Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[zambonir]

But they could have just left him in rehab and not played games with Eflin. But, obviously, they wanted a body on the bench at that point, and they didn't want Walding.

[Austinfan]

Maybe there's some jumping to conclusions?
Kingery is more useful off the bench, with Bour LH, Knapp (S), Kingery is a RH bat.
He also was a college OF before he moved to 2B and has some experience this year, so if he's a PH or PR, he can move up and down the lineup (say runs for Santana, Hoskins to 1B, Kingery to LF).

Both players will probably be encouraged to play winter ball, and will compete for the SS spot in ST next year.
Right now, they don't want to start either player, so the winner is the more useful player off the bench.

[zambonir]

It's not just this move though. It's the fact that he'd lost the SS job to Kingery already in June, even though at the time they were also prepared to play him at 3B over Franco. And it's the media reports saying they think Kingery is the better defensive SS.

I agree it is less disruptive and also more practical to send down Crawford. He's been up and down, on and off the DL etc. Kingery's been here all year. He may yet get two or three starts at SS this month too.

Of course I still think they intend to get Machado, at which point Crawford is either gone or a bench player anyway, while Kingery either returns to super-utility guy or 2B (who knows, he could also start next year in AAA).

[zambonir]

The team's spin on all of this is here. As noted, Crawford's LH a factor given Bourn, though neither he nor Kingery should be on the bench for their bats right now.

Why the Phillies demoted J.P. Crawford instead of Scott Kingery

The really interesting part of the article is when Kapler refuses to say where Eflin threw his bullpen session; meaning, I assume, that he has not physically reported to AAA (the article notes he has yet to be added to the Pigs' roster), and presumably won't.

[allentown]

Of course I still think they intend to get Machado, at which point Crawford is either gone or a bench player anyway, while Kingery either returns to super-utility guy or 2B (who knows, he could also start next year in AAA).

And this is why Crawford should have been in a deal for Machado. For whatever reason, Crawford has ticked off TPTB for some reason or they have soured on him, because they've really driven a stake through the heart of his career. His trade value takes another step down and it isn't going to rise next season as a utility IF. I wonder if he was offered the same contract as Kingery and declined. It is very clear that he is no longer regarded as the SS of the future. They'll try to sign Machado, if not him it will be Kingery or they'll sign/trade for someone else.

[EastFallowfield]

Machado's hitting in August like he's on the Phils, by the way, .229 BA, .587 OPS, 1 RBI.

[VoteForKalas]

Kingery got the playing time at the ML level, but fell short of acceptable performance. He would benefit with a couple hundred more at bats at AAA, but now is languishing on the ML bench. As to any PR aspect, not sure that is a factor. Does seeing Kingery continuing to fail at the ML level give the Phillies a PR boost? I don't see it.

My point was sending Kingery down to AAA would be perceived as a PR blow the Phillies want to avoid.

You're right that keeping him in the ML continuing to struggle is not a great PR look for the Phillies either, but they likely believe they can support that position easier than having to admit he needs more seasoning at AAA

[andyb]

Athletic on the Phillies offensive woes:

Putting the Phillies' offensive woes in perspective as club...

Interesting stats. We are first in MLB in walk %. 29th in contact % and batting average. 18th in OBP. 24th in SLG. Obviously we gave a lot of at bats to Kingery. Altherr too in the first half. But one could argue this lineup needs some more free-swinging contact hitters. We get people on base but we don't get them home in anywhere near the frequency we should.

Ramos will help somewhat, but I think I see why Kapler wants Williams batting 2nd or 3rd lately. His offense is more built around batting runners in than getting on base. And Herrera, who is also in that mode, is just not playing as well as Williams lately. Cabrera also should help. This is an offense that should do better as the season goes on. I think I would try to get Bour 3-4 starts a week against RHP. Once we get to September we can be comfortable pinch hitting for him when there is a left-handed pitcher relatively early in the game since the lineup will have more depth.

Edit - Athletic article notes Ramos could be up today.

[David_Criss]

    Age	Level	P.A.	AVG. OBP. OPS. BB  K	 HR	SB

Kingery 21 A 282 .250 .314 .652 18 43 3 11
Kingery 22 A/AA 603 .281 .335 .723 41 109 5 30
Kingery 23 AA/AAA 674 .304 .359 .889 45 108 26 29
Kingery 24 MLB 395 .223 .266 .586 21 100 5 9

Crawford 20 A/AA 522 .282 .373 .775 65 60 6 12
Crawford 21 AA/AAA 551 .250 .349 .688 72 80 7 12
Crawford 22 AAA 556 .243 .351 .756 79 97 15 5
Crawford 22/23 MLB 199 .202 .332 .651 28 55 2 3

Yes Crawford was a round 1 draft pick and many of us had hoped he was the next Ricky Henderson at SS, but his numbers have also decreased each year in the minors. Kingery was a second round draft pick and his numbers have gotten better each year in the minors. Neither one has lit it up at the MLB level. Both are still young. Kingergy played four years at the Division I level. Crawford was drafted out of high school.

It wasn't that long ago that Glavis was traded and Crawford was going to be the everyday SS and Kingery was going to start at AAA, playing 2B and not even be added to the 40-man since he didn't have to be protected this year. If the team wasn't battling for a playoff spot now, they would be splitting time at SS. Valentin was also a first round draft pick albeit for another organization, but still it goes to show not every early draft pick will become an all star.

