Phillies 2017 Spring Training Discussion

andyb 2017-02-23 15:15:24 UTC #41

You are probably right about Mackanin's gut feeling. I just think it is wrong. Rupp is enough of a veteran to help Knapp. I hate the idea less about the waste of the roster spot and more because it probably costs Knapp 1 start a week.

Knapp is young enough where he needs to play. Not every day, but at least twice a week plus pinch-hitting and double switches to 1B. That gets him 250-300 plate appearances with Rupp in the 400-500 range starting 100-110 games plus his own pinch hitting. 125 plate appearances for Hanigan or another 3rd catcher comes mostly out of Knapp's playing time. It is great that Knapp can play 1B occasionally, but so can Stassi or Kendrick or Coghlan and they probably do better there at this point than Knapp will.

While Knapp is kind of the forgotten guy at catcher, I still think there is a 10%-20% chance he is our regular catcher for much of the next 5 years. Rupp might regress a bit and Alfaro may never solve the strike zone. And Knapp does have 750-800 OPS offensive potential. The chances of our long term starter might be 35% Rupp, 55% Alfaro, and 10% Knapp - but that is still a big enough chance that we should continue to develop Knapp a bit. As a catcher and not a utility bat.

zambonir 2017-02-23 21:38:31 UTC #42

I've been predicting that all along but who knows if Gelb is any more informed than I am (i.e. not at all). Just seems that he, like me, thought it was meaningful that they brought in two extra catchers instead of one. And he has repeatedly written that the Phillies do not see Rupp as a veteran/mentor, and that, in fact (and this was just written about yesterday) they still think Rupp is a mentee, in terms of defense and pitcher-handling. That would seem to be more than just Gelb's opinion.

If this is true, Stassi is the afterthought, unfortunately. If he was on the 40 he'd probably have a better shot but he also doesn't have the amount of OF experience as the other guys.

I think if you assume the catcher is making the team instead of Stassi, that's a bit more frustrating than if you assume the catcher is making the team instead of Gomez or Florimon, which is also possible.

I don't think it's just Mackanin who wants a veteran. It's McLure. It's Klentak. And Rupp's perceived shortcomings come from the analytics department (his negative pitch-framing stat), not just the coach's observations.

Austinfan 2017-02-23 22:50:07 UTC #43

I don't think the RHP issue will matter much, because the PHillies emphasis the two seamer and changeup, which for most RHPs tail away from LH hitters, Nola being a dramatic example.
It's more of an issue for a four-seamer (straight) and slider/curve pitcher because it's harder for them to move in and out on a LH hitter.

flyers19rw 2017-02-24 00:52:56 UTC #44

Rupp had a good year in '16. However he could regress to what he did in'15 this season as easily as he could repeat last year. Behind him, who knows? Knapp or Alfaro could step up; or not. Having Hanigan around isn't a bad idea.

Les229 2017-02-24 03:44:23 UTC #45

I think they will keep two catchers and use Blanco as an emergency catcher. He has been working at it some this spring.

zambonir 2017-02-24 05:53:50 UTC #46

Emergency catcher isn't the issue. I can't remember a time they actually used the emergency catcher (when it was the likes of Bruntlett, Werth, Tomas Perez. Coste doesn't count). This is about wanting an actual catcher in the bullpen and working with the pitchers and other catchers on a daily basis. And about having an insurance policy if Knapp seems overmatched or Rupp gets injured.

The issue, possibly, is that they may not be able to stash the veteran catcher in AAA. Both players could have opt-outs.

It will work itself out (as we always say in spring training). But if it happens, for sure, it means DH and 1B and PH opportunities for Knapp at the expense of catching, while the third-string guy starts once a week and enters some games late if they've PH for Rupp (or need a double-switch. Though Knapp could also do that).

All else being equal I think it might be what they want, they just haven't shown that bulletproof confidence in Rupp or Knapp (actions speak louder than words). And they are probably imagining a future where Knapp is a swingman type player for several years. But if Stassi, or even one of the middle IF guys, has a great spring training, the spot could still easily go to one of them.

phillychuck 2017-02-24 14:09:48 UTC #47

Do we think that Hannigan's likely season is any better than the worst possible Rupp/Alfaro/Knapp seasons? I don't. That was a bad signing if he gets any significant time.

flyers19rw 2017-02-24 14:45:38 UTC #48

Two years ago I saw Rupp and he didn't impress me as being much of a prospect. He was awkward behind the plate; bad swing while hitting and slower than a turtle on the bases. Perhaps he was injured? Last year, out of nowhere, his game turned around. He claims to have reworked his swing as being the reason for that. Fine. Do it one year and it's an attention getter; do it twice and perhaps it's a trend. Let's just wait and see where Rupp is going forward.
If Rupp's performance slides, Knapp may not be ready to fill in the position. Alfaro needs some time at LV. Having Hanigan around is good insurance. He's not a great hitter but can handle pitchers and has decent defense. A nice, solid veteran presence.

andyb 2017-02-24 15:36:50 UTC #49

CD - I am not sure I would go as far to say that no successful team has had an all right handed rotation. As Philsmania showed in a couple of recent examples, there are likely many instances of an all right-handed rotation.

The advantage to me is that you can have options against a team that hits right-handed pitching well. I think whether our rotation throws 2 or 4 seam fastballs is a non-factor though. Our pitchers have platoon splits like most right-handed pitchers. Have 1 or 2 lefties in the rotation makes the opposing team shuffle their lineup and maybe get out of a groove they might be in facing 3 righties in a row. Situationally, however, one rarely sees a team shuffle their lineup these days to get a lefty against a team that hits righties well. Sometimes you can do it with a decision on the 5th starter, but most teams these days prefer keeping the rotation on regular rest and in their regular order to any 1-game platoon advantage.

