July 2, 2019 International Signing Period

[andyb]

This is one of the reasons lots of sites added a decimal point for age in their rankings. HS players that are age 18.5 do significantly worse than players aged 17.6. This was a big issue around Blake Rutherford if I recall correctly.

WIth this prospect the Phillies were evaluating him when he was 17.5 years old playing against players 16.0 years old. So they might have overrated his tools because he had an extra 1.5 years to develop them. And they might have overrated his projection. A player 1.5 years younger might have be expected to add more power than the older player.

I am not sure Badler is saying that based on scouting observations now. It could be just repeating the scouting reports done a year ago when they thought he was younger than he actually was. I am hoping they are wrong about the bonus too. Not sure I buy the accuracy of those reports until the Phillies officially announce it.

[andyb]

Nice article about Sal and how he is taking care of his people. Confirms the $2.5 million bonus to Garcia but that seems to be the least of anyone's concerns today.

Amid shutdown, top Phillies scout pauses to dream about the...

[gmwannabe]

Oops. i an't get the article. is it a good one. Does it mention about any other players.? i guess you're right andy. there are many more important things to be concerned about.
gm

[andyb]

Not really about any other new players (it is behind the paywall). It acknowledges the recent dry spell but also notes that we were above average in international players on MLB rosters when you count players like Carrasco and Villar.

Clearly volume was a good strategy 10-15 years ago. I just wonder if it is as good now since most teams have serious Latin American operations. When only 10 teams cared it was a good strategy. Now even the Sixto Sanchez types probably cost a few hundred thousand. There just may not be too many bargains any more.

The scouting notes on Garcia are very positive. It makes the case that he still has lots of room for physical projection and that his defense in CF may be very good. Better than Rojas for instance, though with Rojas we can already see the plus power emerging. I am happy to have him in the system. Just wish we saved a million that could have gone to somebody else.

[allentown]

This article does not give me a warm feeling about the Phillies' international operation. I see this as extremely bad policy: a guy deliberately cons you and you pay him the same agreed bonus. They just placed a 'kick me' or in this case 'con me' sign on their own arses. A year older makes 150# for 6 feet tall seem that much less likely to add enough muscle mass to become an MLB hitter. We've seen the 'runs fast, plays great CF' before. He sounds like a dishonest Tocci. Our scouts/organization's passions seem to oscillate between 'runs fast' and 'great batting practice power'. It is simply incomprehensible to me that the Phillies insisted upon zero deduct from bonus after being conned and having the guy miss a whole development year with the team.

After the busts on Encarnacion and Ortiz, I'm not at all convinced that Sal and company can judge the difference between a multi-million $ bonus talent and a $400K talent. Their is zero evidence to suggest that they possess this skill.

[bkeich]

After the busts on Encarnacion and Ortiz, I'm not at all convinced that Sal and company can judge the difference between a multi-million $ bonus talent and a $400K talent. Their is zero evidence to suggest that they possess this skill.

It also seems true that for some reason we are never "in" on the top talents. I dont ever remember hearing about a top - 10 international player or Cuban that we were the "leader" when the signing period starts. It seems like we have decided to try and make do with the next level of international talent, but sometimes, like this time, we pay them like they are at or near the top of the class.

[andyb]

I consider Ortiz and Encarnacion differently. $4 million versus $1 million. At $1 million you are dealing with players ranked in the top 20 or 30 so there is greater uncertainty.

I think our only $2 million plus bonuses in Latin America for young players (i.e. not MAG) are Ortiz, Luis Garcia, and now Yhoswar Garcia. All of them have issues at this point though Ortiz still has a chance and for all we know Yhoswar Garcia could be really good. I hope he is. I just wish we got a discount so we could add that Taiwanese pitcher we were interested in also.

[allentown]

If it was a $1 million bonus today, I would agree with you, but the Encarnacion signing was in 2013 and bonuses weren't generally as big back then.

