Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

[zambonir]

Certainly there are guys on the 40 who you wouldn't call untouchable. And also of little value. But they already might need as many as three spots (two relievers and an OF), a catcher would be four.

Hale is presumably casualty 1, and having both Maton and Chatham seems redundant, especially with MIller joining Didi since the Chatham claim. So I guess you can get there pretty fast, but axing two more pitchers who might still have a future remains less than ideal .

And yeah, we might not see Haseley for 10 weeks, certainly not for six. He'll start the season assigned to alternate site for rehab and/or could end up optioned too.

[andyb]

Llovera and Cristopher Sanchez to me are the 2 most vulnerable guys on the 40 now. Llovera has diminished stuff unless he shows more this Spring and Sanchez has just not been good in his chances. They probably think each of them would be 50-50 to get through waivers at the end of Spring Training when everybody's rosters are full. Hale is probably a "make the team or get released to save $500K" guy. He just has a better chance to make the team than the other two, especially if there is an injury or two.

[bkox]

The Phillies have now had 20 pitchers register pitches 94+ MPH so far this spring.

— Jack Fritz ( @JackFritzWIP ) March 6, 2021

[zambonir]

Yeah, but Sanchez has never really pitched above A ball, so I'm not sure he's supposed to show anything. And Llovera still only has 12 starts in AA. I get it, these next two years are all about trading present for future, and writing some guys off because of 2020's lost development. Obviously they've been passed by others, be it long-term or for immediate help.

And you're right, all of them - Hale included, maybe even especially given the extra bucks - could clear waivers. But Hale was re-signed when Bradley, Alvarado, Watson and Kintzler were here (and before this front office was in charge), to say nothing of the two starters, so they simply don't need the veteran depth the way they did before.

Its just (literally) insult to injury is all, if they not only have to go without JT but have to sacrifice a roster spot for a fourth catcher. I don't doubt Mathis would be better to have than Marchan anyway though, in the short-term.

[andyb]

Hector might be adding a new pitch. Good for him. I think he was throwing his split too much.
https://twitter.com/paul_boye/status/1367918663781806087

As the article on the Athletic notes he has thrown it in the past but not effectively. He does not need to throw it much, but mixing it in 10% of the time would help everything else.

[zambonir]

They could never seem to decide what he needed to do, which I'm sure is partly from having five pitching coaches in five years. Some years it was throw the split more, some years less. Other times it was do develop a third pitch.

[andyb]

I just think he needs the third pitch because his fastball is not that good. I think he throws it only 30%-40% of the time because it is pretty straight and not quite hard enough to catch too much of the zone. Throwing the split 60%+ was always a recipe for disaster and allowed hitters to often get ahead in the count. His split is great. Just not when you can usually predict it is coming.

[zambonir]

I feel like that was part of it, but sometimes he also wasn't executing the split - and then it becomes hittable - or it was actually looking different from the FB mechanically and thus becomes easier to recognize. Ideally he gets weak contact and swing-and-misses on the FB when the hitter thinks the split is coming. Certainly, a third pitch couldn't hurt! He's not Rivera.

[Taudawg]

Todd Zolecki answering emails on Phillies' day off. Several interesting replies.

Inbox: Who fills out rotation? Who's in 'pen?

[andyb]

I think this is the second reporter that says Herrera is the favorite in CF. That surprises me. I always thought that Herrera would be forced to show he could play for a month in AAA before he had a shot at a job and he is really not suited to pinch hit roles. I would think Kingery is the favorite at the moment.

[zambonir]

Well, he can't really have a good first month in AAA, can he? It would have to be two months - a month of alternate-site exhibition games and a month of real competition. So if he stays this hot - hardly a sure thing - perhaps you want to ride it. Mostly I feel like the Haseley injury changes things, and they are obviously down on Quinn already too.

And if Kingery is the starting CF they probably have to take Chatham or Maton (something a lot of the writers thing will happen anyway). So who knows.

[andyb]

If they only have 13 pitchers they could take one of Chatham and Maton AND have Herrera as another OF.

Starters: Realmuto, Hoskins, Segura, Grogorius, Bohm, McCutchen, Kingery, Harper

Bench: Knapp, Miller, Chatham/Maton, Quinn, Herrera

Joyce or Jankowski could easily beat out Quinn or Herrera too. Tricky part is 40-man spots. It seems Kintzler and Watson will make the bullpen (and chance of needing a 3rd for somebody like Rondon). So adding Herrera or Joyce or Jankowski requires a 3rd or 4th spot. That will be tough. Obviously Quinn or Velasquez could get moved. Just not sure that makes them a better team. I do not put much stock in Herrera's spring stats against weak competition. I imagine the team can make the defensive determinations on the practice field. I guess having 7 starters would make it easier to have only 13 pitchers because you would have 2 guys in the bullpen capable of going 2-3 innings.

[zambonir]

Yeah but then do you keep Haseley in the minors indefinitely? If Kingery is just the short side of the CF platoon he'll play some IF, and Miller can too.

I thought Joyce or Jankowski could beat out Herrera when it looked like they weren't really giving him a chance, but they clearly are (and Joyce can't really play CF, he seem redundant with Miller here).

I agree it's a bit early to read much into his performance. The real issue is that no one is inarguably better - any caveats about Herrera's spring training stats not being conclusive also apply to Haseley, Quinn and Kingery, with Kingery obviously being (we hope) the best of them going forward.

