Minor League Games - Sunday, September 2, 2018

bigegypt0417 2018-09-05 18:11:28 UTC #21

I think you're asking a question I'm not asking...so yelich has a great hit tool with career numbers of 294 average and even if moniak can replicate his recent performance his is still "average at best"

flyers19rw 2018-09-05 18:55:15 UTC #22

Comparing Moniak's stats this season with those of Yelich in 2012, when I believe he was in the FSL, needs at bit more info for comparison. In 2012 the League average for BA was .255; OBP was.326; OPS was .699; there were 5,116 BBs and 11,475 Ks. For this year the BA was .252; the OBP was.323; OPS was .691 with 4,944 BBs and 12,604 Ks. The offense was down across the board in'18 from '11. Perhaps if Moniak's was facing the '12 opponents that Yelich did, his numbers would look a lot better. This year the FSL was really a pitchers league. Taking that into consideration, Moniak's second half performance deserves more credit than he is being given.
Corrected to show FSL stats in 2012, not 2011.

andyb 2018-09-05 19:00:23 UTC #23

No again. I am applying a scouting standard to Moniak's best performances, understanding where those performances fall on the performance expectations of those scouting standards.

Average does not mean average for the FSL, it means average for the major leagues. Compared to other major league hitters and their performance in the FSL at the same age as Moniak.

You may insist that the last two months are better than that. But they are not. Major league hitters with above average hit tools do better in A+ ball than Moniak has, even in his last 2 months.

Take Cornelius Randolph for example. He had a month in Clearwater last year with a 311/417/472 slash line. Moniak is a better prospect because of the defense and speed, but if we isolate the hit tool it is hard to see Moniak as really better. Same age, parks, and level.

Instead of just complaining and saying Moniak is great, why don't you tell us who he is comparable to at the same age/level as we agree (I think) that even his best ain't Yelich quality? What evidence do you actually have that Moniak has an above average hit tool now? MLB.com grades it at 50 now. Keith Law would likely grade it worse than that. Is there anyone out there with a current scouting report that would grade it much better?

bigegypt0417 2018-09-05 19:15:24 UTC #24

I asked you a very simple question...if he was able to sustain the same lines going forward would you still say his hit tool would be "average at best"

That was the specific question and now we're getting in scouting based on his previous struggles.

We were comparing Yelich and Moniak and those numbers were similar...one has a great hit tool and the other is average at best. That's the conversation and what I'm asking.

I didn't say moniak is great...I asked you to explain another narrative built to exclude most things to make your point.

andyb 2018-09-05 19:28:59 UTC #25

A hitter with an above average hit tool would hit better in A+ ball than Moniak. That is the answer to your simple question.

And no, the Yelich numbers are nowhere near similar. Yelich had a 404 OBP for the year. He hit .367 with a 431 OBP in his August (2012). Moniak had a .355 OBP in his best month. Those numbers are just not similar. Not in the same ballpark even. So if you are saying Moniak is similar than you ARE saying he is great. I am saying his hit tool is average. One would expect above average A+ ball performance from a hitter with a major league average hit tool. That is what Moniak did for a couple of months. Good for him. But it still does not suggest an above average major league hit tool.

I just don't think you understand what a major league average hit tool is. Show me some comparables of players you think he is similar to at the same age/level. On the current Phillies roster Herrera may be the most comparable in terms of a hit tool. His hit tool is in the 50-55 range. His A+ ball performance is close to Moniak. A big difference though is that he took a major step forward a couple of years after that. We don't know if Moniak has that type of improvement in him yet.

I have laid out my comparables. Instead of complaining, how about laying out yours. That would be a more productive discussion.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-05 19:46:26 UTC #26

Productive?

Most of your arguments seems to require you moving the goalposts...somehow in your argument Moniak continuing to produce at a similar level would mean no actual change in his "tool". You actually said that Moniak going forward hitting in the 300's would not change his hit tool.

andyb 2018-09-05 19:53:23 UTC #27

No again. His performance the last couple of months is what one might expect from an average major league hit tool. There are no moving goalposts. If Moniak is a .300 major league hitter he would do much better than that in A+ ball even at age 20.

What has Moniak done to show he has an above average hit tool lately? Still waiting on any semblance of answer to that.

bigegypt0417 2018-09-05 20:06:40 UTC #28

We were comparing those numbers to Yelich. Who has a great hit tool but I'm assuming you're taking in to consideration his current walk rate? I don't really understand how you explain things but you definitely have a "keith law" quality to how you dig in your heels to make your point.

Over his last 200+ PA's his slash line is 312/365/487

That is a significant jump forward for a player who was essentially lost 3 months ago. you can shoot down what you like since that's your thing these days...basically on anything Phillies.