July 2, 2017 International Signing Period

zambonir 2017-12-01 02:43:06 UTC #484

I just can't imagine they aren't going to spend if the opportunity is there to spend. It is not the same thing as not wanting to spend an extra $20 million on major league salaries (or Ohtani for that matter).

But it is still possible that some of those Braves players are just not going to sign with the Phillies, or that the Phillies don't like them.

I just don't see how it can be true that signing any player who is out there is an automatic good, or that there would be no cap on how many players you can develop. At some point it's the same as drafting guys in the 40th round. We've seen Klentak's quotes when they traded for allocations (something they have already done) and at other times. He has consistently said he's a believer in taking full advantage of the int'l market, so is a he a fraud, or are there other reasons? For me this is an Occam's Razor type thing, it just doesn't make any sense that, if Sal has players he wants to get and they cost X, that Klentak would deny him the chance to get them for any reason, but especially not because they are cheap. If that is the case, that means the front office doesn't value international talent (or a specific player) the same way as Sal, or that they think the things they have to trade are more valuable than the allocation (unlikely) or they can't get a deal done (possible but improbable).

Austinfan 2017-12-01 04:15:45 UTC #485

Given Middleton, I doubt being "cheap" is an issue with the Phillies anymore, Giles and Wade are long gone.
But a lot of LA deals are done under the table, and it may come down to whether Sal's people have the contacts in the network to land the players he likes.
And there's no point in throwing money at players you don't like.

andyb 2017-12-01 04:45:11 UTC #486

In general dollars spent on the draft or on young international players are much more efficient than dollars spent elsewhere. An entire draft costs $10 to $15 million. International spending is $5 million a year. Teams only need 2-3 WAR out of that entire expenditure for the dollars to go farther than free agent and arbitration dollars.

This is why teams should try to max out those two areas of expenditure. Especially teams that can easily spend an extra $3 million without breaking their international budget.

Do we judge Klentak completely since the period is not over? No. But he failed to do it last year so that experience is not promising. And last year had many extra Cuban prospects in the class so there was plenty of opportunity to spend.

As for the Braves prospects, we won't get all of them but we should get some. Money talks in these situations. We have it. More than 10 teams are in the penalty and another few teams like the Orioles have spent their money already or do not choose to spend. So the Phillies are competing with only a half dozen teams here. We are among the least aggressive of those teams.

The reality is they just may not be that good at competing for international talent.

andyb 2017-12-01 04:52:24 UTC #487

Those are both looking at below average drafts when draft slots are considered (and the large bonus pools from 2016). There was no way for the Phillies to completely fail in 2016 with so much money to spend. Romero looks like a good pick but remember both he and Irvin cost $800K. Money helps. It is just the first $10 million we spent that looks like we chose wrong. Gowdy getting hurt is bad luck, but Moniak sure looks like one of the worst top picks in a while. That to me is a failure unless Moniak turns it around. Hitting on later picks is often luck. Teams should be judged on their top picks. I never liked the Randolph pick because of his defensive projection. Senzel should have been our pick in 2016 and the jury is out but reviews are very mixed on Haseley. First round picks in the top 10 also have greater success rates than first round picks in the back half of the round.

For all the criticism Amaro took, he did preside over the drafts that got us Crawford and Nola (both great choices especially considering where they were selected) and his last year of trading (Hamels, Rollins, Papelbon) is sure looking better than Klentak's first year (Giles then complete indecision at his first deadline). I don't think Amaro on balance was a good GM, but he certainly got better over time.

zambonir 2017-12-01 05:37:58 UTC #488

haha, can't make this stuff up

zambonir 2017-12-01 05:40:22 UTC #489

Well, that's another possibility. They've never had a presence outside Latin America and their strengths are in particular regions. The way people talk about it it sometimes seems like they don't sign anyone other than the people Sal gets personally. It still wouldn't surprise me to see the whole apparatus changed up in the next year or two.

zambonir 2017-12-01 05:42:07 UTC #490

2015 was not a Klentak draft, incidentally. Not MacPhail either.

julio 2017-12-01 05:44:10 UTC #491

Never let the facts get in the way of a good story, Harry.

zambonir 2017-12-01 05:47:53 UTC #492

What would we talk about if we only stuck to the facts?

To be fair it was Almaraz's first draft. But he wasn't Klentak's hire...