As we've already discussed, it's less than ideal, but hardly impossible to clear up those 40-man spots. I don't see how Hale stays if Kintzler and Watson both make the team. Then there's Sanchez or Llovera. If you take Herrera maybe you just move on from Chatham, with Segura, Didi and Kingery all here through 2022 you don't really need him if Kingery's not playing a ton of OF and Maton's in AAA.

[andyb]

I think Haseley is back as soon as he is healthy. Herrera is likely seen as clearly better than Joyce or Jankowski, but not Haseley. So if you do have Herrera make the team he would then have a month to prove himself as better than Quinn. If he plays well then you slow walk Haseley's recovery so he gets some rehab games potentially. If Herrera does not play well you replace him with Haseley as soon as Haseley is healthy.

Herrera is the one player you have that is absolutely guaranteed to pass through waivers each time you outright him and he won't declare free agency which would cost him lots of money.

Hard to tell how they feel about Quinn. He did not break well on the line drive over his head yesterday but had no shot at it either way. I did notice that was mentioned in Q and A but it is hard to know if these writers play favorites. A Joyce can be the hot thing with some late inning hits off of AA pitchers and things like defense and baserunning may be evaluated on a completely different scale that we do not see because it is analytically based on past games and also seen only on the back fields in Spring Training.

[LoneStarPhan]

Setting the roster for opening the season does not seem to be an easy task. The Phillies will have to find several 40 man roster spots and that will mean they probably lose some players. I would like to see them make a deal or too to open up some spaces on the 40 and bring back some talent to the system that doesn't need to be on the 40 in the next year or more. This is where the GM (or his boss in our case) can earn his pay. Instead of losing a couple players to waiver claims, move a couple players to open the needed roster spots and bring back some talent into the organization.

I hope they end up going with a 13/13 active roster. I recall several times when they were playing with a 4 man bench where they were handicapped late in a game because they did not have the players needed to make moves they would have liked to have made. As for the bullpen, I have always felt that 8 pitchers were sufficient. Of course, I grew up when the pitching staffs were routinely ten pitchers and often there was someone who didn't get into a game very often. Of course, pitchers back then routinely pitched complete games and managers used their bullpen much differently than they do today. I expect we will also see a couple spots in the 8 man bullpen manned by pitchers with options who will be sent to AAA and back several times during the season.

[zambonir]

Good point about Herrera - he can be DFA'ed at will. But once he's on the 40 that probably doesn't matter so much, since I believe he also can be optioned and they won't necessarily need a 40-man space at that point (certainly not for Haseley).

Just not sure it's certain Haseley is better than Herrera in the short term. It would have been nice to see him seize the job, but Kingery seemed to have the edge going in, and last year he couldn't beat out Quinn. In theory Haseley has a better chance of recapturing his 2019 form and improving than Herrera does of recapturing his 2017 form and improving, but the whole Herrera narrative turns on him being a more focused, bettter-conditioned player, so who knows?

I don't think there are any miracle trades out there to be worked for the likes of Llovera, Chatham (for whom we still owe something?) or Sanchez. I imagine more than one of the guys we end up outrighting will end up staying in the org, which also means they have no trade value. It never hurts to get a token something or other but these are gonna be Alec Asher/Tom Eshelman type deals at best.

Now, if you decide to move on from Quinn, or Velasquez, then it is time to get creative. But these in-spring training trades don't usually amount to much. Every team has its own 40-man issue, and on top of that there are just too many players out there available for free (now, but also once opt-outs and retention bonuses kick in).

[LoneStarPhan]

The roster moves will not be easy but somehow I feel more confident that good decisions will be made this year than I had in the last couple years.

[David_Criss]

Llovera, Sanchez and possibly Maton are DFA possibilities. And Quinn, Hale and Velasquez very easily could be traded, so I am not to worried about the 40-man crunch.

[andyb]

I don't think Hale has any trade value but we do save most of his salary if he is released by a certain date. I think he would be very likely to make it through waivers. Llovera too. Less certain about Sanchez as he seems to have more upside than Llovera these days. In terms of tea leaf reading (uninformed by what happens in simulated games on the back fields), Hale has had 3 decent appearances. Sanchez one bad outing. And Llovera zero. Maybe Llovera has some sort of injury that could make him a 60-day IL candidate? Given the minor league delay and a rehab stint, that would take about 60 days anyway.

I don't think there is much of a chance Maton gets DFA'd. He is too young and has more upside than Chatham. Remember Chatham was not recalled last year when Boston had lots of middle infield opportunities. I think they keep both anyway this year. We'll probably have one on the roster much of the time even if everyone else is healthy and their options mean we could use them at times to finesse an extra pitcher on the roster. Send Chatham down. Bring up a pitcher to start one game or for long relief, going with a short bench. Then call up Maton when that pitcher is sent back out because Chatham needs to wait 15 days.

There are advantages to keeping players with options when you have a relatively full 40-man roster. They have to be good enough to help now on the major league roster of course. Medina, for instance, might be a guy that gets called up 3 or 4 random times when the bullpen is taxed or we need a starter.

[schillingfan]

Herrera was always a streaky hitter. When good, he looked really, really good. When he hit a cold streak he was awful. Classic girl with a curl in the middle of the head. If he is hot now, I would keep him until the streak runs out. He could be hot through zApril.