Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[flyers19rw]

On a different topic, what is the latest news on the recovery of Kevin Gowdy? Any chance that he is doing light throwing yet?

[andyb]

No news that I have seen. TJ surgery was mid-August last year so even under the most optimistic recovery timeline he would not be throwing in games until a year later. That means at most a handful of GCL innings this year but more likely trying to ease him into some instructional league outings.

This still means they could point him towards Lakewood in 2019 though (likely a late start in May or June to conserve innings and avoid cold weather). He would still have 2019 and 2020 before any 40-man decisions would need to be made about him.

[Austinfan]

If he isn't a standout pitcher by 2020, it's unlikely he'd be claimed in the Rule 5 draft, so that decision makes itself.
A struggling LH in A+ ball is unlikely to be selected, he's not a fireballer someone might hide in a bullpen, he'd be most likely used as a LOOGY and that's probably not worth the roster spot.

[andyb]

No idea who you are talking about as Gowdy is right-handed. He is also exactly the type of pitcher who may need to be protected after A+ ball even if his performance is in the "not obvious to protect him" zone. He is reportedly a guy with a pretty sophisticated 4-pitch mix who could move quickly once he is healthy and gets beyond artificial innings limits. He also has so little experience that some bumps in the road for him are likely once he actually starts pitching. The learning experiences that many pitchers get through in short season ball will now be in A ball.

I am hopeful about Gowdy. Assuming he can come back 100% (a big if of course), there is no reason he could not be a top 10 prospect in our system again. But he'll need to be treated delicately on his comeback balanced by the need to prove himself relatively quickly. He is probably not a "transition to the bullpen" guy like Dominguez because his stuff is more varied but less dominant. Last thing we want is to leave him unprotected and then see him blossom 3 years clear of the surgery.

[flyers19rw]

From what I’ve read about TJ re-habs, there is a chance that he could be doing light tossing at this point and, as andyb says, some innings in the GC later in the summer. Just wondering if he is on that schedule.

[Austinfan]

Holiday weekend. Just profiles more like a finesse LH than a fireballing RH.

But he's not a flamethrower, which makes him a bad candidate for a Rule 5 hide 'em in the pen type.
If he's not throwing well by 2020 (i.e. hasn't regained or increased his velocity and lacks command), he's not going to be claimed.at 22 years old. He's not going to be claimed out of Clearwater if he's not pitching well there because there's no role he could fill on a ML roster.

If he comes back 100% and has increased velocity and command, he's a lock for a 40 man spot. He'd probably be promoted to Reading by mid-2020 in that case.

[allentown]

Well you said Tocci wouldn't be drafted. He was drafted and thus far kept. Free marginal prospects have an appeal.

[LoneStarPhan]

The Phillies have reached the 50 game mark of the season with a record of 29-21.

Since the four game sweep of the Giants, they have gone 7-6 and continue to stay around the 8 over .500 mark. They now enter a ten game road trip: 4 with the Dodgers, 3 with the Giants, and 3 with the Cubs. Realistically, I see a 5-5 record on this trip to be a good result. Of course, I want more than 5 wins but this is a difficult road trip and splitting the ten games is as good as we can expect.

The pitching has been extremely good. The offense has struggled of late. If Hoskins cannot return to being more productive than he has been this month, I am afraid the offense will continue to struggle. I have been disappointed in the defense, which has had some pretty ugly games of late.

[andyb]

ust profiles more like a finesse LH than a fireballing RH.

Except he does not profile as a finesse LH. Yes he is a 4-pitch guy who in HS sat 92-93 but touched up to 96. And at 6'4" and only 170 something there was room for more. A guy with 4 pitches and a feel for pitching would be fine in any bullpen role if it came to that in the rule 5. You seem to obsess on velocity. Stuff is much more than that. A healthy Gowdy is a pitcher the Phillies would not want to lose even if he had only gotten to Clearwater. We protected guys like Drew Anderson and Elneiry Garcia who had much less potential.

[Austinfan]

If Gowdy is struggling two years from now, either his velocity hasn't returned or he can't command his secondary pitches.
When you're talking stashing a Rule 5 player from A ball, who goes for a SP with 91-93 velocity? Teams tend to take chances on high velocity guys who can be buried in the pen for a year.

If Gowdy does regain his velocity and command of his secondary pitches by 2020, he'll be on the 40 man roster.

[gmwannabe]

there's a good chance this team comes home in third place and not really due to their play. the Nats are movie' up faster than George Jefferson. A split road trip would be nice. above .500 trip would be great. a ten game win streak i would accept.
gm

[Austinfan]

It doesn't really matter. The key this year is just to be competitive, to give the young players a taste of games that matter. if they end up with 80-85 wins but develop players like Hoskins, Kingery, Crawford, and Alfaro, the future is bright.

[gmwannabe]

i guess you're right. get them ready for the future few years. should be a good battle with the braves in the future.

