July 2, 2017 International Signing Period

[andyb]

You're confusing average return with marginal return.

No I am not. The criticism with the Phillies starts with the planning on the front end. If they had planned to add allocations at the beginning they would be getting average return since they would have signed another top 50 talent or two (or a better talent).

Plus your statement that on average teams get 1 WAR out of $5 million in international spending likely underestimates the WAR substantially. It is probably more like 10 WAR for every $5 million in international spending. Look at what the Phillies got in 2017 alone: Hernandez (3.1), Galvis (1.3), Neris (2.0), Garcia (2.0), Ramos (0.5).

It actually does not matter that all these guys were relatively inexpensive. All international spending counts and I am guessing 10 WAR for $5 million is conservative when you add up all 30-60 guys signed each year. Other international prospects also deliver trade value before they give you WAR.

You keep arguing to spend less. That is the confusing part. Klentak is not infallible. The last 2 years he could have spent more internationally and it is a modest problem that he has not.

[Austinfan]

That's a bad calculation. You're looking at additions over a number of years, some of whom weren't LA acquisitions but added later as waiver pickups or street free agents.
And you need to separate the "long-shots" who are a matter of field work and get paid little or nothing (I'll bet they look at 1,000 players for every 30-40 they sign each year), and bonus players.
You'll sign the Sixto's irrespective of how much money you spend on bonus prospects in LA. So their WAR shouldn't be included in determining how much to spend.

A better method would be to look at say 2006-2010, how much was spent on LA players (not Cubans, and excluding those like Altuve who were essentially "free") and how much WAR have they generated.
But I don't think anyone has done that study.
Has any major bonus LA player (>$100k) made it to the Show for the Phillies?
It seems most of our LA players were "minimum cost" purchases.

[andyb]

That's a bad calculation. You're looking at additions over a number of years, some of whom weren't LA acquisitions but added later as waiver pickups or street free agents.
And you need to separate the "long-shots" who are a matter of field work and get paid little or nothing (I'll bet they look at 1,000 players for every 30-40 they sign each year), and bonus players.
You'll sign the Sixto's irrespective of how much money you spend on bonus prospects in LA. So their WAR shouldn't be included in determining how much to spend.

A better method would be to look at say 2006-2010, how much was spent on LA players (not Cubans, and excluding those like Altuve who were essentially "free") and how much WAR have they generated.
But I don't think anyone has done that study.
Has any major bonus LA player (>$100k) made it to the Show for the Phillies?
It seems most of our LA players were "minimum cost" purchases.

Again no. Was looking at only the Phillies' original signings and not counting value received in trades. And no again one does not need to separate the longshots. I am guessing the best $/WAR strategy is in the low dollar guys. But one cannot physically sign 500 of them for $10K per year. Plus the high priced guys do produce more actual WAR than the low priced guys. So to accumulate more WAR one needs more hig priced guys.

It is your math that is completely wrong because you do not take into account scarcity of star talent. The goal here is to accumulate the most WAR possible for a given signing budget.

And there are definitely high dollar Phillies signings over the years that have made it. Carlos Silva going back a ways. Carlos Carrasco today. Domingo Santana more recently. Jonathan Villar was like $100K but that would be $300K today. Silva and Carrasco would be million dollar guys today. Carrasco alone has been worth 16.1 WAR so far. Just because players get traded does not mean they don't have value.

[julio]

List of signed players updated again; MLBAM appears to be playing catch-up on transactions from July through the present. We're up to 25 names now:

Player	Position	Signed	Nationality	Birth	Age	Bonus
Betancourt, Carlos	RHP	7/2/17	Venezuela	3/27/01	16	460,000
Candelo, Luis	RHP	9/12/17		6/27/97	20
Cruz, Cristofer	RHP	7/3/17	Dominican	4/15/99	18
Garcia, Luis	SS	7/2/17	Dominican	10/1/00	16	2,500,000
Gomez, Luis	RHP	7/14/17	Venezuela	5/14/01	16
Gonzalez, Oscar	C	7/2/17	Venezuela		16	135,000
Gutierrez, Abrahan	C	12/5/17	Venezuela	8/31/99	18	350,000
Hernandez, Cristian	RHP	7/9/17	Venezuela	9/23/00	16
Hernandez, Joan	RHP	7/7/17	Dominican	7/7/99	18
Lima, Cristian	RHP	7/17/17	Dominican	7/5/00	17
Made, Alejandro	RHP	7/2/17	Dominican	12/29/97	19
Marin, Adrian	LHP	7/19/17	Venezuela	1/19/99	18
Mata, Cesar	OF	7/6/17		9/15/00	16
Morales, Efrain	RHP	9/5/17	Mexico	6/26/01	16
Ortega, Junior	OF	9/13/17	Dominican	9/30/99	18
Palma, Jhonny	LHP	8/2/17	Venezuela	9/18/00	16
Parraga, Roger	RHP	7/6/17		2/15/01	16
Puello, Alfonso	RHP	7/2/17	Dominican	10/10/00	16	460,000
Ramirez, Pedro	OF	7/7/17	Dominican	2/14/00	17
Reyes, Andy	RHP	7/14/17	Dominican	3/11/00	17
Rodriguez, Cesar	C	7/2/17	Venezuela	12/26/00	16	500,000
Tamariz, Diego	RHP	7/2/17	Venezuela			10,000
Torres, Alberto	LHP	7/2/17	Columbia	4/28/01	16	90,000
Vargas, Victor	RHP	7/2/17	Columbia	9/3/00	16	525,000
Vilchez, Daniel	RHP	9/11/17		10/4/00	16

[Squire]

Just wanted to say thanks to julio for this good work.

