Non-Phillies 2023 Major League Season Discussion

[Philsmania]

no RSV in place

I think there's a vaccine for that now.

That's good.

Actually, I meant RSN since the one that served Vegas folded.

[zambonir]

We know

I don't think that's much of an obstacle though. The Knights wound up doing a local broadcast deal that stretches across five states (Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming. Montana has some Mariners and Twins fins and Utah maybe some Rockies fans but baseball could probably do the same. Also MLB probably sees this as a plus not a minus in terms of being able to just fold the A's into the league's future plans without there being an existing RSN contract (they can do a local online package without any restrictions, for instance).

[andyb]

I just assume any new team in any major sport will not have an RSN. They'll just go straight to that Padre model of making their games available on MLB.TV and cable systems directly. In 5 years none of these RSNs exist in their current form most likely.

[zambonir]

With the A's the only question is what their deal with Comcast requires. Do they have to buy it out, does moving markets automatically void it (or just call for pre-determined penalties) or does Comcast get to exercise their rights (they could make Peacock the sole online provider, for instance, or force them to do a deal with the LV NBC affiliate - though ironically that is also a Sinclair station, affiliate agreement probably doesn't mean that much to Comcast).

[Philsmania]

We know

I don't think that's much of an obstacle though. The Knights wound up doing a local broadcast deal that stretches across five states (Nevada, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming. Montana has some Mariners and Twins fins and Utah maybe some Rockies fans but baseball could probably do the same. Also MLB probably sees this as a plus not a minus in terms of being able to just fold the A's into the league's future plans without there being an existing RSN contract (they can do a local online package without any restrictions, for instance).

Don't forget that Salt Lake is now envying an MLB franchise. If one comes into existence, Vegas will really become an isolated small market. The numerous Mormon folks in those mountain states you mention may gravitate toward a SLC team.

[zambonir]

Yeah I still have trouble seeing Salt Lake rise into the Top 2 for actual expansion (vs. Nashville, Montreal, Mexico City and yeah even Portland). They are actually closer to getting a hockey team it sounds like (since there is already a building). And there are so few people in all those states that it hardly matters, in terms of the team's overall fan base. But TV is not an issue either way.

In the Athletic article Bryce talks about how hard it will be for a Vegas team to win over all the transplants, but I'm not sure that is a detriment. 1/3 of their fan base will probably be people who have them as their #2 team for a while, as well as tourists (and road fans specifically).

Seems like it's going to be at least 8-10 years before a first pitch is thrown in an expansion city.

[bkox]

Before baseball expands... they have to figure out somehow to either keep pitchers healthy or find more pitching somewhere. Already half the league cant find 5th starters. What will happen when 10 more SPs are needed

[zambonir]

Haha, 10, more like 18. For sure, this is an issue. But no indication they are worried about it.

[phillychuck]

For the supposed lack of pitching talent to be a problem, one would have to claim that the distribution of pitchers is somehow different than the distribution of position players (hitters) with respect to ability. That is not the case, since the is no huge excess of hitting in the upper minors with respect to pitching. If baseball expanded by 20 teams (thought experiment, not a proposal), every team would have comparably worse pitching and hitting once the "promoted" talent came to equilibrium. Not having enough pitching is not a reason to oppose expansion. I'm personally neutral about it.

[andyb]

It really feels like the trend of higher velocity in pitching is just leading to a higher injury rate. Which means all teams are going one or two pitchers deeper than they did 5 years ago. Pitching analytics are mainly designed for enhanced performance, not health and availability.

[phillychuck]

Agree this is a problem, however if pitching quality overall is decreasing we whole see the better hitters setting lots of personal records based on facing AAA-ish pitching more often. Overall trends are not showing that.

No one wants to see lots of shoulder injuries and TJ surgeries. The next analytical trend to be exploited might be pitcher health.

[andyb]

I guess one thing that might seem like the situation is worse than reality is that teams have decided that bullpen games are not necessarily a bad thing. The Phillies are simply not calling up a bad starter (Falter or Sanchez or Plassmeyer) to fill a role that they think the bullpen is better at covering.

We are simply not giving Ben Lively a bunch of starts this year. Even if Covey is really this year's Ben Lively, we just don't let him pitch too much.

[flyers19rw]

A smart club would find a way to take advantage of the BP game. The old Orioles regime, today's Cardinals and others have used the BP as a way to work in young pitchers that they want to eventually see as starters. Using McGarry, Abel, Song, or Painter as a BP candidate to go three or four innings per outing might be an intelligent way of breaking them into the show. They don't necessarily have to be the opener either as AZ did this last series.

[Philsmania]

Raise the mound back to it's '60's height?

[zambonir]

I think the Phillies are totally open to this, but none of those pitchers are quite ready for even that role. Painter could be once he actually completes his rehab. McGarry was being groomed for bullpen work last September but stumbled. Song needs to be babied/limited. Abel, we'll see. Might be something for them to think about next year but right now I'm not sure, even with the quantity, that they could afford to count on any of it to the point where they don't add to the rotation at the deadline.

And really Sanchez and Falter and Plassmyer are the young pitchers helping out, whether as chunk relievers or depth starters. They just aren't succeeding, and will now end their time as older prospects

[phillychuck]

I'm shocked Falter isn't at least pitching to a 5.00 ERA or so. I think he's hiding an injury. He was tricky to hit last year, this year it looks like BP.

[zambonir]

I mean, if the book on him is that he doesn't have stuff but his delivery/arm slot is deceptive can't you just no longer be deceptive once people have seen you enough?

He was also very carefully used last year, though I suppose you mean he's also struggling in AAA.

[phillychuck]

Yes, based on major and minor league results his stuff isn't the same as it was previously. That's not based on deception, especially with the minor league guys.

[zambonir]

But I thought the whole thing about him was his stuff wasn't that good.

[phillychuck]

It wasn't great before, now it seems to be even less good. He was effective because he had just enough stuff and hit his spots. Not doing either this year.