We could very well see Hernandez traded in the off season with Kingery slotted in at 2B and Crawford slotted in at SS barring any trade and Franco's future with the team.

      Age	Level	P.A.	AVG.  OBP.  OPS.	BB	K	HR	SB

Kingery 22 A/AA 603 .281 .335 .723 41 109 5 30
Crawford 20 A/AA 522 .282 .373 .775 65 60 6 12

		                P.A.  AVG. OPB.   OPS.	BB	K	HR	SB

Kingery 23 AA/AAA 674 .304 .359 .889 45 108 26 29
Crawford 21 AA/AAA 551 .250 .349 .688 72 80 7 12

Kingery 24 MLB 395 .223 .266 .586 21 100 5 9
Crawford 22/23 MLB 199 .202 .332 .651 28 55 2 3

[teabag259]

Right now...today...I would prefer to see Quinn as the starting CF. Odubel has been beyond awful and shows no signs that he is trying to make any adjustments.

[andyb]

Shows my point from a few weeks ago that Crawford has generally been better at each level at the same age. Of course with both of them it remains to be seen whether there is another level of improvement in the majors. Crawford's lost season did not help and Kingery really needed a half season of AAA as he has needed a half season of adjustment at each level.

It will be interesting to see if they add a Machado. If they do they might be in win-now mode and not play either of them.

If they don't, it probably would be good to have a fair fight in spring training for the SS job between Crawford and Kingery with the loser playing regularly in AAA. And maybe you deal Hernandez but I doubt they do that this winter unless they add another infielder like Machado. An out-of-the-box GM might also consider dealing Franco instead. Putting a free agent like Machado or Donaldson or even Cabrera there. Franco might have some trade value after his offensive improvement lately.

I do fear they will waste Crawford as an asset. If I were him I would go to a Winter League and try to dominate. Go with Quinn to the Dominican and play well in the toughest winter league and give the Phillies some tough decisions for the Winter Meetings.

[Austinfan]

Guess Cabrera was the better choice between two SS with limited range.

[EastFallowfield]

Machado's been better with LA than Asdrubel's been with us, but Machado's been in a slump, so the pennant race/money chase doesn't seem to be inspiring him to raise his game.

[schooldoc]

Separate question. How do you feel about the idea of paying Cesar $8 million in arb next year? At that point, I think the production is not worth the paycheck.

[philsphan67]

IMO, which is as an avid baseball fan, but never played beyond legion ball in 9th grade, is that the Phillies patience at the plate to drive up the pitch count hurts their batting average. The Yankees and Astros philosophy is to hit the first good pitch they see.

[allentown]

I fear that when you coach your hitters to hit with more loft, you are committing to less contact. In the case of guys for whom this is not their natural style and who previously had significantly better contact, it ma result in a lot of swings and misses and popups. Also, preaching working the count should and has led to more walks, which is a good thing, but also leads to more Ks. The taking of rather obvious called 3rd strikes is an issue. Perhaps the Phillies need to reconsider that the new app roach may not work for the entire lineup. This likely will get better with some time as 'work the count' has led to some fiat first strikes being passed by hitters who aren't comfortable hitting behind in the count and after taking the fat first strike swing and miss or ground out on subsequent far, far worse pitches.

Despite all the walks, Santana has not been an effective hitter this year, especially for a middle-of-the-order 1B.

It seems reasonable to expect that choosing a bat path which puts your your bat in the hitting zone for a shorter fraction of the swing is conducive to both strike outs and slumps.

[allentown]

Separate question. How do you feel about the idea of paying Cesar $8 million in arb next year? At that point, I think the production is not worth the paycheck.

I think that's just another reason his trade value has fallen. As far as the Phillies are concerned, if they want him, the $ are totally insignificant. The bigger issue about Cesar is whom the Phillies want as their double play combination going forward. That is what determines whether they want Hernandez on the team. He is good as a 2B, but lacks the positional flexibility to be a utility IF. We could afford $8 million for him as a utility IF and insurance against injury to one of the starting IFs. He can be the body who counts as the utility IF in that Kingery can move to SS and Crawford or (in the very unlikely chance they can sign him) Machado can play 3B.

We are years away from having to ask "is player X worth the arb award he's likely to get?'.l If we want a player, we keep him and we are still way below both lux cap and what team revenue will bear.

[allentown]

Shows my point from a few weeks ago that Crawford has generally been better at each level at the same age.

No, I don't think it shows that. The first comparison shows that; the next two comparisons show that Crawford is two years younger but an awful lot worse in comparison.

[Philsmania]

Another possible factor to consider is that Crawford was drafted and mostly developed under the old regime (Amaro GM, Wolever scouting director). Phillies drafted him in the year of the Wetzler-Monda fiasco. Wolever's retaliatory actions which had college-eligibility ramifications for those two players the following season got Wolever fired. Kingery predates Klentak but not Almaraz and, aside from his first year as a pro, was developed under the new regime. Hence, Kingery is more their guy while they see Crawford as, at best, a player they are less invested in or, at worst, as a relic of the old crew.

If I was a gambling man, I would bet on Crawford to either be traded before or be an IronPig on Opening Day 2019.

[andyb]

No, I don't think it shows that. The first comparison shows that; the next two comparisons show that Crawford is two years younger but an awful lot worse in comparison.

Kingery was better in one of the 3 comparisons, his big AA/AAA year compared to the year where Crawford had a tougher adjustment at AAA. Crawford was better offensively in the other 2 comparisons and importantly was 2 years younger.