Minor League Games - Saturday, August 4, 2018

[Austinfan]

Hoskins is in a completely different world from Cozens, all one has to do is watch them hit.

Cozens has a really huge home/away split - that makes sense in Reading, but in Lehigh? He had that split last year as well. He also has a huge L/R split, bigger than last season.
Cozens is currently on a hot streak, but I want to see a few months, not a few weeks, he upped both his hits and walks in July, but his K rate is still extremely high.
However, where he steadily declined last season, he's improved as this season has progressed.

I have no idea if Meneses is for real, but he's steadily improved this year. The fact that his walk rate has climbed the last month or so suggests they've been working on him becoming more selective. He also has had a big power jump, and Lehigh isn't a great hitter's park, so something is going on there (his home/away split (.703/1.121).

He has struggled his first year jumping to a new level at A, A+ and AA, the last two the falloff was primarily due to a drop in BABIP, while he has a high BABIP at Lehigh, it's not much different than what he posted in AA.
When he jumps a level, his BB% declines, but his K% doesn't appreciably increase.

Meneses has played LF and RF, including 20 starts in RF this season for Lehigh.

Cozens has over 2800 minor league PA, Meneses has 2600+, both are physically mature.

[zambonir]

The best thing for Walding would probably be to get left off the 40 again because even if he made the Phillies it would take him three years to get 600 ABs. But for sure, just being LH gives him and Cozens more utility with the Hoskins/Santana line-up. Clearly there is little place for a Ross Gload (or even Matt Stairs) on a four-man bench Gabe Kapler team.

[andyb]

Cozens has a really huge home/away split - that makes sense in Reading, but in Lehigh? He had that split last year as well. He also has a huge L/R split, bigger than last season.

Gee, you said a split in Reading was evidence of him not being a prospect. But a split in LHV (where he has a 1000+ OPS in a much better pitcher's park) is evidence also that he is not a prospect. Something does not compute there. Maybe all these splits are SSS and the kid is just more comfortable at home and is continuing to mature.

And Cozens is an actual OF (not great, but legit) while Meneses looks like he was moved away from the OF to 1B as he matures. Maybe that happens too for Cozens but for now he is likely better out there.

We get that you love Hoskins and Hoskins is legitimately good. But he is barely a 2 WAR player as an outfielder because his defense is awful. That is kind of an undeniable fact that you keep glossing over. Nothing against Hoskins, but an average defensive OF with a 750-775 OPS is probably a better overall LF than Hoskins is.

[Austinfan]

Hoskins is improving as an OF, he was totally lost his first month out there.
Nor is Cozens a great OF, or Williams for that matter.
Quinn has a bright future as a defensive replacement, and if Haseley continues to hit, a wide open path to becoming a starter.

Cozens' Lehigh split is just weird, his L/R split is probably an inability to pick up sliders from LHPs.

Cozens has an extremely high K rate, for him to make it, he has to be extremely disciplined as a hitter, because he can't afford to give up strikes swinging at pitches outside the K-zone.
Hoskins is simply a far superior hitter, short compact stroke, great plate discipline, is learning to hit to all fields.

[andyb]

Again, there is no evidence that Hoskins is improving as an OF. Only your observation. What managers say in the newspaper is not evidence because they are paid to say things are always great.

Cozens and Williams do not have to be great defensively either to be better than Hoskins defensively. Williams is below average but that is better than Hoskins. Cozens is more of an unknown but again, he is a true OF with more speed than Hoskins so he is likely better.

And once again you keep trying to knock Cozens because he is different than Hoskins. At no point have I claimed he is better than Hoskins. Even in the minors all I noted was that at certain points like in Reading where their stats were equal and Cozens was a year younger while having more defensive value. All true. Now Hoskins got better offensively so now he should be considered better. But all that is completely separate from seeing Cozens post an almost 900 OPS in AAA and now having the resume that is almost as good as Hoskins (and being a year younger, it is only fair to compare him this year to Hoskins last year).

Cozens is not Hoskins, but he is a better OF so the result of putting him there might be close since Hoskins is truly bad out there. And Cozens being 2 years younger than Meneses (and left-handed and more of a true OF) are reasons why he should be valued more than Meneses. The mystery is why you try to deny these facts to slam Cozens. You definitely said his Reading split was a reason he should not be considered a prospect while today saying his LHV split (where the good performance is in the bad offensive park) is also a reason to not consider him a prospect. The only thing weird is the logic there. All at bats count. Maybe Cozens is a platoon player long term, but that still does not mean his total stats are worth ignoring which is what you imply.

