Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

zambonir 2017-07-21 20:31:55 UTC #62

Yeah but it's also not the NBA draft in that having the top pick carries throughout a much longer draft, though at least the pool differences are less extreme now.

I agree being third wouldn't really matter. Being sixth would. But I'm not overly concerned. And agree that feeling like you can count on Nick Williams (or Franco and Herrera for that matter) is probably as important as picking higher. Though I also figure they will lose a couple of games overall w/o Neshek and Hellickson.

allentown 2017-07-21 20:33:33 UTC #63

Some years it is very like the NBA draft. You get Harper, or you don't. Hard to say at this point in time what the 2018 draft will be like.

bkeich 2017-07-21 20:43:28 UTC #64

I really want #1. There is a huge difference in slot for the first few picks.

It isnt the player you pick in that slot that is all that difference, it is the ability to add 2-3 extra HS players (high risk, high ceiling, zero floor) that makes a difference.

zambonir 2017-07-21 20:44:13 UTC #65

And some years you take Appel and the next team takes Bryant.

All things being equal I absolutely want the first pick, for every reason (the pick itself, the second round, the pool, the Rule V). But I wouldn't make any moves with that in mind. I also wouldn't not make any moves with that in mind (such as trading Galvis, or Neris).

It's possible the Phillies will be a better team on August 1, if all goes well (i.e. they are buying as well as selling). It's also possible that if they trade Hellickson and Joseph that their replacements will hit some normal bumps and the .333-.400 pace will hold.

@bkeich it's not as huge as it used to be w/ the new CBA. Last year the gap between #1 and #3 was $1 million. The year the Phillies picked first it was $2.5 million. And if there is actually a clear #1 player to take (unlike in 2015), you probably don't have any money to play with anyway.

allentown 2017-07-21 20:50:58 UTC #66

I'm not advocating the trades to lock down the 1.1.

I make the moves because:
- with Crawford, Galvis is redundant and to trade next season is to waste a 40-man spot this winter
- with Alfaro out of options, Rupp or Knapp has to go (or, I guess Alfaro himself, if the team likes him least best)
- Neris and Hellickson and Nava and Kendrick have to go, because they won't be back next season and it's foolish to spend $64 million, then let our one-year FA just become FA again
- these trade all make sense now, because I think the return is highest now. The trades add strength to the farm and free 40-man slots, which we need.

Do games one with guys who will either walk away for free or not be our starters in 2018 really indicate a stronger 2018 team? I don't think so.

I see value in having the AAA prospects get their feet wet in Philly in this low-pressure season.

I see a lot of value in having the 1.1.

bkeich 2017-07-21 20:52:14 UTC #67

I thought it was still bigger, but I knew it shrunk. It is still worth it, with that extra $1M you should get 1-2 extra HS players from what you would have gotten otherwise. Quantity is important.

bkox 2017-07-21 20:54:54 UTC #68

Manny Machado (3rd overall) and Chris Sale (13th overall) have a higher career WAR then Harper from that same draft. Harper and Machado will probably be close most of their careers assuming each stay healthy.

And interestingly enough.. looking at drafts from 1995-2010, no 1-1 leads the players taken in the first round in WAR. The closest is Joe Mauer who is slightly behind the now retired Texiera and will probably over take him.
Alot of years a player taken in the teens is the overall best based on WAR... such as the 2000 draft where Chase Utley, taken at 15, is head and shoulders above the rest

julio 2017-07-21 20:54:59 UTC #69

Hector Neris? He came into this season with 1 year, 104 days of service time. He's nowhere near free agency - he may or may not even qualify for Super-2 arbitration.

I assume you meant Pat Neshek?

allentown 2017-07-21 20:56:23 UTC #70

Oops. Yes, that is correct.

zambonir 2017-07-21 21:21:02 UTC #71

I'm just saying, if you wanted to tank, trades might help (though they might not, what if Crawford came up and Knapp continued to play well in more action?).

In the other thread someone posted a rumor that Klentak is looking to acquire a controllable starter. Presumably he'd be an upgrade over Hellickson (and certainly an upgrade over Lively). If that's the reason they slip to 2 or 3 I'm certainly okay with that.

teabag259 2017-07-21 21:30:01 UTC #72

I think #1 overall next year could be very important because if Brady Singer continues to look like he has and develop he is a sure fire top pick and a guy that could possibly join the rotation as early as September.

fish 2017-07-24 15:01:11 UTC #73

I'm curious why Seth Beer has limited mobility. BA actually described him as being as limited as David Ortiz- but Beer is one chiseled, svelt dude. He doesn't seem hobbled when he moves- so is it athleticism, a nagging injury, or something degenerative? Otherwise, the bat is on the money value for the top of the draft.

Dirk41 2017-07-25 06:09:33 UTC #74

I also don't understand this. If Schwarber can play in the outfield, Beer can be a first baseman.

DougLindsay 2017-07-25 15:43:52 UTC #75

Schwarber can't play the OF, even though the Cubs play him there.

Squire 2017-08-21 15:39:12 UTC #76

Is Brady Singer not playing summer ball?

fish 2017-08-21 17:02:35 UTC #77

No. That's probably a very good thing after throwing 126 innings last year.

teabag259 2017-08-21 19:32:40 UTC #78

If we lose out on 1-1 and Singer isn't going to be our guy Ethan Hankins seems to be emerging ahead of Kumar Rocker (it's still very close) as the top high school arm. Hankins projects even more as he is 6'7 210 right now. Rocker is 6'4 240 plus. His dad is Firmr NFL player Tracy Rocker. Both RHPs sit in the mid to upper 90s.

LoneStarPhan 2017-08-22 02:34:26 UTC #79

I guess one thing about not getting the 1.1 pick is that in any draft, the best player to come out of the draft is more often than not, not the first pick. That said, getting the first pick puts the pressure squarely on the Phillies to make the best choice. If they pick in the top couple, they should be able to get a really fine player. Of course, picking first is great and it does carry on to each of the succeeding rounds.

Squire 2017-08-22 13:01:54 UTC #80

Perhaps I am in the minority, but I want the #1 pick and I do think it is important.

bigegypt0417 2017-08-22 13:11:56 UTC #81

Same here.

If you're going to stink...stink the best.