Looking ahead to the 2018 draft

andyb 2017-05-30 17:48:53 UTC #29

Possible but unlikely. We gave up nothing substantial in the Ortiz allocation deal and the sheer number of teams in the penalty this year meant there were lots of unused slot allocations up for grabs (remember each team gets $700K to spend even before we got to the slot allocations).

The lack of trades for allocations was not likely the high price of them. It was the reality that the Padres and others were exceeding the cap this year. Most teams could not trade for allocations large enough to make it worth it. The Phillies are the exception though since they had the largest allocation. Thus we could trade for the largest allocation increase.

I think this has more to do with the Phillies old-school notion of what a $2 million prospect is worth. They probably would have needed to overpay a prospect to have used that allocation. That upsets their historic play-by-the-rules sensibilities.

zambonir 2017-05-30 20:03:21 UTC #30

But, who, organizationally makes that call, or continues to hold that belief? Seems to me it would have to be Sal, as well as Almaraz (who spent much of his career doing Sal's job for Atlanta). Middleton wouldn't even have an opinon. Now, maybe Klentak and MacPhail feel that way too, but it's hard for me to believe, given the timing and context of their arrival, that they wouldn't have signed off on the moves if their people, who they chose to keep and know more than they do in the trenches, were lobbying hard for certain players, or allocation $ in general. There are just too many variables (including what kind of deal that might have made) to know anything for sure.

Austinfan 2017-05-30 21:22:17 UTC #31

"The lack of trades for allocations was not likely the high price of them. It was the reality that the Padres and others were exceeding the cap this year. Most teams could not trade for allocations large enough to make it worth it."

That's pretty unlikely because bonuses fall rapidly once you get past the first 15-20 players and they're locked up early, so the players you'd trade allocations for were certainly affordable for every team out there, including the ones limited to $300K.

The answer may simply be that once all the $500-$1+M players are locked up, teams aren't willing to trade real prospects for allocations to sign $100K guys who are long shots.

Of the top 50 bonuses in 2016-17, only 32 were over $1M, in comparison in the 2016 draft, 70 players received bonuses over $1M (and they have less leverage). #50 was $700K.
11 of the top 18 (and 3 of the next 11) were Cubans, which reflects their age (most are much older than other LA players, so lower risk) and probably what it took to arrange these deals (as we've found out, Cuban baseball smuggling is a very corrupt operation which often involves kidnapping and extortion).

andyb 2017-05-30 22:04:01 UTC #32

There were over a dozen high priced Cuban players that became available in the last year. These were not deals that were already locked up. The Phillies chose not to spend here. The price of allocations had almost nothing to do with that decision since so many allocations went unused by teams in the penalty. They would have dealt them for a warm body if there was a market.

andyb 2017-05-30 22:13:37 UTC #33

There was one pool trade a couple of weeks ago and it looks like the O's are being cheap and dealing their slots:

Alex Katz for $750K in slots.
Damien Magnifico for $850K
Paul Fry for less than $200K.

All warm bodies. Magnifico was #11 in the Angels system which is among the worst. May not have been top 30 with us. May have been released by us even.

allentown 2017-05-30 23:30:30 UTC #34

I am fairly certain that it is Middleton and the other owners who decide how much the team will budget for the draft and international talent, then Sal and Almaraz get to decide how they will spend the budget they were given. I think it a lot more than coincidence after coincidence that in the years before fixed caps that the PHillies draft spending almost always equaled the sum of their suggested slot $. They could have exceeded that value without penalty. They could have signed 20 $100K guys after round 10 and technically not even violated the suggested guidelines. They almost never did. The team sets a budget at the annual meeting and that seems not to change, come heck or high water or the opportunity of a lifetime, like spending not all that much more than budget and for only one year to take a run at a second championship with both Lee and Halladay, rather than just salary dumping Lee. Likely Sal and Almaraz didn't have another high profile LA guy they could sell to the owners at the annual meeting. Going over budget, because Cubans became available has never been the Phillies way. The budget is sacrosanct and they don't budget to take advantage of unexpected opportunities. I'm quite sure that Sal would have signed some Cubans, had he been given the budget $ to do so.

zambonir 2017-05-31 02:55:16 UTC #35

I think Montgomery made the overall budget, which, under the previous regime, was tantamount to ownership making it, but I really don't think the other owners got involved in how the money gets spent. For a major decision like the Halladay trade or the Howard contract, sure, the GM goes to the President and they may take it to the owners.

