Minor League Games - Saturday, April 28, 2018

[zambonir]

It's not like Moniak was a stretch pick at the time. It was part of a larger strategy, but nobody debated that he was one of the 10 BPAs. And my memory is everyone was scared of the pitchers.

As the GM Klentak is of course accountable but I don't agree that it's insignificant that he was only there for six months, especially when he explicitly said he wasn't going to make any major changes that first year. He was relying on several years of scouting reports from the previous regime, and had no analytics department of note (let alone one he helped shape) and, it seems, leaned on the old guy advisors. That he might have personally gone to see some players in the three months he had to do so is not the same thing as scouting players (and working with your scouting department) for several years, especiallly wrt college players.

Of course we don't get to ever hear or learn much about how the scouting department works, though we know there have been a lot of changes and additions by now. I would like to think Almaraz and Klentak still rely on the scouts heavily, even in the first round. I would at least like to think Klentak is more likely to do so than Amaro and Gillick were. Wolever wasn't good but it still feels like he got fired to give Ruben cover (at least it didn't work).

[Philsmania]

Supposedly, Woelever got fired for ratting Wetzler/Holmes and Monda to the NCAA, not so much for the scouting department's failings. Montgomery was incensed by the breach of the gentlemen's agreement which governed contacts with amateurs. Right move for the wrong reason.

[zambonir]

That surely didn't help his cause, but that draft was in 2013 and the public airing of the incident was during 2014 spring training. Didn't stop him from running the 2014 draft and he didn't get fired until the end of the season. He said at the time that the entire front office knew about it, and really, that kind of vindictiveness sounds exactly like Amaro (or maybe Green). Monty was also already on leave from the team when it happened.

[Philsmania]

Interesting discussion here. That begs the question are our scouts getting things wrong (in which case Almaraz should be on the hot seat) or is something wrong with the way we develop guys once we sign them (in which case, Jordan should be on the hot seat)?

One thing about Almaraz, I recall hearing that when we hired him, international talent was his forte with the Braves. Interesting to note that at least on the pitching side, our better prospects tend to be Latin American. Is scouting domestic talent a blind spot for him?

[zambonir]

Yes, Almaraz had Sal's job with the Braves, he hadn't scouted domestic players since 2007, when he'd worked for the Reds.

But he has no role in scouting or signing the Phillies' international players, except maybe informally, any more than Sal would be found at some college ballpark in Arizona. He and Sal are both "directors" serving under the GM and Assistant GMs (whereas Wolever actually had the Assistant GM title).

As did Chuck Lamar, who was replaced by Jordan.

To me, the fact that Klentak did not clean house much at all at the higher levels - he kept Proefrock, Almaraz, Jordan, Sal, and Ondo - suggests that those positions are not as important as we think they are. The philosophy and direction is set from the top (where he did hire a few new Assistant GMs) and the scouts and analysts are the "talent" and the directors just have to be good managers who can execute the GM's wishes. Of course there can be disagreements and incompatibility but if that was they case with any of them they'd be gone.

[allentown]

Well, we are very unlikely to have a great draft or international season, since we lack a 2nd and 3rd round draft pick and have never shown a desire to trade for/buy one of the compensatory picks. Likewise, we are in the smallest international pool category, based upon revenue, and have had that allocation further reduced by the two comped FA signings. We can buy/trade for an additional 75% of our reduced allocation, but that still puts us at a disadvantage to other teams.

All of that makes the 1.3 crucially important. We can hope for some future MLB relievers or bench guys, maybe even a guy who turns out much better than expected for low $, as Howard, Altherr, and Hoskins did, but we are in a very disadvantaged position, except for that top pick. Without a 2 or 3, there is reduced draft flexibility.

Yes, a lot of guys are off to brutal starts. I put them into two different categories. On the one hand are the guys, like Medina, who have taken some lumps but have a good prior history. Then there are guys like Moniak/Randolph/Haseley who have yet to stand out in any season. Moniak has an abysmal .487 OPS. That might be partly down to whatever injured DL sidelined him, but last year's .625 OPS with .284 OBP was merely bad, so a return to that level of performance does not make him a strong prospect. His GCL draft year performance, with a .340 OBP and ..749 OPS, while not spectacular, was at least encouraging. All and all, what stands out is the very poor OBP he has shown last year and the first month of this year, raising the possibility that his great hit tool was a figment of the scout's imagination -- that is a draft fail. Yes, he was widely regarded as not a 1.1, but at least a top 10 going into the draft. How much did speed and CF defense drive that assessment?

After doing well with the bat in GCL in 2015, Randolph's numbers in 2016, and 2017 were very unimpressive for a LF/1B only player, before he fell to awful stats the first month of this year. If I assume he rights the ship and puts up the sort of mediocre numbers he did in 2016 and 2017, he is still not an MLB starter, so this really isn't small sample size -- it's now 2 seasons plus a month. Haseley's numbers were mediocre last season and are a little worse at the start of this year. So... all 3 of these guys have had a very challenging April, but none of their bad performances began this year. None of them has ever looked like an impact major leaguer. Is it scouting or is it development. They all looked better in their SSS draft year than they do now. They were all supposedly chosen for their plus hit tool, yet they've all had changes to their swing/bulk. The scouting staff wanted hit tool, which was or wasn't ever really there. The development staff is looking for more power. Are they on the same page?

[EDmuch]

I am glad I started this discussion. Very interesting stuff. Confirms my impressions of how we have thrown away our top pics several years in a row.