Phillies 2025-2026 Hot Stove Discussion

[jimbomill]

Crawford, Turner, Schwarber, Harper, Adell?

Turner is an experienced leadoff batter. I'd think about his leading off and Crawford getting better pitches to hit at number 2, in front of Schwarbs.

[mdougherty12]

I would expect Justin Crawford to probably bat ninth, assuming he's on the Opening Day roster.

[allentown]

Trade with Angels. Bohm plus a medium pitching prospect for Adell.

Nope! Not if we are planning on re-signing Schwarber. Adell is a DH, an awful defensive rating if he's in the field. He had a good OPS+ of 111 last seasons, with plenty of HRs, but his prior years, giving him a career OPS+ of only 90. He is only 27 next year and a consistent HR bat, so he could be Schwarber's replacement, if the cost/years is too high for Schwarber.

In answer to the question above asking who will be better for us in 2028, I say Ranger has the best chance, although pitchers can fall to injury at any time. I think both Schwarber and J.T. can be good next season, although likely lesser than 2025, but both are unlikely to be guys we actually want as starters in 2028.

On your lineup above: if Adell is your RH bat to separate Schwarber and Harper, then he should hit between them. I don't think we should want both Schwarber and Adell on the team. Two DH types are one too many.

[andyb]

Eventually Crawford will hopefully bat leadoff but agree he starts near the end of the lineup. A future lineup of Crawford, Turner, Harper does make sense ideally followed by a RH bat better than Adell (who is more of a 6-7 hitter in a good lineup).

[zambonir]

Adell's not really a DH, he played 89 games in CF and and 69 games in RF. He might not be a good OF, but they are not going to find one of those who also helps the offense. Maybe it's better to just bring back Bader, but that will cost a lot more money (Adell is projected to make $5.5 million next year and is controlled//will be cheaper in 2027 too). And if you bring Bader as everyday CF do you trade Marsh? Move him to RF?

In a perfect world Bader and Marsh are a platoon but that's not the contract or playing time Bader can expect after last year.

Adell over one of "Miguel Andujar, Rob Refsnyder, Starling Marte, Ahmed Rosario, Tommy Pham and Austin Slater" seems like a no-brainer.

But who's the 3B? (I don't think the Angels would take Bohm anyway, if they are trading controllable guys they aren't taking back older expensive pending FAs. Even if they are dumb).

[mdougherty12]

Jo Adell is probably fine defensively in RF. His defensive metrics for 2025 are bad because he played a lot of CF, where he's well below average.

[zambonir]

Yeah he was -13 DRS in CF but just -1 in RF. Both as a fielder and a hitter a huge upgrade over the incumbent (not saying much) so long as the HRs still come.

Angels used to have another CF, IIRC.

[Austinfan]

Good point about Bader, and his inflated numbers:

Expected Batting Average (xBA): .229 (9th percentile)
Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG): .383 (23rd percentile)
Average Exit Velocity: 87.2 mph (12th percentile)
Chase Rate: 32.5% (20th percentile)
Whiff Rate: 29% (22nd percentile)
Strikeout Rate: 27.1% (12th percentile)

Phillies liked what they saw from Bader — did he do enough to return?

If you figure his expected OPS was probably .650 or so, he's really not much better than Rojas..
His career OPS is .714 and he's on the wrong side of 30.
They might just go with a Crawford/Rojas platoon and sub Rojas for defense in late innings.

[zambonir]

You raise a good point. Johan Rojas still exists. But saying Bader with an expected OPS of .650 is the same as Rojas with an actual OPS of .569 seems a stretch, unless Rojas was underperforming as much as Bader was overperforming.

The big unknown with what the Phillies already have is whether Crawford is going to play LF or CF (and the same question for Marsh).

The Angels should actually take Castellanos in any Adell deal. Even if the Phillies pay all of it.

[phillychuck]

I personally don’t think Crawford will ever be a plus CF. His instincts are not good.

[Austinfan]

It's also Rojas at league minimum at 25 v Bader at $10+M at 32.

[zambonir]

Yeah but I don't think that's a choice they are making per se. Yeah, if Bader is a 4th OF Rojas is a better choice for 4th OF. But they still need a 3rd OF.

I personally don’t think Crawford will ever be a plus CF. His instincts are not good.

Hopefully he can learn? I mean, a lot of people also still don't think he will be able to hit MLB pitching, but can learn.

[andyb]

It's also Rojas at league minimum at 25 v Bader at $10+M at 32

The goal is to make the team better though and right now Rojas is barely replacement level (0.5 WAR). I am not a fan of bringing Bader back, but there needs to be solutions to make the team better. Not sure anyone out there wants to cut the payroll and end up with an 82-win team as a result which seems to be the result of your strategic choices.

[EDmuch]

If we are competing to take on the Dodgers next year, Rojas is irrelevant.

[zambonir]

He's a perfectly good bench player or CF platoon with Marsh, and probably still a better CF than both Marsh and Crawford (if not Bader). Less useful in LF or in a platoon with Crawford (since Crawford should probably sink or swim playing every day).

He's a tradeable piece as well.

[Austinfan]

Unless you think he can post a .800 OPS over a full season at 32, so is Bader.
Start adding up the $, resign Schwarber, sign or replace JT, extend Luzardo and/or Ranger. Pick up Alvarado's option, sign another RP to replace Robertson.
Even before you try to add anyone, money will be tight.

[andyb]

Unless you think he can post a .800 OPS over a full season at 32, so is Bader.

No, Bader being better than Rojas is meaningful. Rojas not being good enough now to be a starting player is meaningful. You boil things down into meaningless hypotheticals. Again I am not really into re-signing Bader for 3 years, but I totally believe he could give us a 750 OPS with above average defense next year and I do NOT believe Rojas is likely to do that. Going with Rojas now is simply not going to make us a better team. Maybe in the future (he played well in AAA and is off to a nice start in the Dominican), but not now.

If you have ideas on how to make the team better without spending money we are all ears. Just saying no to any free agent and counting on mediocre prospects is just not going to cut it.

[Austinfan]

Bader with a .650 OPS isn't good enough to start either.
.714 is marginal, but might work if his defense doesn't start to slide at 32, but CF is a demanding position.
Last three seasons before this summer averaged 80 RC+.
OPS those three seasons, .650, .662, .657, or what his expected OPS suggests he should have posted last season.

In both cases, question is whether they can hit well enough to not drag their defense down.
Rojas more likely to be a top CF at 25 than Bader at 32.
So Bader would have to hit significantly better, probably .700+
Rojas has 2.9 WAR over 699 PA with a .634 OPS.

Both would be better suited as 4th OFs on low cost contracts as defensive players who could earn a bigger role if they show they can hit at a sufficient level.
Both are highly risky to write in as a starter.

[zambonir]

Bader already showed he could earn a bigger role by hitting at a sufficient level. He put up 4.2 WAR in just 501 PAs! Can he do it again? I don't know. But Rojas can't. It's not at all a choice in any way. Bader is either the Phillies' third OF or he's on another team. Rojas is a 4th or 5th OF who could platoon with Marsh or Crawford.

[andyb]

Lots of words there, but how are you making the team better with a strategy that replaces Bader with Rojas? No one disagrees that Rojas could be useful and cost-effective. He just is not better and not starting quality.

If a team with money values cost efficiency in every move they become the Kansas City Royals with a much lesser prospect base.