Hoskins is a better hitter. But he is not playing 1B or DH. It is not his fault that he has hugely negative defensive value there. It is his GM's fault for forcing that move. You just can't ignore defense completely when you evaluate performance like you do. When you say Hoskins is a superior hitter that is of course true. But that was not the question in the first place.

[nycphils]

I think it is reasonable conjecture to say that there is less evidence that Cozens can be effective in the majors than Meneses, and he is demonstrably worse than Hoskins ever was as a hitter.

For example:

Hoskins AAA - 475 ABs, 75 K

Cozens AAA this year - 234 ABs, 100 K (13 K in 19 ABs in MLB this year)

Meneses AAA this year - 390 ABs, 86 K

Cozens K% is so high in AAA that I think it is a reasonable position to say that Hoskins is a far superior hitter, and to be skeptical of Cozens in spite of his OPS. OPS is important as a measuring stick in the minors, but it isn’t everything.

[andyb]

The two years of age versus Meneses make a big difference, as do the scouting reports of more power, the better walk rate, and the likely better defense. Once again also, the question was never whether Cozens was a better hitter than Hoskins. The only question was that if you consider Hoskins' AAA stats last year at age 24 of being prospect-worthy, then what Cozens is doing this year is also prospect-worthy. There is no guarantee that Cozens will make it, but the odds of him doing so over Meneses are better because he is 2 years younger and has more defensive value.

Then there is a separate question of Hoskins' outfield defense. Simply put it is terrible. It is not his fault, but he has -2.2 dWAR in the outfield. The Phillies would probably be a better team with Hoskins at 1B and a 750 OPS outfielder who plays average defense in LF (let alone a good defensive outfielder). There is lots of evidence for both of these points.

[nycphils]

Prospect worthy is a pretty vague standard - yes I think Cozens can be characterized as a prospect, but his horrific K rate 2 years in a row at AAA makes me believe he’ll never be able to stick in the majors. YMMV.

Hoskins is bad at defense by available measures. I don’t think that can be denied. However, what is an open question is what data is Klentak seeing that suggests it doesn’t matter enough to avoid Hoskins in the OF - the fact that 1/3 (almost) of ABs against the Phils pitchers end in a K? Something else (positioning data? Something else?)

We just don’t know - but I think it is safe to say the FO has concluded that defense isn’t as important as it is made out to be. Need to factor that in to your analysis.

[phillychuck]

One more Joey Meneses comment...after a good game today, he is .003 BA points from leading the IL in all three triple crown categories.

He's first in OPS, and Walding is 1 point behind in second.

[tom81]

We just don’t know - but I think it is safe to say the FO has concluded that defense isn’t as important as it is made out to be. Need to factor that in to your analysis.

Relying on bbref for player evaluations may not give relevant information either. FanGraphs calculates Hoskins WAR at 2.5 in about 440 PAs so almost a 4 WAR player for a year in which he is learning a new position on the fly. Some on this board continue to undervalue his actual worth.

[Austinfan]

Like I've said, i don't know if Meneses is for real, but there's a small group of players that take off around 26 years old.
Donaldson struggled in AAA ball at 25, then turned it on at age 26.

If Meneses was 28 with 2-3 AAA seasons, I'd say he's just an older minor league hitter who finally learned how to hit AAA pitching after a couple years of exposure, there's always 3-4 of these guys in AAA ball each year.

But he's 26, never was above AA ball, and has really taken off the last month or so after a solid start.
So he's made adjustments on the fly, which is one of the attributes of a potential ML hitter.

Only one way we'll know if he's for real, it'll be interesting to see if the Phillies make room for him on the 40 man roster so they can bring him up in September.

[LoneStarPhan]

Trevor Plouffe has cleared waivers and has been outrighted to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

While I don't really see him returning to the ML club this season, he could be one of the players who gets signed as a minor league free agent to a minor league contract for 2019. The Phillies, as do most clubs, add such players to the minor league system each season. Players such as Plouffe add needed protection for the big club to fill needs arising during the season due to injuries or other factors.