Now MacPhail makes the budget. Given how little money they have been spending on major leaguers I find it hard to believe money is the reason they didn't take full advantage. I guess I'm just choosing to be more optimistic about their process because in truth, your version of it really does suggest they are stupid and cheap and things haven't changed. Maybe, maybe not.

allentown 2017-05-31 22:08:29 UTC #36

I think this is the specific Phillies ownership pathology. They hate spending money on amateur talent. This was Giles' thing. When his team bought the Phillies, the first thing he did was gut the scouting system and reduce spending on the minor leagues. They have been stingy on minor league bonuses ever since. I don't think Middleton is as driven by the bottom line as Giles and Middleton were -- I don't think he would have ordered Gillick to trade Burrell and his salary (became Abreu, when Burrell invoked his FNTC) to balance the budget, nor would he have dumped Pence for the same reason. Given a chance to make a really serious run at a 2nd WC, I believe Middleton would have given RAJ permission to go $9 mill over budget and go with both Lee and Halladay in their primes.

However, as of today, no indication that Middleton cares about maximizing the farm and spending an extra couple of million on under-23 international and perhap $5-10 mill on over-23 internaitonal to do so. He can be sold on spending $tens of millions on marginal vets like Kendrick and Saunders, but it seems hard-wired in the DNA of the post-Giles Phillies that you don't spend aggressively on the farm. You spend just 'enough'. You do nothing to irritate the commish. You don't seize opportunities. Good enough is good enough, even if you have the weakest team in MLB, while the Braves have the strongest farm.

It is not a question of being cheap overall. Middleton, in total, has spent about as much as is reasonable to spend this season. I don't think he's spent it wisely and he seems to have deliberately chosen not to do as much as he could on the farm. He has been an owner for a long time. He has soaked up the vibe of Giles and Montgomery.

Austinfan 2017-06-01 00:09:55 UTC #37

Notice Chicago using the slot to reduce their penalty for signing Roberts, i.e., trading marginal prospects to save money.

Dirk41 2017-06-02 19:10:57 UTC #38

Do you think Middleton says no to these things? I can't imagine that he would assemble a presumably capable front office who doesn't prioritize building the system. It just seems like common sense that they would invest on all levels and not simply go on the radio and tell the city they will invest when it's time. Bryce Harper is great but having a burgeoning team for him to join is even greater.

allentown 2017-06-02 20:26:23 UTC #39

Yeah, I think he says no to international spending. I guarantee you, if he tells Sal that he had $8 mill to spend, Sal will find a way to spend it productively. Scouts and scouting directors want to sign talent and want as much budget and leeway to act as possible. The odds of Sal telling TPTB that he didn't think it wise to get and spend an extra 50% above allocation or that he didn't think it made sense to be a player in the 23+ international market are just about nil. GMs also like to maximize talent, so I think the decision not to must have come from a higher level than the GM. This also was a change of direction, since they did trade for an extra 50% allocation to sign Ortiz and others. The difference this year is the second highest draft allocation and the highest international allocation. One or more of TPTB decided this was enough and they didn't want to devote more $ resources to international talent to spend another 50% above allocation or be players in the 23+ market. It absolutely had to be a conscious budget decision.

The history of the Phillies has always been to 'be in' on expensive talent and come up short. That's why I discount all the talk of Harper, Machado, and Trout. When the Phillies got Lee and Halladay, you didn't hear a whisper from them before hand. When they chatter, it is propaganda.

allentown 2017-06-02 20:32:42 UTC #40

In there view, he has spent enough on all levels. That he has the worst team in baseball seems insufficient reason to change the budget thinking. It doesn't make sense, but if you study the history of the Phillies franchise in acquiring amateur talent from the day the Giles team bought the Phillies from Ruly Carpenter, there has consistently been a lot of excessive thrift on the minor league level, which didn't make any sense. You can trace it from dismantling the Dominican Republic scouting system which signed Juan Samuel and many other talents and was regarded as the best in basement, to chasing Dallas Green and our best scouts out of the organization, to incomprehensible drafts heavy on slow, short, white college kids, to the J.D. Drew debacle, to the slavish adherence to Selig's suggested slots, to the refusal to play in the international over-23 market when, despite what you may think of that market today it was dirt cheap, to giving away draft picks by the dozen to sign mediocre FA, including not waiting a week to see if their teams made them the then equivalent of a QA, up to today. It is in the post-Giles DNA of the Phillies PTB to starve the farm.

zambonir 2017-06-02 23:08:29 UTC #41

It's just hard to believe $3 million or even $10 million would really be vetoed given the current levels of major league spending and TV revenue.

Also - if Sal is so great and TPTB is still so mired in the old ways, why does he still work here? Surely if the organization was truly incompetent about international spending and development, he'd want to go somewhere that would let him do more. Or, for that matter, get promoted, like Almaraz.

