July 2, 2018 International Signing Period

[julio]

Jesse Sanchez (JesseSanchezMLB)

[andyb]

Here is the annual "let's trade for allocations plea". With our pool at $3.949 million we already have Castillo at $1.6 million and Ortega at maybe 575K. We could be over $3 million already assuming most of our top 6 are in the $200K-$500K range. An extra million would be nice. This is the last year where the price for allocations should be modest with teams still in the penalty.

[Austinfan]

I'm sure we'll trade for allocations, but the odds are the big money guys are already off the table, so like last year, Klentak will bid his time as teams with allocations but limited options to spend them will lower their price.

Phillies seem to have a very long list of targets each year so they can use every dime they can find.

[andyb]

I'm sure we'll trade for allocations, but the odds are the big money guys are already off the table, so like last year, Klentak will bid his time as teams with allocations but limited options to spend them will lower their price.

Phillies seem to have a very long list of targets each year so they can use every dime they can find.

That is no excuse. A team should plan its allocation trades to sign the best prospects we can. So if we have $5 million dollars of prospects waiting to sign then we should have already had conversations about trading for allocations to sign them. What they did last year allowed them to spend every dime. It is unclear, however, that they did not miss out on prospects because it took them a long time to trade for those allocations.

When 90% of the talent signs in a very short period it is important to have resources to sign that talent during that short period.

[bigegypt0417]

Here is the annual "let's trade for allocations plea". With our pool at $3.949 million we already have Castillo at $1.6 million and Ortega at maybe 575K. We could be over $3 million already assuming most of our top 6 are in the $200K-$500K range. An extra million would be nice. This is the last year where the price for allocations should be modest with teams still in the penalty.

We did last so you maybe this could be a "let's trade for allocation again" plea.

[bigegypt0417]

I'm sure we'll trade for allocations, but the odds are the big money guys are already off the table, so like last year, Klentak will bid his time as teams with allocations but limited options to spend them will lower their price.

Phillies seem to have a very long list of targets each year so they can use every dime they can find.

That is no excuse. A team should plan its allocation trades to sign the best prospects we can.
When 90% of the talent signs in a very short period it is important to have resources to sign that talent during that short period.

Are you of the opinion they wouldn't trade for the allocation if they were looking to sign some available talent? Your premise is built on the idea the Phillies don't sign players because they wont trade for allocation which isn't really factual.

The Phillies have a strategy you don't agree with...I think that's the issue.

[andyb]

Are you of the opinion they wouldn't trade for the allocation if they were looking to sign some available talent? Your premise is built on the idea the Phillies don't sign players because they wont trade for allocation which isn't really factual.

The Phillies have a strategy you don't agree with...I think that's the issue.

There is a possibility that waiting to trade for allocations would mean losing out on available talent. Wouldn't you want them to spend the most they can and have the money available when the talent is available. Or do you just blindly agree with everything the Phillies do....

And they actually did not max out last year. They could have traded for a million more dollars when those trades were very inexpensive. It was only B+ execution last year. They could have done better.

[bigegypt0417]

Are you of the opinion they wouldn't trade for the allocation if they were looking to sign some available talent? Your premise is built on the idea the Phillies don't sign players because they wont trade for allocation which isn't really factual.

The Phillies have a strategy you don't agree with...I think that's the issue.

There is a possibility that waiting to trade for allocations would mean losing out on available talent. Wouldn't you want them to spend the most they can and have the money available when the talent is available. Or do you just blindly agree with everything the Phillies do....

And they actually did not max out last year. They could have traded for a million more dollars when those trades were very inexpensive. It was only B+ execution last year. They could have done better.

My question is simple...if there were available players that the Phillies wanted and who wanted to sign with the Phillies, do you believe they wouldn't make the moves to add the money to make it happen?

That is my basic question...

[andyb]

My question is simple...if there were available players that the Phillies wanted and who wanted to sign with the Phillies, do you believe they wouldn't make the moves to add the money to make it happen?

Yes if they hesitated. They were less aggressive than they should have been last year. They could have spent 8 million versus 7 million and they didn't.

You assume perfect execution. There is no perfect. Maximizing what they can sign should be a goal every time. Do you suggest they not spend $500K of their draft allocation pool? Why is it too hard to simply agree that sometimes they get beat for prospects they want because there are 30 teams out there.

Last year was B+ execution. We had no money limitations and did not spend all we could. That does not mean we did not get a decent class. But it does mean we could easily have been more aggressive and spent more. Having dollars at the end of the signing period when there is less talent available is not as good as having the money at the beginning when you can spent it early OR late.

The basic question for you is why don't you want the Phillies to maximize their resources every single year?

[Squire]

In addition the initial 6, BA says we signed a SS from the DR by the name of Kelvin Pichardo

[Squire]

and Catcher Victor Diaz from the Dominican Republic - Got a 250K Bonus

[Austinfan]

My suspicion is most of these deals are lined up well before the deadline, and if the Phillies needed the additional allocations to sign someone they liked, they would have already obtained those allocations. I'm convinced from past seasons that they're skeptical of the highest priced guys most years and focus on landing multiple good bonus babies instead of one big signing (i.e. once past the top 2-3 players every year, you probably over pay for the next 5-10).

