Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

Philsmania 2017-10-01 15:02:42 UTC #343

Yes, we've clinched no worse than #3 where my gut says we now end up. It now looks like the White Sox will be the ones playing themselves down to #5. If not for a good stretch in August, the Reds could have been significant players in this race.

Philsmania 2017-10-01 15:14:52 UTC #345

According to the pythagorean formula, this is how the standings should look for the 1-1. The number in parenthesis is pythagorean luck.

Padres 59-102 -- (12)
Giants 66-95 7 (-3)
Tigers 67-94 8 (-3)
Tie Phillies 70-91 11 (-5)
Reds 70-91 11 (-3)
White Sox 70-91 11 (-3)
Mets 70-91 11 (0)

teabag259 2017-10-01 15:53:20 UTC #346

I'm still holding out hope for 1-2.

zambonir 2017-10-01 18:51:27 UTC #347

I'm hoping for 1-2 as well. I mean, obviously it would be better. You get to take all but one guy (and you never know if the 1-1 team will take the BPA), you get a bit more $, etc.

But not dropping to 4th is definitely a relief. Unfortunately the Phillies were last year's pythagoreaon losers.

schooldoc 2017-10-02 00:21:06 UTC #348

So, 1/3 it is.

I was one of the people who badly wanted 1/1. At the same time, I'm satisfied with 1/3 because right now, the Phils are nowhere near the 3rd worst team in baseball. They played .500 ball over a 2 1/2 month span and were only eliminated from 1/1 contention on the 2nd to last day of the season. That's pretty remarkable when you think about it. Shows you just how awful the Phils were in May/June. But the Tigers truly tanked it in Sept. and snuck past us.

Should be able to get a terrific pitcher at 1/3. That would be my hope.

teabag259 2017-10-02 00:57:11 UTC #349

Yes but at 1-3 that pitcher will probably have to be a high school pitcher.

allentown 2017-10-02 01:16:17 UTC #350

It is what it is. TIme to be happy with and make the most of 1.3. Hopefully a very long time before we have a pick as good as or better than this one.

nycphils 2017-10-02 01:31:36 UTC #351

Early wishcasting on the Top 3 picks:

Detroit - Brice Turang (SS)
Giants - Jarred Kelenic (OF)
Phils - Brady Singer (RHP)

Could happen.

zambonir 2017-10-02 02:12:19 UTC #352

I'm happy it's not 4.

Dirk41 2017-10-02 02:13:40 UTC #353

Best case scenario

nycphils 2017-10-02 05:56:31 UTC #354

Detroit - top 4 prospects are RHP, then 2 OF and a catcher. Nothing in the IF.

Giants - for those who want Singer, this is the issue - not much in the way of pitching in the top 1/3 of their Top 30 prospects

Philsmania 2017-10-02 14:30:43 UTC #355

Final draft order from top to bottom is as follows:

Tigers (64-98)
Giants (64-98)
Phillies (66-96)
White Sox (67-95)
Reds (68-94)
Mets (70-92)
Padres (71-91)
Braves (72-90)
Athletics (75-87)
Pirates (75-87)
Orioles (75-87)
Blue Jays (76-86)
Marlins (77-85)
Mariners (78-84)
Rangers (78-84)
Rays (80-82)
Angels (80-82)
Royals (80-82)
Cardinals (83-79)
Twins (85-77)
Brewers (86-76)
Rockies (87-75)
Yankees (91-71)
Cubs (92-70)
Diamondbacks (93-69)
Red Sox (93-69)
Nationals (97-65)
Astros (101-61)
Indians (102-60)
Dodgers (104-58)

bigegypt0417 2017-10-02 15:34:03 UTC #356

I will bet 5 or 6 names will rise up the board and we'll have some very good options. I plan to watch Kelenic play this year since he's in my neck of the woods.

Philsmania 2017-10-02 16:40:36 UTC #357

Picking high school outfielders in the first round has not been a good practice for us in recent memory (Jeff Jackson, Reggie Taylor, Gregg Golson, Larry Greene, Jr. and the more recent trevails of Cornelius Randolph and Mickey Moniak).

bigegypt0417 2017-10-02 16:46:26 UTC #358

Cornelius Randolph finished the year well and was in the top 20 of his league...he's also a teenager.

Moniak is far from a writing story and the other guys were guys who could develop tools but were very raw.

All those guys were projects at best when draft.

Kelenic is far from that in terms of tools.

https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile.aspx?ID=436063

teabag259 2017-10-02 17:00:28 UTC #359

We need starting pitching regardless. We dont need outfielders right now. If Singer is off the board Hankins or Liberatore (the lefty) might be out best options.

fish 2017-10-02 17:03:13 UTC #360

BA's mock goes 1) Singer, 2) Hankins, 3) Turang.

allentown 2017-10-02 17:51:49 UTC #361

I really can't agree with that. Any H.S. OF is tools which need to be developed. Some have better tools than others and some have done considerably more to begin development of those tools than others. Kelenic is a very good H.S. prospect. I think he's a better prospect than C. Randolph, because he has more tools. But, he is from a warm-weather H.S. so that is going to make him rawer than an equally toolsy TX or CA guy. I think coming out of H.S. that Moniak was every bit the prospect that Kelenic is going into this draft. Some of the other listed H.S. guys were just too much projection on the Phillies' part. Taylor was an unfortunate warm-weather school senior fast riser, whom the Phillies swallowed all the hype on. LJG was just bad scouting. I really hate 'raw power' as the tool that gets somebody into the first round. You can find raw power in later rounds. We've done so numerous times and with guys who had better overall tools and certainly far more motivation than LGJ. I think LGJ was the most damning first round selection that the Phillies scouting guys and GM have made other than the time we drafted the wrong guy by mistake.

allentown 2017-10-02 17:54:47 UTC #362

This is good evidence of why I always want the Phillies to go 110% in talent acquisition. It's hard to go from 66 wins to a WC. We are in a division with a 97-win team and have three 100+ win teams to catch. That's a lot of very superior teams. There are also a lot of teams with excellent farms. I think the Braves are a little bit ahead of us there.

Squire 2017-10-02 18:05:46 UTC #363

It just seems like HS pitchers taken in the Top 10 picks in the last decade really haven't performed well. Maybe Hunter Greene and Mackenzie Gore will be exceptions. I'd still be tilting the board away from a HS pitcher at 1.3. Just my take.