Phillies 2018 Season News/Notes/Discussion

[allentown]

I’m guessing they’d take the pick rather than Crawford and throw ins

The success rate on getting better than Crawford with a comp pick is low. They probably see themselves as the talented exception who will find a future All Star with the pick, but if they think their scouts can find a diamond in the rough with the pick and their development staff can refine that talent to All Star level, then they can see the same potential in Crawford. We could really test our development staff and include Randolph or Moniak instead of Suarez.

[andyb]

Why is everyone so down on Crawford? He has shown improvement at each level after getting settled there. There is just no evidence that he is not going to be a high OBP, good defensive SS. 64 cold weather at bats are really not going to change the projection seen over 2,000+ minor league at bats.

If we traded a middle infielder I'd probably trade Kingery over Crawford. Would prefer to deal Franco instead of course.

[allentown]

Why is everyone so down on Crawford?

I don't think anyone is so down on Crawford. People are just willing to overpay to rent Machado in the hopes of extending him. I wouldn't rent him without an extension. If you get Machado, then Crawford has no place to play and you need Franco to play 3B. Machado has made clear that he wants to play 3B, so we don't extend him without a promise that SS is his through at least 2019. Crawford looks like he can be a solid SS. He doesn't look like a star. Crawford has 70 warm weather AB and 64 cold weather AB in MLB. The question isn't weather or not Crawford is good enough to be our starting SS, at least until Gamboa or the other LA kids contest for the job. The question is what trade value he has, because Machado makes him redundant. The best that can be said about Crawford's offense is that once he adjusts to a league his OBP is good and his OPS are ok and he doesn't have the speed to get an offensive plus from base stealing. This year his dWAR has been negative, although this may be a function of the Phillies deliberately sacrificing defense for positional flexibility.

[andyb]

The extension is the thing though. If it is a rental I'd be fine with Crawford or Kingery cooling their heels in AAA for the rest of the year with Machado playing SS. But in a rental trade I want to keep Crawford. We are not being given the option of the extension trade I believe. And even then I think Machado is not a long term SS. Crawford is. Kingery isn't. The choice of who to trade is pretty simple if I had that choice.

As for now, I don't believe the SSS defensive stats. Our TEAM stats though show we are terrible. Probably a combination of learning how to do shifts better and playing a couple people (Hoskins and Kingery notably) in positions where they are not that good (and don't have the tools to be that good). Hard to imagine playing Crawford won't improve our defense. I also have 2300 minor league at bats that suggest the offense will be at minimum acceptable and potentially much better than that (a 350/350 OBP/SLG SS is pretty valuable).

[Austinfan]

You're not getting an extension, Machado forced a move to SS b/c he's angling for the record money, which tells me it's all about the ego with him. When you get to that kind of money, you see what a player really values.

I'd save my cash for Trout.

[andyb]

Machado has been an excellent team player throughout his time in Baltimore. He was a shortstop in the minors and it is natural for him to want to play it. He also has a good agent who would tell him if playing shortstop decreased his value.

There is really no reason to say it is all about ego with him when he has been a team player throughout his time in the majors. And if you are being that fan that says any player is all about the money, then what actually is wrong with that. He has been with a cheap organization his entire career. I think you'd want a good long term contract if you were in his shoes.

[Austinfan]

One of the key issues in free agency is how money will change a player.
We're talking the kind of money that can go to some players' heads.

The money is so large he's not trying to provide for his family but to feed his ego.
And the stakes are so high you can't afford a mistake.

[allentown]

Winning lots of pennants, championships, MVPs, AS appearances, and getting into HOF on first ballot will also feed his ego and be a great plus for whichever team signs him long term. Yes, it will be an extremely expensive contract. Yes it goes beyond what he needs to feed his family, down to his great-great-great grandkids. But, it is part of the players attempt to recoup a fair share of the value they contribute to the game, rather than let the owners keep increasing their share of revenue. As was definitely the case with Thome, one big reason players push for the highest possible deal is to benefit future players by setting a new benchmark. The Phillies either want Machado or they don't. If they want him, it is going to cost $350 million/10 years, possibly more. You can say he is simply greedy, but that is his market-established value and somebody will give him that. Trout may really, really want to play in Philly, but he isn't going to be cheaper than that. Of course Machado is angling for record money. He is the biggest superstar to come up for FA in years, he is young, baseball revenue has increased greatly, and owners' share of revenue has risen. He'd be a fool and a traitor to the players if he didn't not just angle for but demand a record contract. Whatever he gets, Trout will push for more.

Every year you say FA contracts are out of line, yet that's the market, the contracts aren't getting any cheaper, and owners are continuing to unfairly make out like bandits at the players' expense.

[andyb]

One of the key issues in free agency is how money will change a player.
We're talking the kind of money that can go to some players' heads.

The money is so large he's not trying to provide for his family but to feed his ego.
And the stakes are so high you can't afford a mistake.

And Trout isn't doing all that too? Or any baseball player pretty much. All of them want to make as much money as possible. And that is what they should want. They can always balance that with wanting to win also but why is Machado any different than Trout who cashed in for $144.5 million before his arbitration days with the full intent of getting $300 million plus more at age 29. Good for him. He balanced cashing in with risk with his contract.

[EDmuch]

There is no clear reason why we should not be able to get Machado in free agency. We can meet virtually any credible dollar amount for his contract. He knows many of the Front office personnel and our current shortstop is not and probably never will be even close to being a star. And, the team is playing credibly so that he can see that his addition could be what helps put them over the top. Getting him to play a half season here coulee add to that momentum. So, I have no problem including Crawford in a deal to get him. I understand others will disagree.

