Phillies 2017 Spring Training Discussion

[Austinfan]

Analytics like FIP, etc. are much better for RP than ERA, because bad luck can really skew ERA, but individual outcomes used to produce these analytics (hits, walks, Ks, BABIP) will be more stable. WIth starters, the sample becomes large enough that you get more convergence.

Nice to see Hoskins still in camp, the kid can hit, I think he's gonna have a big year in Lehigh, problem is I think Joseph is going to have a big year in Philadelphia. What an awful problem to have. Surplus talent!

I think Stassi and Nava are both going to make the team, though Nava might be trade bait as a bench player for a contender.

If Lehigh doesn't dominate the International League Allstar game something is seriously wrong - because they start the season with a ML caliber prospect at 7 of 8 positions (excluding 3B), all 5 starters, and maybe even a couple BP guys.

[Philsmania]

Murray has a shot down the road, maybe Milner as a LOOGY, the other two, forget about it.

Murray had a fantastic spring. Franzke and LA talked about that fact a good deal last night. Who knows, maybe a light's gone on with him.

[DurhamBull]

I know spring training games don't count, but the Phils won both of their split squad games today by a score of 8-2. They beat a couple of bums named Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. Home runs from Perkins, Franco, Altherr, Nava, Stassi, and Hoskins.

[phillychuck]

There's very good video on the phillies.com site today showing all the HRs and some other plays. Worth clicking to see.

[Austinfan]

I think we can stop worrying about power.

Altherr looks like he's 100%, and trust me, he'll take over one of the corner spots by June if he is, between his power and his plus plus fielding, it'll be a done deal.
Franco, Joseph, Rupp, that's a nice trio. And the way Stassi is pounding, I suspect he makes the team and gets some LF starts.

And in AAA, Alfaro, Hoskins, Cozens, Williams, some horsehide is gonna be in the stands this year in Lehigh.

[LoneStarPhan]

Yes, great offense today. Getting 8 runs on 13 hits is good news; doing it two times the same day is very good.

I may well be wrong, but I'm optimistic going into this season. Probably not going to win over a hundred, but I'm hoping to see them get 81.

[Austinfan]

I think the difference this year (and hopefully going forward), when the inevitable injuries and off years occur, the reinforcements available from Lehigh will prevent the August swoon that kills the season for young, thin teams. Other than 3B, there's someone in place to step in and pick up the slack at every position and the starting pitchers.

[andyb]

Rodriguez and Morgan get the bullpen spots. Good move to have 2 LHP on an all right-handed staff IMO. 2 bench slots among Stassi, Nava, and Valentin still TBD. Is it worth a slightly better bat in Nava to risk losing Garcia? IMO No. I'd go with Stassi and Valentin here even though Valentin could easily shuttle back and forth at times to get some AAA at bats.

Adam Morgan, Joely Rodriguez win final Phillies' bullpen jobs

[David_Criss]

I'd let Garcia go for Nava at this point. I think the chances of him passing through waivers and being re-signed to a minor deal are pretty high. And we are talking about a 30-year-old bullpen arm who is one year removed from one decent season. He put up good numbers at AAA last year, but we aren't talking about Mariano Rivera in his prime here, we are talking Luis Garcia. I certainly would have kept Ascher over him.

My concern with keeping Valentin is two-fold. 1. He hit .248 in only 30 some games last year at AAA. I don't see that transferring to great success as a utility guy at the Major League level, at least not right away. 2. Sometime this year, or this time next year, the Phillies could have Hernandez, Kingery, Glavis, Valentin and Crawford for two spots. I see a trade coming sooner rather than later and if Valentin is going to be that guy, let him put up solid numbers at AAA. Or if the Phillies see him as the next Blanco, then let him play that role at LeHigh Valley this year.

and Nava doesn't strike out much at all - not saying Valentin or Stassi are destined to strike out, but I see Nava has having better success off the bench then Valentin.

Just my two cents

[allentown]

Kingery, Galvis, Hernandez, Valentin will really compete for 3 spots: SS, 2B, utility middle IF.