Conversely, if it is MacPhail and Klentak who made these calls, it wouldn't surprise me to see him leave, whether it is his choice or theirs. If he wanted to sign a bunch of guys and the new GM passed, whether for financial reasons or because they didn't listen to his evaluations, that would seem a red flag. You've also still got Benny Looper as the top international advisor.

andyb 2017-06-02 23:18:27 UTC #42

The Phillies are not incompetent internationally. We have been in the middle of spending for the past decade consistently. We have just not been one of the 10-12 clubs that have gone over the cap when we are one of the few that could have easily done so financially. That has to be frustrating, but it does not mean the Phillies are an awful place to be for an international director.

Organizations do set budgets. I doubt the international budget is really dictated by Montgomery or the higher ups. I am sure they approve an overall baseball organization budget and the GM has some latitude to fit the pieces together. There is likely an initial itemized budget with an international line item, but only the total budget should be set in stone. I have no problem with the Phillies overall budget over the years. They just should have shifted $5 to $10 million to the draft or international budgets from the major league budget.

I don't think Sal or Almaraz would leave because of budget frustration. They have decent budgets compared to their peers and they are drafting relatively high for an organization that regularly spends their draft and international allocations. It is not the best situation in baseball but likely better than average.

teabag259 2017-06-03 23:16:10 UTC #43

Seth Beer vs Kyle Wright coming up momentarily on ESPNU

teabag259 2017-06-09 01:20:48 UTC #44

Sounds like there are some big time high school arms in 2018. Kumar Rocker is already in the mid to upper 90s and considered one of if not the best,

teabag259 2017-06-14 01:47:40 UTC #46

Early 2018 high school top 10 from PG...

Rank Name Pos Ht Wt B/T HS Hometown Commitment Travel Team
1 Kumar Rocker RHP 6-4 240 R R North Oconee Watkinsville, GA Vanderbilt Team Elite Prime
Fun to watch him pitch. Everything works well easy low 90's with plenty more in there. Extremely high ceiling up to 93 at PG Jr National Up to 95 this summer. Continued to impress at Fall WWBA
2 Brice Turang SS 6-1 165 L R Santiago Corona, CA Louisiana State Playa Vista Orioles
Very athletic all around player who really projects in all phases. Really stood out at PG Evoshield and CA World Series. USA Baseball POY
3 Jarred Kelenic OF 6-1 196 L L Waukesha West Waukesha, WI Louisville Rawlings Hitters
Can really hit. Ball flies off his barrel. Outstanding all fall including MVP of WWBA Kernels. Showed big 5 tool potential at PG Junior National and PG Underclass AA
4 Joe Gray Jr OF 6-3 195 R R Hattiesburg Hattiesburg, MS Mississippi Evoshield Canes
Very impressive at PG Junior National. Huge power potential. Very impressive at Fall WWBA Events
5 Ethan Hankins RHP 6-6 200 R R Forsyth Central Cumming, GA Vanderbilt Team Elite Prime 17U
Throws very easy and big velo gains now throwing high 80's up to 90 mph with lots more in there. Now up to 94 and still easy. Up to 95 at WWBA in the fall and MVPitcher WWBA World Championship
6 Will Banfield C 6-0 200 R R Brookwood Lawrenceville, GA Vanderbilt Team Elite Prime
Outstanding defensive catcher, can really hit with big power and up to 94 mph on the mound. Very good at PG Junior National, WWBA and PG Underclass AA
7 Triston Casas 3B 6-4 238 L R American Heritage Pembroke Pines, FL Miami Elite Squad
New to 2018 class. Can really mash. Hugh power potential
8 Nolan Gorman SS 6-1 210 L R Sandra Day O`Connor Glendale, AZ Arizona Central Florida Gators
Can flat out rake and showed it at WWBA and PG Junior National. Had a great fall. Seems like he gets a hit every time up
9 Austin Becker RHP 6-6 185 R R Big Walnut Sunbury, OH Vanderbilt Evoshield Canes
Touched 96 mph at WWBA Underclass World Championship
10 Elijah Cabell OF 6-2 190 R R TNXL Academy Winter Park, FL Louisiana State Central Florida Gators
Extremely fast bat and the ball just flies off his barrel. Very fun to watch him hit. Huge power at PG Junior National. Very good at WWBA

Squire 2017-06-14 12:30:27 UTC #47

Its Mid-june and we have a 3.5 game "lead" for the #1 pick in next year's draft. Unfortunately with the slot compression that occurred any advantage is mitigated some but it would be nice to have another shot at a top player. Unfortunately without any chance at a compensation pick or a competitive balance pick we will be looking at the same situation next year at trying to float a player all the way to 37-ish.

teabag259 2017-06-15 19:28:08 UTC #48

schooldoc 2017-06-26 23:51:36 UTC #49

Singer (Florida) going tonight for Florida in CWS championship series Game 1 vs. LSU. Fastball sitting at 94 mph with wipeout slider. Reminds me of a taller, slightly harder throwing Aaron Nola.