[andyb]

The high end bonuses dropped with the international pool. So there were probably just as many $2 million plus bonuses 7 years ago as there were today. Especially when teams were knowingly breaking the pool limit for a few years.

There is no way to spin Encarnacion as a good signing. But he had legit power and sometimes you buy a tool or two with these bonuses. I thought Ortiz and Luis Garcia were overpriced at the time of the signings and that was because their bonuses were ranked higher than the players were. That does not mean Luis Garcia is a bad prospect. I like him better than most. I just realize his ceiling is a good defensive shortstop that is probably in the 700-800 OPS range at his peak. That is a ceiling of a good player and not a great player.

[allentown]

But he had legit power and sometimes you buy a tool or two with these bonuses.

But that's the key point, isn't it, he did NOT have legit power. He had batting practice power. He never had game power. He had 761 minor league AB and 20 HR and a SLG of .332 in his minor league career.

[Austinfan]

A top defensive SS with a .750 OPS would be a 3-4 WAR player.
Paul DeJong, for example.
I'll pay top LA dollar if I could consistently land starters who were well above average.

[andyb]

But there are so many ifs about whether he can get there that it is too expensive. When somebody costs $2.5 million they generally have a higher ceiling. Think of it this way - he was a million more than Juan Soto, another easily identified top talent.

[el-pietro]

The atheltic are offering a free 30 day trial at the moment.

[nycphils]

“The self-assessment is important,” Agostinelli said. “I have done this for a very long time and the way everyone does it has changed. You’re looking at guys who are at a very young age. People are making earlier and earlier decisions on players. It’s hard. The bottom line is, guys are going in and seeing guys early and they (already) have a verbal agreement. Everybody is fighting over the same players. We all try to see the guys first — we have done a good job of identifying the right ones. But sometimes, a team gets a guy, and you have to give them kudos.“

What I infer from this quote - admittedly speculative - is that Agostinelli wants to get multiple looks at kids before committing big dollars because scouting 13/14 year old kids is hard, but that the process has changed with teams committing to players on limited looks and getting the verbal agreement. Ultimately that Sal is still Sal and very capable, but he’s been struggling with the new level of risk teams are willing to take and that’s what is preventing the Phillies from the kind of success they saw in LA before the last 10 years or so.

The risks teams are taking, by the way, makes sense to me because if you invest $4m in the best players you see 4 years in a row, for example, and three of them flop and one is Acuna/Soto/Devers, or a couple of them are even Cesar Hernandez, that $16m is a bargain compared to what it costs in the FA market or the cost in players to trade).

[gmwannabe]

Has anyone seen anything about the Dominican Summer league? is that off also? forgive me if it was mentioned before.
gm

[fish]

Has anyone seen anything about the Dominican Summer league? is that off also? forgive me if it was mentioned before

No baseball, no scouting. About the only thing that seems to be alllowed is to keep the Venezuelan players at the Dominican academies instead of sending them home.

[gmwannabe]

Thanks Fish for the response. stay well and also the same for all of our posters and families.
gm

[fish]

Thanks Fish for the response. stay well and also the same for all of our posters and families.
gm

Kiley McDaniel reported that mlb will allow virtual international scouting resume this week..but still no games.

[julio]

A post was split to a new topic: July 2, 2020 International Signing Period

[andyb]

Not expecting anything, but today is the official end of the 2019 J2 International signing period. This will be the first time in a couple of years I believe where we did not trade for additional allocations (and actually traded one slot in addition to losing money for Harper). I assume our class is Yhoswar Garcia, 4 or 5 prospects in the $200K-$350K range (Jean Hernandez, Randy Vasquez, Jackie Pertuz, Jeibert Silva), and then another dozen nominal signings.

If they had money in their pool remaining I am guessing they chose not to spend it this year though it is unlikely there was more than a few hundred thousand left. We would have had a little more than $4.5 million total.