If the biggest thing was winning 79 instead of 78 games this year, I'd consider going with Nava, but it isn't, so I wouldn't, although I know Pete will take the opposite view.

[BostonRoss]

I'd let Garcia go for Nava at this point. I think the chances of him passing through waivers and being re-signed to a minor deal are pretty high. And we are talking about a 30-year-old bullpen arm who is one year removed from one decent season. He put up good numbers at AAA last year, but we aren't talking about Mariano Rivera in his prime here, we are talking Luis Garcia. I certainly would have kept Ascher over him.

My concern with keeping Valentin is two-fold. 1. He hit .248 in only 30 some games last year at AAA. I don't see that transferring to great success as a utility guy at the Major League level, at least not right away. 2. Sometime this year, or this time next year, the Phillies could have Hernandez, Kingery, Glavis, Valentin and Crawford for two spots. I see a trade coming sooner rather than later and if Valentin is going to be that guy, let him put up solid numbers at AAA. Or if the Phillies see him as the next Blanco, then let him play that role at LeHigh Valley this year.

and Nava doesn't strike out much at all - not saying Valentin or Stassi are destined to strike out, but I see Nava has having better success off the bench then Valentin.

Just my two cents

This is close to my thinking as well, with a few minor differences:
1. I think Garcia might well be claimed on waivers.
2. I wouldn't call Garcia's 2015 "decent" (5 BB and 10 H / IP).
3. Nava may well have trade value and is worth keeping for that reason (as well as being a decent bat off the bench).
4. We can get by with one utility infielder since Kendrick can play there. It might be worthwhile to play Kendrick at 2B and Altherr in LF against many LHP.

[BostonRoss]

Kingery, Galvis, Hernandez, Valentin will really compete for 3 spots: SS, 2B, utility middle IF.

If the biggest thing was winning 79 instead of 78 games this year, I'd consider going with Nava, but it isn't, so I wouldn't, although I know Pete will take the opposite view.

Actually, those four will be competing for two spots since Crawford will be the SS.

Since Valentin may be part of the future, I think the "biggest thing" is what is best for him, Lehigh Valley or the Philly bench. It is perfectly reasonable to think it is Lehigh Valley since Valentin is 22, has only 36 games at AAA, and didn't exactly tear up the IL. Sending Valentin down hardly constitutes a "win now" mindset.

[HopeSpringsEternal]

Eickhoff gives up 6 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks in 2/3 of an inning today. Yikes! I hope he was just working on something. But it's hard to explain away that bad of an outing for your last start before the season opens.

[andyb]

On Valentin the Phillies also know that he got 160 AB this winter in Puerto Rico. It is possible that the club thinks that playing time (coupled with him playing very well this spring) is comparable to addition AAA experience. The Puerto Rican league is probably a bit below that, but he did get some good experience there (including the Caribbean World Series at the end).

[bkeich]

Valentine is the guy that I suspect will eventually be our utility player. My preference would be to send him to AAA and have him start playing some OF (maybe 30 games or so) and have him backup the infielders, that should amount to significant playing time. He would be my first call up for any injury other than C (until Crawford of course forces his way up).

[DurhamBull]

Eickhoff gives up 6 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks in 2/3 of an inning today. Yikes! I hope he was just working on something. But it's hard to explain away that bad of an outing for your last start before the season opens.

Like I said yesterday when crowing about the Phils winning both of their games -- spring training doesn't count. Good thing, too, because the Phils are losing 14-1 at today. Ugly!

[Squire]

Nava and Stassi make the team
Valentin being optioned to AAA.
I presume theywill have to DFA Luis Garcia.

[Lawman]

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

[Squire]

Ugh. I hate that. Silly if that is the cost to keep Daniel Stinkin' Nava

[Philsmania]

Matt Gelb (MattGelb)

Drafting Goeddel made considerable sense a year ago last December. Situations change and evolve though and now he probably doesn't fit into their plans. It's all about assets at this point and it may make sense to exchange him for another asset that they might have a use for sooner or later.