Let's say a player on a first place team in March/April is hitting over .400 with 10 home runs, more than an RBI per game, an OBP over .500, and and an OPS over 1.4. He is going to win the MVP, right?
No, because that's not Aaron Judge, whose March/April OPS was "only" 1.282. The player above is Tony Perez in 1970, who finished 3rd in MVP voting that year. He cooled off. Judge probably will, too.