We can't meaningfully discuss any of this for another three years really. Both Almaraz and Klentak could be out of a job by then. But I think and hope the GM will get us where we wanna be.

andyb 2017-12-01 13:57:17 UTC #493

But it was an Almaraz draft. Made that point in a previous post and Almaraz theoretically shares a Klentak philosophy towards performance and strike zone discipline over raw tools. So it made sense for Klentak to keep him.

allentown 2017-12-01 15:14:16 UTC #494

I think you're reaching to defend Klentak. Yes just signing any player off the street isn't necessarily a plus, but most of these Braves prospects were plus-rated prospects and still are. Two of these guys are plus 3B prospects. The Phillies have a crying need for 3B prospects. Middleton isn't a defense. It's already been reported that he wanted to spend this winter and that MacPhail/Klentak talked him out of it. The Phillies have been presented with an unexpected opportunity to fill a gaping hole in the organization and Klentak needs to seize the opportunity.

julio 2017-12-01 16:07:38 UTC #495

Y'all are arguing about process.

I think we all would agree that, long-term, the only thing that matters is results. If the club improves, becomes competitive, reaches the post-season, etc.... then quibbles over_how_ they achieve that are pointless.

But it's too soon to evaluate the GM's results on the field; that only makes sense after a period of several years. So we have a choice; we can attempt interim evaluation, based on process (and driven by our own assumptions about what is "appropriate" process), or we can bide our time.

This is a discussion forum, so one really can't expect people to "bide their time" on this. But that said, I think it's reasonable to observe that arguments about process (as opposed to results), conducted by fans who may, or may not, know what they're talking about... well, these arguments are what they are.

Personally... I'll bide my time. We'll see what happens; I don't expect to drop dead before MacPhail/Klentak have enough years to be fairly judged on their results on the field. However, that time is not now, IMHO.

zambonir 2017-12-01 16:16:39 UTC #496

He should seize the opportunity. There's nothing to argue about really. If he fails to do so, we can then argue about whether the players didn't want to sign here or the Phillies didn't like the players or (if applicable) they failed to obtain the allocation to get it done or if the GM just doesn't like international players. But we don't know.

Middleton wanted to sign Darvish or Martinez or whoever, just like he wanted a .500 team last year. Klentak thinks that's a bad idea because of the age, expense and contract years. There's no indication from that that Klentak isn't willing to spend on international free agents, but if he isn't, what's the reason? That's what I don't get. It's easy to say it's bad not to sign these guys but if they don't, we have to know the reason for that decision to criticize the decision. Like, I know exactly why they aren't going to sign Darvish (both from the Phillies' end and the player end).

Austinfan 2017-12-01 16:26:18 UTC #497

The point about Middleton is whatever the motives are for what Klentak chooses to do, the organization being "cheap" no longer applies.
So unless Klentak is a total doofus, he has his reasons.

andyb 2017-12-01 16:41:18 UTC #498

The organization being cheap has not applied for 20 years (since Thome essentially). The organization being unwise about how they allocate their revenues is a different question and DOES apply here. Not allocating the revenues towards signing additional international free agents would be a waste of resources and sabermetrically "dumb".

zambonir 2017-12-01 16:44:51 UTC #499

If you didn't click on the tweet I posted before, here's the original article. I don't know how seriously a nine month-old interview should really be taken - at least the Phillies are more appealing now than they were then! - but it's still funny. And they still aren't signing him.

MLB.com: What cities are you curious about and would like to see?
Ohtani: The Rocky Balboa statue, I want a picture of that.
MLB.com: Philadelphia has a baseball team, you know.
Ohtani: No, I just want to visit there.

andyb 2017-12-01 17:08:05 UTC #500

Who knows whether this is true of course. Promise him a statue like Rocky Balboa. Give him the key to the city. And unlimited cheesesteaks.

zambonir 2017-12-01 17:25:52 UTC #501

How many Japanese stars are there? Unless he also wants to be a team's first Japanese star, in which case, sure, sitting pretty in Philadelphia!

andyb 2017-12-01 17:40:43 UTC #502

I think that is more agent-speak to get all 30 teams to bid for him than anything else. While of course it is not about the money, the bigger the spectacle here will lead to the bigger endorsement contracts. $100 million in endorsements (if not more) could easily swamp a measly $3 million contract offer.

tom81 2017-12-01 17:53:25 UTC #503

Thinks should get more interesting soon.