July 2, 2019 International Signing Period

[allentown]

Or Sal and his scouts just aren't as good at identifying future plus major leaguers as the scouts of our competitors are. I don't think this is much of an organizational reputation market, as opposed to a 'money talks' market. As Phillies fans, we fell in love with Sal and his scouts years ago. Of late, the evidence just doesn't support the proposition that we have a plus international scouting organization. Know how the Phillies apportion bonuses over the years, our scouts had to be VERY sold on Encarnacion to spring for a $1 million bonus and over-the-moon sold on Ortiz to give a $4 mill bonus. But... we seem to go on forced scouting themes which over-look a BPA approach to draft/international. We binged on athletic speedsters and then we went on a raw power binge.

[andyb]

Almost one third of major league talent comes from international signings these days. If we have a year where our signings are way below average that is a disaster (for that one class). Just like any individual draft can be bad. While we could get lucky that the low profile signings come through, it is also very likely we get near nothing from our more expensive signings.

It is a missed opportunity that is unfortunately largely gone. Maybe we get the Taiwanese pitcher, but that probably only makes up for a bit of the missed opportunity.

[flyers19rw]

“When incompetence is a possible answer, it usually is the right answer.”-Chuck Rosenberg.
It’s time to recognize that the Phillies effort is just that. There is no reason why other clubs do better at procuring talent out of LA. They’ve hired scouts, built academies but found no outstanding prospects.

[mdougherty12]

Meh. Like to see a study of international players, and what proportion of ML Int'l players are top bonuses, and how many come out of the blue. I mean most of our best LA players weren't our big bonus spends, and I think this holds for a lot of teams. Outside of a few "can't miss" guys, I don't think the success rate for million dollar bonuses is very high.

Projecting 15 year olds (which is usually their age when committed to a team) is a fool's errand.

Fangraphs appears to have the data set for this, but they haven't done the particular analysis you want here:

We Analyzed the Value of International Signing Bonus Money

[andyb]

Interesting article that clearly shows international spending is a great investment. And as soon as bonuses started to spike, MLB capped them to make the return on investment better.

I can't find the second part of the article where they would look at individual team classes unfortunately. I suspect there is still a strong relationship with performance to signing bonus size even if that relationship is not as direct as with the draft. There are too many success stories with high bonus players for there not to be a pretty strong relationship (i.e. teams spending twice as much money get more talent from their expenditures even if it is not quite twice as much talent).

[Austinfan]

When you pay big money, like Ortiz or Morales, you need to hit big on the majority of these players.

Because Ortiz could pay for 40 100K signings, and if your scouts are any good, you should hit on a few of those 40 signings. Even if it's just a Neris, Hernandez and Suarez, the WAR start adding up.

You need to avoiding missing on the big bonus signing, but you only have to hit on a few of the smaller bonus signings.

[fish]

It’s not even “big money” guys if we are talking $1 million plus. This was a top 100 piece. Sure there will be a fair share of guys who are unknown and aren’t on that list that will become legit prospects, but a philosophy that if you crap in your hand and have diamonds if wait long enough is one that leaves you looking back 5 years later and seeing an obvious flaw.

[andyb]

One also cannot sign 40 100K players a year. You simply can't develop them properly in your system. And if the minor leagues start to contract some it will almost certainly hit the lower level signings in the DSL.

There is a level of prospect in between the top 10-20 and the 100K guys though. That top 100 list is most likely made up primarily of guys in the 200K-500K range. What is distressing is we did not seem to get any of those either (we had some bonuses in those ranges but the rankings are also based in part by scouting observations after that from the "Tricky" league and the Dominican instructional league).

I would personally prefer getting 6 $500K guys instead of 1 $3 million guy. The problem this year is getting none of either beyond Yhoswar Garcia. We never seem to take advantage of the period when bonuses were unlimited and now we clearly seem to be having issues within the pool system too. I used to think our scouts were better than average at these low dollar signings, but since they have kind of dried up after Sixto and Medina, it is possible we need to rethink the top of our operation. Results matter and we theoretically have been in the top 10 of spending the last 5 years and we don't have much to show for that compared to the other teams in the top 10.