If anyone did a deep sabermetric analysis I doubt they would find much. I suspect the all-righty rotation is a little bit of conventional wisdom that never had much evidence behind it.

andyb 2017-02-24 15:40:21 UTC #50

No I think Hannigan is worse than all 3. He was a good signing if his role is AAA insurance. I just think there is much more upside in giving Knapp a chance than in sitting Knapp on the end of the bench. I really don't care if Alfaro's backup at AAA is Moore or a veteran. That is really where the mentor and insurance are needed.

Philsmania 2017-02-24 17:07:54 UTC #51

MacPhail discusses efforts to modernize the organization.

Apparently, Stiles is retiring soon, so they'll need a new COO to take care of the non-baseball side of things. Interesting how he claims they are modernizing that department as well with business analytics and an upgraded social media department.

donaldorc 2017-02-24 17:52:12 UTC #52

Interesting article. I hope they didn't clear out ALL books when the got rid of shelves for a video screen. Gotta have a mixture of old and new.

zambonir 2017-02-24 19:57:35 UTC #53

Hannigan won't win them any games but they aren't really trying to win games. It's the old "player-as-a-coach" and intangibles thing that many understandably find dubious, but it is completely consistent with how this team was put together. Bringing in Kendrick because he's a "veteran hitter," re-signing Blanco because he is good in the clubhouse (yes, he can play too, but that was still a huge factor), Buchholtz. Certainly there's still a very good chance the veteran catcher will just end up in AAA, as so many have in the past. Tough luck for Moore, perhaps.

BostonRoss 2017-02-24 23:43:58 UTC #54

I'd prefer for a coach to be the mentor, not to waste a roster spot on one.

Maybe as soon as Chooch retires...

zambonir 2017-02-25 03:04:24 UTC #55

I think most of us think the player/mentor thing is overstated (though I remember plenty of people saying Moyer and Halladay were like having a second pitching coach) but clearly many teams feel otherwise. I suspect there may actually be some data to back it up, and not just in sports - that you learn more day-to-day from an experienced co-worker/peer than you do from a manager/superior.

I'm into the idea because I hate the way the back-up catcher never PHs, and that the worst bat on the team always does (though if Stassi makes it over Florimon or Gomez that will be less of a problem, since Blanco is a good enough bat, Coghlan is fine from one side and we hope Altherr hits). I think it would be fun to see the manager make use of Knapp.

And while it's true that a third-stringer would get 15 or 25 starts (depending how long he stays on the roster) it's also true that with only two catchers Rupp might start 125 games (he topped out at 104 last year when Ruiz still got more action) which would really leave Knapp with limited playing time (especially if he isn't used as a PH most days). So if this does happen I think it would be for two reasons, the mentor/veteran defensive catcher thing and creating more opportunities for Knapp to see what he makes of them.

BostonRoss 2017-02-25 03:28:03 UTC #56

I suppose that certain players are so good at being mentors that having them around has some value although it helps if they are real contributors like Halladay was until his last year.

But I am not sure it applies to all that many veterans. Being in Boston last season, I don't really remember Hanigan being talked about as a great mentor, but I wasn't really listening for that.

Les229 2017-02-25 04:06:48 UTC #57

I think that we are over thinking this. Allentown is way too close to worry about a third catcher taking up a spot. The emergency catcher is in case something happens tonight. If it does, Blanco muddles through and tomorrow someone comes from Allentown and someone drives up to Allentown from Reading. These on the way down catchers are not hard to get, any time during the season. As for a bullpen catcher, they have them, they just don't have to be on the roster. I get the feeling that this discussion is designed to get Knapp more playing time. I saw him play some first base last spring and he was in over his head. First off, I don't think that his offensive numbers at Lehigh Valley were good enough to consider him an extra bat. Secondly, I don't think he is all that great a catcher. Backup catchers just aren't that hard to find. Some seem to think that Knapp is a shoe in for the backup job, but not in my book. He just hasn't sown enough. I think I would make Knapp earn his way on to the club.

Les229 2017-02-25 04:09:08 UTC #58

I think he is there as a stop gap if Rupp should get hurt in spring training, or early in the season.

zambonir 2017-02-25 07:12:12 UTC #59

The way it has been reported so far, it's not about emergency catcher or bullpen catcher (who is a coach, not a teammate), it's about not being confident in Rupp's abilities as a handler of the pitching staff (both in general and in terms of the actual pitch-framing runs saved data), and no longer having a Ruiz or Ellis around to help bring him - and now Knapp - along.

That said the main reason Knapp is the frontrunner for back-up catcher is he's already on the 40 (and the tight roster was part of why they couldn't re-sign Ellis), so squeezing another catcher on doesn't help there (though the 4th and 5th bench spots are likely going to someone who isn't on the 40 no matter what).

It is not out of the question that Knapp could struggle a bit in spring training and actually not make the team. Then Rupp gets his mentor and Knapp gets more time - albeit not enough playing time, but no less than he'd get in the bigs- in the minors.

zambonir 2017-02-25 11:19:36 UTC #60

Perhaps another reason why Gelb is predicting that third catcher

3. Andrew Knapp: If he cannot be a suitable backup option at first base, it will not be for a lack of effort. Knapp, every morning this spring, has faced a barrage of Larry Bowa fungos.