[Philsmania]

A lot of people seem to think that it's fait accompli that Machado signs with the Yankees this winter. I'm not sure i see that. The Yankees have Gregorious and Torres who can play shortstop. One of them would be rendered superfluous by signing Machado.

[zambonir]

I might trade Kingery before Crawford in a rental-only deal, because if Machado isn't playing for you in 2019 who's the shortstop? Whereas 2B is covered. I do still think either of them are probably too much to give in a rental deal. Certainly fair game if an extension's on the table. Which it most likely won't be, but we won't know for sure until it's trade time. If the O's and Machado refuse to even open a 24-hour window, that's that. If they're willing to at least listen it shoudn't be that hard for the Phillies to make the pre-emptive offer. It would benefit the Orioles if he was willling to listen.

Now, if the Cubs are your competition and their offer starts with Russell, then yeah, you have to include Crawford or Kingery, especially if you think the Cubs want to keep Machado.

Meanwhile, the Phillies are probably for real:

Last season, only five teams — the Astros, Yankees, Nationals, Diamondbacks and Rockies — had this strong a start, record-wise.

All five of them made the playoffs, winning at least 87 games.

Going back two seasons, 11 of the 13 teams to start this fast made the playoffs, and going back another, it's 15 of 20.

The Phillies have not arrived at this record with dumb luck. They've outscored their opponents by 38 runs. They're fourth in the NL in runs scored and fourth in runs allowed

"Yeah, but they beat up on bad teams."

That's not even really true. The Phillies are 17-15 this season against teams .500 or better, including 8-3 in their last 11.

Pivetta's emergence, Alfaro's cannon, and what 27-18 means

[bkeich]

Meanwhile, the Phillies are probably for real:

My biggest fear is that we have been unusually lucky with injuries. Not counting Eickhoff, who started hurt and may or may not end up with a starting rotation spot we have been oddly healthy. Neshak is somewhat the same argument. Crawford is really the only injury of any length that means much. Some of that is being a young team, but if we get hit with a more normal number of lost games we might not look so good.

[Austinfan]

That's simply not true, a lot of players pick their destination based on family, comfort, a chance to get to the WS, location, etc.
And a lot of players aren't primarily motivated by money and don't have their ego attached to getting the biggest deal.
Some actually think that once you're so rich you can't spend it all that it's more important to find an environment where you'll be happy to go to the park everyday and to go home.

Though if Machado is primarily driven by money and bragging rights, he won't come to Philly, he'll go to NYC or LA where he can hobnob with wealthy people and stars and feed his ego. You can't outbid those kind of off the field opportunities.

[zambonir]

But given that youth the Nats and Mets, if not the Braves, are just more likely to have injuries. Fingers crossed. Not saying it's going to be easy but the deeper into the season we get the less likely it is that this team doesn't win 85 games.

And the youth also equals depth. Some of the young starters aren't so great/consistent that they aren't easily replaced short-term (even by Florimon who continues to follow in Blanco's footsteps as an unlikely utility bat). And we've got two starting-caliber players on the bench.

[andyb]

Money is the dominant factor and Machado has done nothing to deserve your ego comments which seem to be reserved for players you don't like for some reason.

[zambonir]

Far as I can tell Bryce Harper is the guy who more closely fits AF's fantasy picture of an unlikeable superstar athlete. Machado seems very low-key, and we already know how much he appreciates all of the Phillies people who drafted and developed him.

But they both want the big money this off-season, and not only is that okay, it's what the Phillies have been preparing for, and are positioned to take advantage of. It's also unique to their age. If they were 31 year-old FAs, the market conditions to get the biggest contract ever wouldn't exist. We'll see how much this market resembles last year's market, it still might not happen. But I've got no problem with it. They (and players in general) deserve it, given how the system works and where revenues are.

[Austinfan]

He forced a move to SS which has probably hurt his team.
That's not a selfish player?

All stars have egos, that's part of what drives them.
But some are driven by their competitive urges, some by love of the game, and some by money and attention.

When spending a huge sum on a free agent, better be sure what motivates him - because as he ages, if he's not driven by competition and love of the sport, odds are he won't pay the price to stay on top.

[zambonir]

He also unselfishly moved to 3B in the first place, and continued to play there even when he would have been an upgrade over Hardy. He also played there when Hardy got hurt, when he would have had every right to say, "why disrupt my game?"

Things are never as simple as the sports-radio take (see also, Nick Williams in AAA or half of nearly everything ever said about Herrera). The Orioles wouldn't have made the move if it hadn't been thoughtfully discussed. It's not like they have any reason to coddle Machado, he's leaving.

What nobody saw coming, I think, was the possiblity that he wouldn't be as good at SS. If anybody had thought that in advance - "we're not moving you to SS because Beckham is a better defender" - it might not have happened.

Now, given the Phillies are trying to convince Machado to either A) sign an extension-with-trade or B) sign as a FA, if what he wants most in the world is to play shortstop, they are probably going to try and make him happy. But I see no evidence that he's ever been difficult or selfish about it, and it's possible that if he wants to play on Kapler's Phillies he'll play both positions, depending how things shake out with the other 3B and 2B/SS candidates.

[Lucky_Beagle]

When is the last time the PHillies batted the pitcher 8th? (I don't recall it happening in a long time although I may have missed it.) If I am right and it hasn't happened for awhile, why not?