Minor League Games - August 13, 2024

[phillychuck]

z, I see your points, but if you present this as a choice to a 22-year-old, prideful, ego-driven, testosterone-fueled athlete, it's not really a choice. The only outcome will be, "I'll battle through this, coach. Oorah!"

[zambonir]

Well, sure, but do you think Mattingly and Dombrowski were oblivious to that? If they didn't want it to be a choice they wouldn't have made it one.

Dave Dombrowski, the veteran executive who oversees the Phillies, took a 70-mile trip to Coca-Cola Park to watch Abel in late May. Mattingly joined Dombrowski. Abel allowed six runs on six hits and four walks in 4 1/3 innings. His ERA sat at 6.21.

Mattingly sat down with Abel soon after. The Phillies offered Abel a chance to press pause, to spend time at the club’s Florida complex. He could work in an environment that shrouded him from weekly failure. Abel declined.

“Mick was very passionate about pitching and pushing through this and working and learning,” Mattingly said. “So, we felt it was the right thing to do.”

Abel should eclipse 100 innings for the third straight season, a consequential milestone in this version of minor-league baseball. He said he was just being honest with Mattingly.

“He welcomed that with open arms,” Abel said. “And I’m very thankful that he did. Sure, I’d thought about taking a pause. Being like, ‘Hey, I need to take time to work on stuff.’ But I’d much rather go through the struggle of failing at this level than not pitch. Because pitching is what I love to do.”

[phillychuck]

Yeah, I read Abel's response which, to me, sounded like macho posturing, but I admit I might be wrong.

Having worked with athletes that age, I can't imagine any of them welcoming a "pause" like the one offered by the Phils. It would seem like giving up or quitting. In the end, the Phils did force him to Florida for a week in early August. I bet that wasn't a choice...

[zambonir]

I don't know that they actually sent him to Florida.

[phillychuck]

Yeah, maybe they just skipped a start or two...

[Matt_Winkelman]

He didn't skip a start at all. He pitched July 30, was put on the dev list and then was the probable starter for August 7 before rain outs force it to August 9. He probably got an extra bullpen of work and 2 days more rest than usual and they got a AAA roster spot for a week.

They would have actually shut him down if things had actually gone in a worse direction. Instead you see month over month increases in velocity, tweaks to his release point, changes in pitch usage and shapes. Essentially you see a player engaged in working through issues. When you send a guy down not to pitch you risk breaking them further because you are taking away the thing that they identify with, it is why injury rehab, especially Tommy John, is so grueling because the mental aspect becomes something entirely different.

[flyers19rw]

We need to be careful with our expectations regarding Painter. Just because he's missed a season doesn't mean that he's going to be ready for the show next year. Returning from TJ surgery takes time and has its ups and downs. Walker Buehler is currently on the comeback trail and it hasn't been overly positive as of yet. Granted that he is coming off of his second TJ operation but still patience is needed with these guys.

[andyb]

I think getting 80-100 innings out of Painter next year (at all levels) is a reasonable expectation if every step in his rehab goes well (admittedly an unknown).. Remember he did not have his surgery at the beginning of 2024 since he delayed it during 2023 He had the surgery at the end of July so by the beginning of April 2025 it will have been 20 months since his surgery.

I hope they do a slow ramp up and start him late with a few starts in warm weather Clearwater in May before hitting the Northeast and the upper rungs of the minor around late May or early June. Then it depends on how well he pitches, whether he stays in the minors or there is an opportunity in the majors in a month or two.

This is not an aggressive timeline which would be more of the 12-14 month variety which you see when the pitcher gets hurt in Spring Training or April and comes back the next season..

[BaseballCat]

Don’t think I said anything about Painter coming off TJ surgery. I was discussing his movement before injury. I hope they take it slow next year with projection for 2026. Back to Abel, I still believe in him, but I hope he discovers how to reduce his walk rate.

[RTaylor]

I watched the broadcast of Abel's latest start, and it's still easy to see the potential, even though he obviously doesn't have great command yet. I've changed my mind after more or less giving up on him.

[andyb]

I don't think we should count on Painter for any major league innings next year. Abel too though Abel is clearly on a trajectory to be the 6th or 7th starting option out of Spring Training if all goes well. As for Painter, I plan for next year as if I am getting nothing - and if he does give us 2-3 major league months it is a nice bonus.

It is totally reasonable to think Painter can get to the majors next year and contribute and maybe even be special. But I am just not counting on that and will plan to have 5 starters and at least one Turnbull type arm ahead of both him and Abel as we go into next season.

[zambonir]

Which is also why they still need to keep trying with Walker. They can also still keep Allard, Phillips and Covey if they want. I assume Turnbull will move on, so yeah, another Turnbull type might be in the cards. Or they could go bigger, accompanied by either a trade (Sanchez or unloading Walker) or the inevitability of letting Ranger go.