Phillies 2021 Spring Training Discussion

[zambonir]

He's enough of a prospect that he couldn't/shouldn't be. You don't get value for a top 10 prospect (he's 10 BP, 11) in late March. He's also our #7 starter if Howard's not, and a linchpin of the AAA rotation in any case.

The 40-man crunch is not that big a deal, or even, as it turns out, much of a crunch. They'll either get a PTBNL for Llovera or Sanchez or they won't. And in two months they'll probably have several open spots (but let's hope not).

[Philsmania]

Medina is he still enough of a "prospect" that could/should be traded? Thinking of fetching something decent in return and clearing a 40-man spot at the same time.

I was thinking the same thing about Kingery but, with that contract, they would probably have to send some good money with him which would make its worthwhileness questionable. I doubt anybody would take on $18.75 million over the next three years for someone who is at the moment a reclamation project.

[VoteForKalas]

Kingery's fall has been pretty stunning after all the hype and contract. Looking like a whiff which is a real shame.

[zambonir]

The hype is continuing in terms of the magnitude of his so-called failure. I still write off last season, and he was still an extremely valuable player in 2019. I still think he comes back and is a 1-2 WAR player, in which case he can also improve on that, depending on his role and playing time going forward. He could easily still be our CF this July or our 2B next year. Between the COVID and the sample size I am no more worried about him than I was about Hoskins at the end of 2019.

[Philsmania]

Kingery's fall has been pretty stunning after all the hype and contract. Looking like a whiff which is a real shame.

Signing young guys to long-term contracts is usually a smart strategy. But, the two times Klentak did it--Herrera and Kingery--it blew up in his faces/our faces.

[andyb]

So far we have paid Kingery a little more than $3 million for 0.9 total WAR. It is not a disaster yet, other than the opportunity cost of not having a better player in there at times.

If he is worth 4 WAR the next 3 seasons for a little more than $20 million it will again be worth it. These contracts are rarely an awful deal, and we do have Kingery at a lower AAV in years 4-6 of the contract because of the low cost early years.

[Philsmania]

So far we have paid Kingery a little more than $3 million for 0.9 total WAR. It is not a disaster yet, other than the opportunity cost of not having a better player in there at times.

If he is worth 4 WAR the next 3 seasons for a little more than $20 million it will again be worth it. These contracts are rarely an awful deal, and we do have Kingery at a lower AAV in years 4-6 of the contract because of the low cost early years.

The catch is that the contract is not an even $4 million a year. It's backloaded. He's due $4.25 million this year, $6.25 million next and $8.25 million in 2023. Not a terrible sunk cost for this year (in a worst case scenario) but somewhat significant by 2023 if he does not turn it around.

[andyb]

$6-$9 million is still cheap the last 2 years of the contract if he becomes a starter (or a 2 WAR supersub).

The low AAV lets the team afford more current year players. And as fans we know the billionaire owner can afford it.

[zambonir]

Yeah the cash doesn't really matter, only the AAV. If he ends up being an overpaid Brad Miller it's not the end of the world - but let's hope he can hit that well. The Phillies bought themselves the opportunity to avoid the headache of service time manipulation on the front end, and the opportunity to save a bunch of money on the back end. Two lost bets so far but doesn't mean they weren't worth making.

[Austinfan]

Well, guess we'll see this year if "Driveline" is for real.

Dombrowski said minor-league hitting coordinator Jason Ochart would join Kingery at the alternate site and be the main person working with Kingery while big-league hitting coach Joe Dillon keeps tabs.

According to the Phillies media guide, Ochart is “co-owner/director of hitting for Driveline Baseball, a data-driven baseball performance center.”

[andyb]

Time to roll this over into in-season discussion threads?

Last bit of Spring news. Neris is the closer. Probably the right call. I think they will cycle players in and out of the job this year and also shy away from using people on consecutive days too much (a past Girardi pattern). Neris probably deserved it as Bradley and Alvarado were not quite as good in the Spring. Bradley has always been most useful in a setup role and is throwing 94 instead of 96 these days. Alvarado scuffled late which made the decision easy, though as the only LHP in the bullpen I think you just deploy him as needed in the 7th-9th inning when the key LH bat is up. Another LHP in the bullpen would give you more freedom to have him close more often.

https://twitter.com/ToddZolecki/status/1377253394021289985

[phillychuck]

I wonder if kikutaro will be back with the game threads?

[zambonir]

Joe is nothing if not a traditionalist. Alvarado is unproven and as you note, the only lefty, and Bradley is both more established as a set-up man and can pitch more than one inning. And I don't think Kintzler, the other "proven" closer, was ever really a candidate.

Hopefully Hector is set up for a good year (and age or injury don't get him) that gets him back to 2019 form. Light usage last season, new pitch. He hit his usual rough patch in 2020 but between the small sample and how terrible everyone else is he wasn't actually a disaster. The high walk rate and WHIP was probably from the one epic bad patch; career-low FIP and 0 home runs (two related stats). Strikeout rate still about the same as ever; was a lot higher in 2018 but that was his worst season.

Honestly it will be interesting to see if Girardi is flexible, other than when off days factor in, because it seems like he and many of the pitchers just prefer set roles. Closer/set-up/lefty, just like on the Charlie teams, with one more guy as the top 6th/7th option.

[andyb]

I think Joe is going to be pretty flexible. I expect Alvarado to close if it looks like the Freddie Freeman at bat will occur in the 9th.

Of course we all hope Hector goes 40 for 42 and we don't need to think about being flexible.

[zambonir]

Well, I'd argue at that point you are still sticking to a set role, in that case you just have Alvarado knowing in advance that he has to be ready to get Freeman out (along with some other guys) whether it's in the 7th, 8th or 9th, and Neris knowing he won't pitch the 9th if that's how the batting order lines up.

Where you get into trouble is if Alvarado faces him in the 7th (or even 6th) and then he still comes up again. But with a two-run lead and no men on base Hector will also face him (and probably walk him).

[zambonir]

Also, from Gelb:

Matt Gelb: No pitcher had a higher year-to-year jump in... - The Athletic

[julio]