Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[Austinfan]

The problem is underlying metrics suggests Bader was lucky last season, and regression to the mean suggests you should expect .650-.700 OPS in 2026. Maybe he got healthy or fixed some flaw, but his metrics should have reflected that with more contact, higher exit velocity, etc.

At 32, it's more likely he'll regress at the bat and that his fielding will decline.

[andyb]

The "problem" is that going with Rojas makes the Phillies worse than last season. Frankly I want to let Crawford win the CF position and get a power RH bat in a corner. Don't obsess on Bader. There are other solutions there too (though its not our money if they do resign him).

[phillychuck]

The team would be better with a completely different alternative to Bader AND Rojas, although Rojas, because of his low salary, is a perfectly acceptable 5th outfielder. Bader is going to be (most likely) a 650-680 OPS outfielder with a good glove in CF. He’s going to get a decently sized contract. The Phils should not be the team paying him $10-$12M for a 1.5-2 WAR CF.

[andyb]

I am kind of in to the Bohm/Adell trade matchup. Then we could go Marsh/Kemp in LF, Crawford/Rojas in CF, and Adell in RF. Use Schwarber's money to put Bregman at 3B potentially and rotate the DH (adding some other mid-priced offensive bat somewhere). A Bregman deal would be risky, but so would a Schwarber deal.

There are lots of ways to shake up the lineup assuming we are going to stay at the same high salary level. Trade alternatives too. We really DO need right-handed power and Alonso would limit us at DH the same way Schwarber does. Lots of pressure on Crawford (who could flip with Marsh defensively but I'd rather give him every chance in CF), but it is easily the best way to get younger if you don't see Bohm as a long term asset.

[Philsmania]

Unless something changes, the only role that Rojas can probably play at the ML level is as a defensive replacement. He's probably a better version of Sil Campusano.

[phillychuck]

Rojas is interesting. He has great speed, and shows power occasionally (at least he did in the minors). One can argue that Rojas was promoted too quickly and his production suffered because of that. I don’t know if that is something that can be fixed or not. He’s probably a AAAA kind of player who has great tools and will get a lot of chances because of that.

Rojas has approximately a full season’s worth of ABs in the big leagues (over 3 years) and has produced about 3 fWAR. At a low price, that’s very good production.

[zambonir]

I think I'd just go get Tucker or even Bellinger if you're gonna move on from Schwarber. But I guess then you are probably trading Marsh and still need a RH OF (and it would be hard to afford Bader after buying Tucker).

But if you sign Bregman that OF doesn't have to be top shelf.

[andyb]

Rojas has approximately a full season’s worth of ABs in the big leagues (over 3 years) and has produced about 3 fWAR. At a low price, that’s very good production.

There is strong evidence though that Rojas piled up offensive stats his first time in the league and has sunk to replacement level at best offensively the past 2 years when the league figured him out (and his AAA numbers are not good enough to suggest improvement yet). The defense has also regressed from special to merely above average.

I am fine with Rojas as the 5th OF defensive replacement. Counting on anything more would be foolish (1.2 WAR combined the past 2 years with over 500 plate appearances).

[zambonir]

With only 199 career AAA plate appearances it would also be perfectly fine to leave Rojas down there as depth. Or trade him to a team that can play him everyday in the majors. This is his last option year so the crossroads of either MLB bench OF or journeyman approaches.

[xyzabc25]

My outfield would be:
Justin Crawford LF
Jarren Duran CF (Miller trade)
Taylor Ward RF (Bohm et al trade)
Gabriel Rincones Jr OF
Johan Rojas OF
Only Free Agent Kuzuma Okamoto at 3B (4/$90 million)
Additions to the Rotation and Bullpen

[andyb]

I am not building a Duran for Miller trade. Good hitter but not really a CF either. He replaces Marsh realistically.

At the moment Miller may be the only bat we have in the minors that projects to be an above average regular. Others may improve but for now it is just Miller. Bohm and Stott also may not be here long term so there are jobs to fill potentially. Overpaying for Duran (in prospect terms) just does not make great sense to me.

Rincones will probably make the 40 also, but doubt he is ready yet to hit in the majors so that is a bench spot to fill too.

[phillychuck]

Marsh is a good LH OF platoon bat with versatility of position. I would keep him in my rotation.

Crawford is an interesting problem that only those who have worked with him in AAA and at the complex can really solve. Can he play CF? If so, there is no issue there, put him in CF and let him learn the big leagues.

Miller has all-star upside, I don’t think any organization would trade him away because of the risk of looking seriously incompetent. The first priority of all organizations is self-preservation.

I also think that we are not going to attract a Japanese free agent unless with overpay by a lot. Probably not a good plan to do that.

We need a trade for a decent RH OF bat. I don’t think that is Bader is that player at his likely salary, but I could be wrong.

[biggsphils]

You wanna trade Bohm (.287 with 82 k"s for Adell (.207 with 126 k's ) Can't add more strikeouts to this already flawed lineup ? Everybody is in love with the power but only 9 more hr's from Adell then Bohm ??? I don't get it

[andyb]

Bohm is 28 and coming off a year with a 741 OPS. Adell is 26 and coming off a year with a 778 OPS. And has 2 years of control compared to 1 for Bohm. He is more valuable than Bohm and fits a positional need if we move on from Castellanos. There is lots of logic in the deal with the real question being whether we would have to kick in a decent prospect along with Bohm. K's are not everything.

[Patchmk88]

I actually think Rojas is a nice piece for a playoff roster. Potential pinch runner and good defensive replacement. For the regular season at minimum and with options left (I think) he can be a AAAA player that fills in for injuries and hopefully finds something at AAA for his future, but I would have included him on the playoff roster this year if he was healthy.

[BostonRoss]

I don't understand why the Angels would consider trading Adell for Bohm.

[zambonir]

Yeah I think the answer to Andy's question is you would have to throw in a signifciant prospect. Bohm will be making twice as much money as Adell and has one fewer year of control. They might sooner take Marsh back (not saying I would do that). But as a team that doesn't seem to know what it's going Bohm might be part of their attempt to still have a viable major league team, and then he'd be flippable in July when they inevitably flop.

Probably Bohm does not get you anything you really want except maybe a spare pitching part. But he might get you a few mid/low prospects to include in other deals (or replace people you dealt).

[EDmuch]

If we agree we need a RH power hitter, Adell pretty much would be the best available. What about Casty (us paying his full salary), Bohm and McGary as a package?

[zambonir]

No chance. McGarry plus another prospect and one of those guys maybe. Why would the Angels want to trade away 37 home runs for either of two pending free agents? If they want to win they keep Adell and if they don't they need prospects. They would start by asking for Crawford.

Anyway, I'm no Bohm fan but unless they are planning to get Bregman or Suarez or Bichette to play 3B, also not sure the Casty to Adell upgrade justifies the Bohm to Kemp downgrade (and they'd still need a cheap LHB 3B too). It's also still possible Bader provides more WAR over the next two seasons, he would just cost more $ (but nothing in trade).

[bkox]

Is Odell really worth all this? Yes he had 37 HRs but his OBP was 1 point lower than Casty's. And hes had one good season. Seems we are betting alot that he has finally figuring things out