[tom81]

I agree the future will look bright if they end up with 80-85 wins but develop players like Hoskins, Kingery, Crawford, and Alfaro. The future will look brighter if we go to the WS. There are no NL teams without flaws this year so we have a shot to go. The games matter.

[California_Dreamin]

The next 32 games [ basically June] will determine how the braintrust views the rest of the season. There is not a non contender in the bunch and should the Phils navigate through this potential minefield with a record still above .500 [and half the season completed] and healthy then I believe Klentak/McPhail will feel the pressure from Middleton to go for it...meaning the playoffs.

Honestly, a 16-16 record would be a wonderful testimonial to where the team is right now, even something like 14-18 would probably be acceptable. Let's see where the team sits come July 1 and then we can begin discussing whether or not a potential Hamels reunion etc are worth the price of a prospect or two.

[Lawman]

I was at the game yesterday. A few thoughts from an untrained eye.

1) Pivetta labored, clearly didn't have his best stuff. I also thought he - both pitchers, but it seemed to effect Pivetta - was getting squeezed on the strike zone a little bit.

2) Offense just seems to have no punch. That being said, they were definitely picking up on Happ the 3rd time through the order.

3) I was kind of surprised that Kapler pulled Pivetta at that point. OTOH, he was 3 times through the order already, close to 100 pitches, and they had to generate offense. That being said, I'd have sent Herrerra up there to PH. Florimon has no punch.

4) Maikel Franco surprises me with his defensive ability at 3B. He'll never be a gold glover, and he (and I) are kind of, well, round. But he can pick it.

[zambonir]

I don't think there's gonna be any pressure or mystery. Even if they are at .475 on July 15, they are going to try and contend. I just don't think they will sell the farm for a wild card. But so long as the division is wide-open they're not gonna be timid. And they will prefer to acquire players who can still help next year (which includes Hamels, even Machado if you value the recruiting opportunity). But it will all depend on the price.

A lot of questions have already been answered. Franco, Altherr, Williams, and Alfaro all look like players who can still help you, though none of them besides Alfaro are definitively future cornerstones (i.e. a FA 3B or RF is still not out of the question). Kingery and Crawford are still early on the curve. Hernandez isn't going anywhere.

As for the road trip, 4-6, 5-5, 6-4, it doesn't really make a difference. The team has already shown itself to be a quality club that can win every game it plays, when the pitching is there. Offense still needs some work overall but the gulf between its runs scored and how a lot of individual players still look on paper says something for their approach and philosophy.

I'd be disappointed if they only win 10 or 12 games over the next month, that would definitely change my opinion. If that happens it probably means they still don't have four starting pitchers (let alone five).

[rkeden]

I know that this is not a reflection all my own as others have voiced concern as well, but I fear that we may be wasting the opportunity to find the above "future cornerstones" among the players we already control. I was hopeful that Altherr, Williams, Hoskins and Kingery could settle in to a role, offensively and defensively, that would enable them to grow both skills and confidence. The constant sitting and shifting of positions in both the batting order and field are not conducive to settling in. My analogy is to tennis as I am a tennis coach---- when my serve is good the rest of my game magically picks up. And versa vice. When Aaron, Nick and Scott are thinking about not screwing up in the field, they aren't thinking about a laser focus on improving their hitting.

I know why Santana is in Philly. I got a rush when I heard he was coming here. I also credit him for a visible improvement in both output and attitude of Franco. I firmly believe his presence has made a difference to Maikel. However, his being at first base has put the rest of the young'ins in total chaos. Only our huge upside rookie catcher has had a chance to settle in and focus on the day's lessons and prep.

I view all four of our outfielders as high ceiling players if they are brought along carefully and coached to overcome their weaknesses. Three of the four have plus defensive skills and the fourth is (barely) adequate in the outfield but has a plus bat. Maybe even A+. They all need to play. They won't even be valuable chips in a trade if we don't help them find their groove. This defines conundrum!.

[Philsmania]

I was at the game yesterday. A few thoughts from an untrained eye.

2) Offense just seems to have no punch.

I think all of that goes back to Hoskins at this point. During the First Phillies Golden Age ('74-'83), as Schmidt went, the Phillies offense went. Then, during the Second Phillies Golden Age ('01-'11, but particularly '05-'11), as Howard went, the Phillies offense went. In both of those cases, when the "big pieces" slumped, the lineup struggled mightily to score runs. Now, again it seems we are once again dependent, perhaps overly dependent, on our headline slugger, now Hoskins, to really make our offense click.

[LoneStarPhan]

I have been thinking for some weeks now that the constant changes in the starting 8 has hurt the defense. I think they need to bring more stabilization to the starting lineup, but I don't know exactly how to do that with the extra players who need to be starting. I think platooning at one or two positions can work as it did for the corner outfielders in the early 90s, but I think they would be well served to have a stable starting infield.