Notice they still landed 4 of the top 50, looking at past lists, the odds don't change much after a couple sure things - the variance in 16 year olds is so great you're better off going for volume (and you can't "break the bank" anymore). If they had been able to line up more top 50 guys, they would have found the money to pay them, they certainly have carte blanche to spend these days - but there are 29 other teams looking for talent.

[Squire]

Agree that the Phillies have deals lined up to cover the bonuses they are agreeing to today. Otherwise, it would be reckless in a way that they previously have not exhibited. I'm fairly certain that you can ONLY trade for allocation money during the year in which you are trading for it. So it was not permissible under the rules to do those deals prior to today. I do see now that the Red Sox and Reds did a deal today for pool money.

[bigegypt0417]

You assume perfect execution. There is no perfect. Maximizing what they can sign should be a goal every time. Do you suggest they not spend $500K of their draft allocation pool? Why is it too hard to simply agree that sometimes they get beat for prospects they want because there are 30 teams out there.

Last year was B+ execution. We had no money limitations and did not spend all we could. That does not mean we did not get a decent class. But it does mean we could easily have been more aggressive and spent more. Having dollars at the end of the signing period when there is less talent available is not as good as having the money at the beginning when you can spent it early OR late.

The basic question for you is why don't you want the Phillies to maximize their resources every single year?

I'm not assuming anything. I'm pretty much telling you that trading for allocation would not have been an obstacle in signing players who wanted to sign. Your grade is based on the idea that the Phillies allowed talent to get away because they didn't want to spend for it. They did spend. You just don't like the way they did it.

This statement is not something I believe you can refute.

The Phillies did not lose players that wanted to sign here because of money. If you have information to the contrary I'd love to see it.

[Squire]

Yeuri Corona, SS, Dominican Republic

[andyb]

I'm pretty much telling you that trading for allocation would not have been an obstacle in signing players who wanted to sign.

Well then if they are only signing $3.9 million worth of players then they are not maximizing what they can do. The Phillies almost assuredly lost players last year because other teams bid more. That is how free agency with pool limits work. Ignoring that is just wishful thinking or blind allegiance that whatever the team does is the best they could have done. Why are you comfortable with the Yankees outspending us when we have been playing by the same rules as they are?

The problem is they did not spend enough. I actually like it when they spread $500K bonuses around. We could have had 2 more $500K players last year. Most likely they did not max out because other teams beat us to those players (or Sal did not have the assurance that he could spend the money in time to get the players).

It looks like we are getting 1 of the top 30 players. 3 of the top 50. There are only about 15 teams competing seriously for top talent. Seems we are on a course for a pretty average class. Let's see if they actually trade for the maximum allocation. There is no reason not to this year (other than poor execution).

[andyb]

MLB has Alexis Azuaje at $450K.

[Austinfan]

Money is not a constraint, that was made clear this offseason.
So the constraint has to be players they want that haven't been locked up.
Just because BA values someone doesn't mean Sal does, and Sal has a better track record than BA.

They have plenty of 3rd tier prospects they can deal for allocations, and I expect they will do so as the year progresses, they kept finding money last year to sign additional players.
But they're not going to overpay for marginal prospects just to satisfy AndyB's need to spend the maximum possible amount.

[andyb]

Spending an extra 2 million does not mean signing marginal prospects. It means telling Sal to sign the best $5.9 million he can rather than $3.9 million. I am guessing Sal would prefer more money.

Now if the Phillies are perfectly willing to spend the money, it means they are being out-executed for some prospects that they should sign. This is what most likely happened. Other teams beat us to prospects and maybe Sal could have gotten them if he had a green light earlier (like a year in advance). And frankly if we are talking money for mediocre prospects I would bet the last million we spent this year (while certainly interesting with Aussie and French and Asian prospects) was less cost-effective than the money we spent in July when all the best talent was available. Only time will tell of course.

[julio]

This is what I have so far - please let me know if something here is in error, or if you can fill in data (I've included Gherbaz because he's rumored to be signing, although he's not newly-eligible; I've also listed today as the signing date for all players with reported bonuses - these will likely change a bit when official signings are posted):

Player	Position	Signed	Nationality	Birth	Age	Bonus
Castillo, Starlyn	RHP	7/2/18	Dominican	2/4/02	16	1,600,000
Ortega, Fernando	RHP		Dominican	10/10/01	16
Angulo, Joalbert	LHP	7/2/18	Venezuela	10/30/01	16	425,000
Azuaje, Alexeis	SS	7/2/18	Venezuela		16	450,000
Nava, Andrick	C	7/2/18	Venezuela			400,000
Vina, Javier	C	7/2/18	Venezuela			300,000
Pichardo, Kelvin	SS		Dominican
Diaz, Victor	C	7/2/18	Dominican			250,000
Corona, Yeuri	SS		Dominican
Gherbaz, Wilson	RHP		Venezuela
					Bonuses Total:	3,425,000
					Pool:	3,949,000
					Remaining:	524,000