're right...nori has nothing to do with those decisions.

Nori's second half of the season certainly made him a more significant prospect. Nori is certainly a more significant prospect than he was a year ago. I would say you underrate about as much as AF goes in the other direction.

[Austinfan]

Nori has nothing to do with 2026 decisions, but the same way Miller has put himself into 2026 plans (probably start in AAA but if he picks up where he left off will be up by All Star break). he could be in 2027 plans.

They will watch both Nori and Escobar in Reading, and if they show significant improvement, probably promote them to AAA at some point - setting them up for a potential role in 2027.

Miller was 21 in Reading this season, Nori and Escobar will be 21 in Reading next year.
Top prospects move fast, we'll see how they play next year whether they're actually top prospects.

[zambonir]

Oh I think Bader would be the primary CF but you can't have Crawford and Marsh both playing LF. So you either go 50-50 in CF, move one of them to RF, or trade one of them (presumably Marsh, they can't afford to punt on the younger cheaper guy).

Crawford/Marsh/? or Marsh/Crawford? is also a perfectly fine OF, but only if the "?" is a substantial bat.

[andyb]

Nori has nothing to do with 2026 decisions, but the same way Miller has put himself into 2026 plans (probably start in AAA but if he picks up where he left off will be up by All Star break). he could be in 2027 plans.

No. Nori is simply not good enough to plan to hold a roster spot for him 2 years from now. Miller IS good enough. You plan around good prospects. You just hope the OK prospects like Nori make it and force good decisions after that. Right now Nori really does not project to be an above average regular. Maybe not even an average regular. You just don't plan on a guy who could be replaced by a free agent costing less than $10 million a year.

[Austinfan]

You have no idea if Nori is good enough, saying it doesn't make it so.
He'll be 21 in Reading next summer, that's really young for AA ball, he has had little more than a season of pro baseball. He's not a 3 year college starter, he was an overage HS kid, but has a lot of room to improve.
Obviously, the organization thinks he's pretty good, they slow walk mediocre prospects.

With both Escobar and Nori, starting in Reading at 21 means the organization thinks they have real talent - now it's up to them to demonstrate they can play at higher levels.

All Nori has to do to be a top prospect is be a decent hitter, a superior version of Rojas, or even Bader's norm, 80-90 OPS+ would be sufficient. Crawford has to be a much better hitter if he can't play an average CF.

[andyb]

You have no idea if Nori is good enough, saying it doesn't make it so.

Again you completely miss the point. You yourself don't think he's good enough. He obviously could be good enough in the future but he's not today. And his 50% probability projection is something like a 4th OF today.

He is not really on the fast track as a prospect. He was almost 2 years older than his class, so advancing to High A really is not that special. The AA means little as just about every prospect advances in the end because the seasons go longer. Chances are probably better than 50-50 that he starts back in Jersey Shore where he only had 11 games. I would not lump him in with Escobar either who is a better prospect, did more at Clearwater and had a longer run at Jersey Shore.

The Phillies are not considering Nori at all in their 2027 OF planning. They just aren't.

[jimbomill]

But I think I would still rather have Alex Bregman than Ranger,

Bregman just opted out of a contract that paid him $40M a season. As he'll be 32 by next April and will want an even bigger contract, I think it is a hard pass for me. Maybe a 29 YO Bregman, but not a 32 YO one. For that cost, keep Schwarbs.

[phillychuck]

These are the current Spotrac AAV predictions for the Phils’ free agents:

[phillychuck]

Looks like we are overpaying JT by quite a bit. Schwarber at $25M would be a bargain. They have Ranger at $27M, which is higher than I thought. When you sign older players, your WAR/$ is always going to be higher than it is for equivalent younger guys. Don’t know if they will be able to afford to compete in ’26 unless Miller and Painter take the league by storm.

[zambonir]

Well the idea would be to have both Bregman and Schwarbs (and Bader!). I agree I don't want Bregman at any cost/term. Just think they need a big RHB more than a SP, and 3B is only potential open spot besides OF. Of course if we were the Dodgers we woudln't have to choose. I don't think Bregman expects a bigger contract, just a longer one.

Certainly with unknowns in Wheeler, Nola and Painter, and Walker pretty much what he is, they are still going to need an arm or two. But a big free market deal for Ranger comes with its own set of risks. I would think the decision is still related to extending Luzardo as well, though they shed Walker for '27 and Wheeler for '28 so the money's there.

[andyb]

I think durability concerns will limit Ranger somewhat, but maybe he'll get something like 3/80 to balance them. Realmuto's value feels a little low compared to the market and they probably are using typical catcher aging curves that are brutal for players at JT's age. I would love to have him accept something like 2/30, but the market is probably going to get him a 3rd year and an AAV closer to $20 million.

Didn't DD say they were going to pick up Alvarado's option anyway? I guess it makes sense financially and the clubhouse and team know him better than we do. Schwarber has always had less WAR because of his defense and the DH-only profile. Bader also feels low coming off his career year.

In general the Spotrac numbers feel low but they probably combine data from the top tier at each posiition that always gets more than they are worth with the lower tier guys that get less than their worth. The Baseball Reference estimates are likely to be higher since they are sometimes more market-oriented.

[Austinfan]

I can't see Ranger getting stronger or healthier past 30, while Luzardo still has upside left, 33 starts, maintained velocity all season, no sign of fatigue or wearing down. So that's an easy choice, as much as I like Ranger, 30 starts is wishful thinking. The real key is whether Nola's strong finish means he's healthy and back, though I'd limit him to 180 IP.

JT wore down the second half, if you resign him, it's a decent price with the understanding he starts no more than 110 games and takes 2-3 days off every week. He prides himself on being an iron man, but age has caught up to him.

See if you can work out a reasonable extension for Sosa and/or Stott.
Unless someone offers a good return, just ride with Bohm one more season.
Bader only if the price and term are right, don't get fooled by two hot months. Last few years, not that much better than Rojas. OPS+ 85, 69, 86 then 117. So what would you expect going forward?