[zambonir]

It would be a nice story if the Phillies could find a place for Meneses but they still have to find spots for Eickhoff and Florimon, and even putting Plouffe back on the 40 and giving him some service time/$ wouldn't be uncalled for. And Walding it still on it. Can Lively go on the 60?

[andyb]

Like I've said, i don't know if Meneses is for real, but there's a small group of players that take off around 26 years old.
Donaldson struggled in AAA ball at 25, then turned it on at age 26.

So if any other 26-year-old in the history of baseball makes it then Meneses must be a great prospect? That seems to be your logic.

All I have said about Meneses is that the track record of 26-year-olds who suddenly have a good season in AAA is not that great. And the offensive bar is pretty high for RH first basemen. And that his stats are pretty similar to younger players like Cozens and Walding who have more defensive value (and scouts see as better prospects).

All of that is true. As are your innumerable posts of older players putting up great stats at levels where they are too old (Listi's 810 OPS in AA when he turns 25 in November is a little less impressive after a month or so). Context and perspective are important in evaluating prospects. Never said Meneses could never make it. Just what he has done is not that impressive in context and he is behind other better prospects.

[Slinging_Southpaw]

I think the most eye opening thing about this, is that he's doing it while playing for Lehigh Valley. If he was doing this at Reading, I'd say, this is more about the ballpark. Meneses is actually hitting poorly at Lehigh Valley and killing the ball away from home.
One thing that seems a little odd to me, if he has made some kind of adjustment, is that it hasn't affected any other numbers. His walk ratio, to strikeouts is pretty much the same as usual, it's just his power numbers that have spiked.

[Austinfan]

A number of players have seen their power numbers spikes after adjusting their swing angle.
Like I said, we just don't know, but if he keeps it up, someone is going to give Meneses a shot next season.
He'll just have to find a GM who isn't obsessed with age.

[phillychuck]

Meneses is pulling the ball a little more, not popping out as much, and hitting about 10% fewer ground balls and 10% more fly balls. That should lead to a few more HRs. And he was 25 when the season started, so he's a "young" 26.

Let me be clear again, I'd love to see him get a chance, but I think it would be very hard to fit him into the Phils' bench. His best bet is an AL team that can carry him as a DH/1B/occasional OF. The Phils did play him in RF which is the harder of the two corner OF positions, so maybe he can play the OF at least a little.

[zambonir]

It'd be great for the guy if he's the next Brandon Moss but the Phillies' situation is very different now than it was then. RH 1B/DHs just aren't that valuable these days. You might think a savvy, cash-strapped AL team would have asked about him at the deadline if they were. It sounds like the team has a really good relationship with him so it's possible he returns to the organization next year on a minor league deal (perhaps with an opt-out). But business is business, and it's still hard to see how he could get onto the 40 this year, especially when they might also want to be adding pitchers.

[Philsmania]

It would be great to see Meneses get a call up in September but I don't know if they could pull that one off without putting him on the forty man roster and losing somebody on waivers.

[kmc1019]

Random observations from attending the 2nd Williamsport game on Saturday:

1) I live in Philly and make an annual trip to Williamsport. I highly encourage folks to go visit. Great little town, beautiful country built around the river, $8 bucks for front row seats to see future Phillies at a stadium with history and charm

2) Jake Holmes did not do much on Saturday, but he physically reminded me of a slightly shorter version of Scott Rolen. More than any other position player, his frame was easiest to envision as a major leaguer. For whatever that's worth.

3) I did not see a radar gun reading, but James McArthur's fastball was better than any other pitcher that night and the opposing team could not really touch him. Secondary stuff was mediocre. Big and tall righthander. Reminded me of Spencer Howard whom I saw at Williamsport last year, though I think Howard throws harder.

4) Lenin Rodriguez caught. Build like a fireplug, has a cannon. Like most Williamsport hitters, did not impress with the bat.

5) Of any Williamsport hitters, only 1B Edwin Rodriguez - lefthanded hitter, probably slight for 1B at 6'1", 170 - hit the ball hard each time up.

6) The box scores had me excited about seeing Pelletier and Aklinski, but - sample size of one game - they looked like low ceiling, corner outfield types. I had it in my head that Pelletier was a sweet swinging lefty, but he is actually right-handed.

7) Was selfishly disappointed not to see Alec Bohm, whose first pro month underwhelmed and seemingly has a lost season after being hit by a pitch.