[fish]

Anybody have the name of the catcher BA linked the Phils to?

[Squire]

Ricardo Perez, C, Venezuela

The two big Phillies international signings this year are expected to be Yamal Flores, a power-hitting corner outfielder with a strong arm from the Dominican Republic, and Perez, a lefthanded-hitting catcher from Venezuela. Perez has shown good bat control with the loft in his swing to grow into more power and projects to stick behind the plate with an arm that has ticked up to a slightly above-average tool. He trains with Yasser Mendez.

[fish]

Thanks. At least it feels better than the outcome of the current signing period.

[Squire]

For what its worth....Ricardo Perez was the very first guy on the catchers list... (also it was not alphabetical, I checked).

[Austinfan]

The wild card the next few years is Venezuela, because most teams have pulled their people, the Phillies seemed to be more committed, and they may get the inside track on some players - but it's unlikely a lot of Venezuelan players, outside of the standout few, will be rated as high as they should be b/c it's become so hard to scout them.

[fish]

The wild card the next few years is Venezuela, because most teams have pulled their people, the Phillies seemed to be more committed, and they may get the inside track on some players - but it's unlikely a lot of Venezuelan players, outside of the standout few, will be rated as high as they should be b/c it's become so hard to scout them.

We’ve hopes that would be the case for years now...no such luck. Smart/good teams don’t miss finding good talent, no matter where they are.

[Austinfan]

If we landed anyone promising from Venezuela these days who is under the radar (i.e. not an obvious top athlete), you won't know for two years.

It's such a mess there that you'd have to get the kid to the DSL before even knowing what you have, I doubt they're playing on a regular basis there or in exile (given the closest countries primarily play soccer).

[andyb]

One more prospect available in Cuban SS Dyan Jorge:
https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1228066049595236373

Seems to be a defense first SS in the mold of Garcia with a bit more speed. Slotted 15th on the current MLB list for 2019 so he is probably a $1 million prospect, maybe a bit more. He may not get more money by waiting till 2020 like some prospects since several teams including the Phillies would have room left to sign him in 2019.

Also, small update from Fangraphs though their early 2020 list never goes that deep:

Updated July 2 Prospect Rankings

[andyb]

I missed this overview from a week ago on the Phillies international history. Since 1997 our international signings are 13th in MLB in WAR. Since 2010, however, we are near the bottom (28th though the last half of teams has almost nothing). Clearly there is much more time for those post 2010 signings to produce (and Sixto is the best of those post-2010 prospects), but it is also pretty clear the last 10 years have not been that productive since we have theoretically been among the top half of spenders.

Phillies international signings: their share of major league talent, but no...

[Austinfan]

That's more of an indictment of 2010-2014, since it's unlikely that all but a few outliers have made the ML in 4 or less seasons out of LA (signed at 16 in 2015 would make you 20 in 2019).

[andyb]

Hard to spin the recent years as good other than Sixto though. The most recent years are just as incomplete for everyone and ranking behind most teams is not good. It is not a final grade, but it is not a good interim grade (and it seems we are adding a pretty mediocre class for 2019).

If it does not improve it might be time to kick Sal upstairs a bit and reduce his role. He may be a good scout, but the Phillies are just not getting an above average share of talent in Latin America for their money.

[fish]

If it does not improve it might be time to kick Sal upstairs a bit and reduce his role. He may be a good scout, but the Phillies are just not getting an above average share of talent in Latin America for their money.

Kudos to Sal for that couple year stretch where he found some useful guys on a shoestring budget, but he’s spent an awful lot of bad money and the closest thing he has to a hit on any big bonus signing is Morales in Low A. Only the Phillies would let someone with that kind of track record keep spending their money. Does anyone even remember who the last international scouting director was? Ruben Amaro sr.?