[California_Dreamin]

Agreed, julio! This is always one of the first threads I come to.

[gmwannabe]

thanks also from here Julio. nice work to get the info. the most interesting one on the list here is Lima. supposedly a Pedro clone. Wouldn't that be a find.
gm

[allentown]

the most interesting one on the list here is Lima. supposedly a Pedro clone. Wouldn't that be a find.

I don't see how a guy who hasn't even pitched at any pro level can seriously be described as a Pedro clone.

[gmwannabe]

He is. i'm talking about Pedro Javier. he works at the print shop down the street from us. looks just like Lima. Still looks like a possible prospect class. you never know. the more you sign the more one or two can make it. Keep it up Sal.
Gm

[andyb]

Rangers sign a 16-year-old SS from the Bahamas for $800K, so between this signing and the Yenci Pena signing they have used up close to $1.3 million of the allocations they acquired for Ohtani. So they still have close to $2 million left with the major unsigned prospects including Juan Contreras from the Braves, Cuban Julio Pablo Martinez and Dominican Jelfry Marte. Yankees have a bunch of allocation room left as well.

Rangers Agree To Sign Shortstop Keithron Moss | BaseballAmerica.com

[Squire]

Jelfry Marte signed with the Rays today. In the half million range I think.

[andyb]

Jelfry Marte signed with the Rays today. In the half million range I think.

Looks like it was for $800K ("or maybe a little more") and they only had $440K in allocations left so they will need to execute a trade if they have not already done it.

Rays sign international free agent Jelfry Marte

[Squire]

Rays got space in a trade with the Mariners today (who as you might imagine have alot of space right now)

[andyb]

Deal was likely for $500K in allocations because they needed more than $250K. Prospect is someone they traded last year and re-acquired. Seems a LOOGY or back end starter type so not that good a prospect.

Edit - deal was for $1 million in allocations

[Austinfan]

Probably a contingent agreement, if we sign x, you'll trade us "y" amount of allocations for agreed upon player.
Wouldn't surprise me if Klentak has similar deals lined up if he can sign a remaining LA prospect.

[andyb]

Now the Indians get $500K in allocations from the Mariners for a reliever of little value.

Mariners Acquire Shawn Armstrong

Clearly there is talent out there that other teams feel is worth signing. Probably time to stop rationalizing that this is all part of Klentak's strategy. I think the more likely scenario is that they chose to plan for signing $5-$6 million of prospects and did not even try that hard to find prospects beyond that. I don't think this is a grand strategy. It is more middling execution of their international strategy. We have now reached the point where the number of high end prospects is dwindling. The Phillies, however, have had ample opportunity to acquire allocations and have decided to be less aggressive than I think they should be.

[Austinfan]

The Phillies, however, have had ample opportunity to acquire allocations and have decided to be less aggressive than I think they should be.

And that is the crux of the matter, you think there are opportunities worth pursuing that they haven't seized.

But none of us really know, because these negotiations are basically secret, and no reporter is going to spend his time checking out hundreds of deals for 16 year olds.
Nor are we privy to what goes on behind closed doors at the CBP offices.

[allentown]

It has nothing to do with secret meetings behind closed doors. We know most of the major available guys. We know what extra allocation is going for. In fact, we know that the Phillies still have unused allocation.

[andyb]

The Phillies, however, have had ample opportunity to acquire allocations and have decided to be less aggressive than I think they should be.

And that is the crux of the matter, you think there are opportunities worth pursuing that they haven't seized.

Not true at all. Multiple teams have seen the need to acquire allocations. Few teams could do it with the financial resources and depth prospects that the Phillies have. Clearly the Phillies have chosen not to pursue this. Other teams disagree with this strategy though. It seems every post of your is a knee jerk defense of everything Klentak does rather than an analysis of the plusses and minuses of that decision. You don't seem to have any argument here other than "Klentak decided not to do it so it must be a bad idea".

Both the 2016 and 2017 international signing years look like they will end up with the Phillies spending less than 70% of what they could potentially spend. It is a legitimate question to ask why.

[fish]

I think you are also valuing a lottery ticket over a commodity with a significant likelihood of contributing at the big league level. Shawn Armstrong may be a dime a dozen, but he has good stuff and he's at the highest level of the system. My memory may be anecdotal, but I think that's true for most guys that get traded for allocation. As fans, the unsigned prospect is more interesting than the fringy AAAA big leaguer. But I don't think teams value them the same way. Big league orgs probably value the at or near big league ready guy more than the chance to sign an international lottery ticket - especially at this point in the international free agent season when the leftovers probably have lower odds for success than the options at the start of the signing period. If there is a guy they really like, then by all means, it's worth the trade.